Just my opinion, I believe close elections could be decided by the ROE decision.

[fightforfreedom]

I still believe women are pissed off and motivated to vote on this issue.

[FBaggins]

1. They could be...

But this assumes that people who are swayed by Dobbs in our direction are marginally less likely to be picked up by polling than others are.

Effectively the abortion version of “shy Trump” voters.

I haven’t seen any evidence for it( but I’m hoping it’s true.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

3. Dems have overperformed in all the special elections post -Dobbs

It doesn't exactly sound like polls are taking that into consideration, along with the big uptick in new voter registrations among women.

[Stuart G]

2. Anything is possible in an election...Proof...Trump was elected. Is that true? Yes, I didn't make

that one up. Did I?

[brooklynite]

4. Trump getting elected has nothing to do with "anything could happen"

There are very reasonable assessments which point to WHY Trump was elected in 2016.
- Voters unhappy with Democratic government performance (deserved or not)
- Trump as the "outsider" alternative to "insider" Hillary Clinton.
- Poor strategic decisions by the Clinton campaign regarding confirming intent of existing Obama voters.

[MLAA]

5. Uh add misogyny and Comey to the top of the list.

[fightforfreedom]

6. You forgot about Comey.

What he did made a difference. Many voters were undecided right up to the election. When Comey reopened the Clinton investigation right before the election, that's what people remembered when they voted.