Another point of view regarding polling data. Why are the polls still pointing to GQP wave?

[usaf-vet]

This Michael Moore commentary explores the reason polls are losing their accuracy.

One reason is cell phones and the fact that MOST people will not answer a cell call from an unknown number.



https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelmoore/p/midterm-tsunami-truth-21?r=qgmem&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

[rso]

1. GQP

Actually, I don’t think that the polls are pointing to a GQP “wave”.

[usaf-vet]

5. Watch this video from a another DU post today.

Last edited Tue Oct 18, 2022, 12:33 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217262936

[RainCaster]

2. When I do answer strange numbers, I talk like a repuke

Let the poll morons pretend that the GOP is coming back.

[iemanja]

3. In the past, they've typically underestimated GOP votes.

But there was that congressional race in NY in which they undercounted Democratic votes.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

9. "undercounted"? Pollsters don't count votes. Are you talking scrutineers or pollsters?

Pollsters are not poll workers.

It's an example of English language awfulness (a trait of all languages) that two very different things are both called "polls". They are similar only in that people are asked their opinion, but the effects are vastly different. Opinion polls are inconsequential except when use to try to skew votes cast or not cast at election day polling (voting) stations, which are very consequential.

[iemanja]

10. I meant unestimated

based on their polling data. It was a figment of speech.

[Ocelot II]

4. That makes sense. A lot of people have ditched their land lines,

including me - all I ever got on that phone was telemarketing calls and I couldn't see any reason to keep it any more. The demographic that keeps using land lines probably is mostly older, but even a lot of us old people have ditched them. So it will be hard to get accurate polling data if they can't reach more people and if most don't answer unknown cell calls.

[SWBTATTReg]

6. These people who are desperately trying to steer potential voters from voting against

repugs in the general election by constantly plugging this (polls are so called favoring repugs, which in not true IMHO).

With the constant onslaught of garbage news about tRUMP and his illegal actions day in, day out, how can it be otherwise (the polls against repugs)?

And I don't have any faith or standing in anything michael moore has to say anyways. Who appointed him to be a spokesperson? Is he some kind of super smart, super genius, know-it-all on all things and knows what's going to happen?

[Walleye]

7. The news always reports the polls like they are a real thing

Like so-and-so moved ahead today in the race for such and such. Nobody has moved anywhere until the election actually happens. More and more that is the only poll that counts. I know estimates have been good in the past but they’re not that good anymore. And they are not actual vote counts

[Sympthsical]

8. The polls aren't pointing to a wave

Man, someone mashed down hard on the panic button today. A few polls show a slight Republican advantage and everyone starts losing their minds. It's like the Joker is running Gallup all of a sudden. "I am agent of chaos. Watch me tick up Republicans by two points. It's not part of their plan."

Deep breaths.

[global1]

11. The MSM Is In The 'We Have To Keep The Races Close' Mode Because....

it gets people to watch and creates ratings and money for them.

Most polls I hear about now are 'to close to call'. I just can't believe any of the polls.

Probably best not to listen to them.

[wiggs]

12. The question is, do dems not answer more than goprs. Do they do a poll to find out? nt

[treestar]

13. I wonder why we have to know

like why pay attention to polls at all? Why do they take them? President Obama said he did not pay attention to them and could not afford to. People are influenced by them. That's why the M$M does it.

[doc03]

14. It appears to me the abortion issue is not as important to

women as we have been led to believe. If it was it would be a blue wave. Usually the polls are pretty
accurate. If they were reporting Democrats ahead there wouldn't be any discussion about their accuracy.
The only poll that matters is on election day we shall see.

[PortTack]

18. See post #17

But yes, the only poll that matters is Election Day!

[Claustrum]

15. LOL.... wave used to mean gaining 40+ seats in the house and a couple in senate.

Somehow, republicans gaining like 10 seats in the house and 1 or none in the senate is a "red wave".

[awesomerwb1]

16. MAGAts lie

[PortTack]

17. Oh but yesterday here on DU..a very long and rather nasty thread about why we should trust

The polls and stop doubting their accuracy.

Polls might be a small snapshot…only if pollsters and poll aggregators are doing their job. It doesn’t take much digging to see that many of them are funded by the gqp.

Anyone who still looks at them thinking they are correct

Here’s some search suggestions if interested

What 538 did following the dem primary after Biden lost IA and NH
Special elections this year KS abortion issue, NY 19, AK and Palin
How many seats the polls said the Dems would gain in ‘22
Needless to say Clinton in ‘16 and the excuses they offered as to why it was off just a little tinny bit…looking at you 538.