Why look, a poll that shows the opposite of NYT's

[mcar]

Link to tweet

?s=20&t=ytjfqW4UZOR43gahyxg_eA

New @MorningConsult poll:

- Dems lead 48-45, unchanged from last week
- Biden approval 46%, highest in 2022
- Dems have growing enthusiasm edge, improving scores on the economy 4/

[Wounded Bear]

1. K & R...because we need some good news...nt

[Elessar Zappa]

2. Polls have been all over the place.

I take them all with a grain of salt but I must say that I believe we’ll outperform the polls this time around due to the overturning of Roe. I’m confident we’ll keep the Senate and I give us a 50/50 chance at the House.

[PCIntern]

3. Hey Steve Kornacki:

I’ll bet you a dollar you don’t put this on your morning newscast addendum… Oh, and by the way, fuck you but I only mean that rhetorically.

[PortTack]

5. Ha!! Good one

[samnsara]

6. awww.... i like him!

[sdfernando]

16. I did at 1st but have grown so weary of his schtick...

...and for a gay man he sure does seem to love them rethulicans.

[True Blue American]

48. I agree

And am sick of one sided polls, Fox and NYT. Phooey!

Did you hear CNN is moving Don Lemon and a couple of women I never heard of taking John Berman and Brianna off? My favorite morning show! Don has the lowest rated evening show.

[sdfernando]

56. Yes I did hear that.

I'm actually bummed because I do like his show. He is one of the better nigh-time shows although I don't watch any of them religiously. IMHO CNN is making some mistakes moving these people around.

[Polybius]

55. Steve Kornacki is gay?

I didn't know, cool.

[sdfernando]

57. Yes.....he came out publicly in 2011.

It on the Wikipedia article.

"Kornacki is gay and publicly came out in 2011 through a column in Salon"

[mcar]

32. I second that!

[brer cat]

4. Well, well, imagine that.

K&R

[JustAnotherGen]

7. The enthusiasm number - I agree with

I think if you are a Democratic Party Member and you are paying attention -

Everything that FDR and LBJ made happen - goes away.

Now is the not the time to retreat - it's time to advance.

[Sympthsical]

8. We can't trust this!

Because, uh, cell phones? We're on cell phones this morning, so the reason is cell phones.

I stopped answering my cell phone because I woke up and realized I had 33 different warranties on my car for some reason.

(I seriously have no idea how this election is about to go. It just feels close minus some undetected Dobbs input).

[Butterflylady]

20. 33 different warranties on my car.....lol.

We must have the same people calling and I don't even have a car.

[True Blue American]

49. LOL

That is a good one!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. Like that. If we can't believe bad polls because of cell

phones we can't believe good ones either. Hell we can't even post a bad poll anymore so what am I saying? lol

[Sympthsical]

27. I took a poll

One out of two of my kittens will try to eat cheese from a baking sheet.

The Havarti Midterm is a toss up.

Real Clear Politics has Havarti winning with 100%, but they didn't account for the cell phones and squirrel telegrams, so I don't know what to tell you.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

41. Are you a story teller/writer/comic? Very good !!!

[Farmer-Rick]

9. This is a more reliable poll

"Data points reflect 3-day moving averages of representative samples of at least 7,947 registered U.S. voters, with unweighted margins of error of +/-1 percentage point."

Their sample size is 10 times bigger than the NYT poll. And their margin of error is smaller. (Which are frequently correlated anyway. In that the smaller the sample the bigger the margin of error, usually, not all the time.)

[70sEraVet]

54. This has to affect the polls, too. For two years, the 'leader' of the Republican party has been busy

telling his supporters that the election process is rigged and that their votes won't matter. In this 'ballot or the bullet' talk, how many will just sit home on election day and oil their guns?

[LetMyPeopleVote]

10. I and others did NOT trust the NYT poll

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

13. That poll spent more time defending it then any poll I have ever seen and the sample was

Bullshit. The NYT did an Ohio poll I think yesterday where they sampled 500 voters by phone (landlines and some cells) it had a margin of error of 4.4...and they breathless reported that Vance made gains over Ryan and was ahead by 2.00 points of course that wasn't the real number even in the shitty poll...it was around 1.79 well within the margin of error.

The NYT sucks these days. Also, they over-sampled men without college who had trade school or high school...and played games with what made a likely voter. It was appalling and all these polls are put out to make us give up and stay home IMHO. Don't listen to them Roe your vote folks.

[agingdem]

22. any paper that has Maggie Haberman on its payroll

is pretty much crap in my book...

[Iris]

43. What's the deal with her?

[peppertree]

17. And you can see by the ethnicity %s that it's HEAVILY skewed toward White voters

If White voters are voting 40% Democratic (per NYT), and minorities, about 70% between them - there's no way the total average is 45%.

It would be around 48% (Repugs, 46%) - just like the Morning Consult poll above.

But that's the Times these days: All the news that's fit to fake.

[mcar]

33. When I saw that big shift in Independent women

from D to R, I knew it was nonsense.

[reACTIONary]

42. 792 Does not bode well, but...

... a poll of around 1,000 for even a large population size is about as good as it gets. Greater than 1,000 has diminishing marginal improvements.

[True Blue American]

50. But look at that younger group!

They are angry that the older ones have messed up so bad.

Union approval is at 61%.

[lees1975]

11. Morning Consult is a rolling, ongoing poll with large samples and a small margin of error

and they do business consulting too, which explains why they tend to avoid the political "trends and factors" and land on hard numbers.

[lees1975]

12. Remember Dick Morris?

[link:

|

All the "factors" and "I'm reading the polls." There are too many factors in this one, related to past history, to count much on running multiple models with factors to deliver an accurate result. Especially not in a poll of less than 1,000 people.

[BumRushDaShow]

28. "Remember Dick Morris?" I remember Gallup

who no longer does these anymore. I wonder why?





I think there was one final one after that (I had saved a copy on my other machine I think and don't have it handy and can't find it on the 'net although I know it's out there somewhere) where Romney was still winning and of course we know the end result. After that, Gallup had a huge mea culpa explanation and stopped doing this particular poll.

[ColinC]

14. Ground game. N/t

[mcar]

34. Definitely

[calimary]

15. Morning Consult is a credible poll.

Has been for a long time.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

18. Honestly, those polls agree with each other.

One poll showing 49-45 and the other showing 45-48 are pretty much in agreement. It's just that it's important which side is higher is highlighting the difference.

For example, if the poll was about how many people have ever gone bowling, and one poll said 49% and the other said 45%, we'd think that was perfectly normal.

[mcar]

35. Point being it makes no sense to focus on only one poll

Like the media is doing - and the media knows that. They want the horse race and want Republicans to win.

[peggysue2]

19. We're in the pollercoaster phase of the midterms

Which is why there's no need to panic on single polls, despite what pundits or forecasters shriek. We keep the pedal to the metal, encourage everyone we know to VOTE, VOTE, VOTE.

The same equation is in play: when turnout is BIG, Democrats WIN.

Btw, I've watched clips of the debate performances over the last few days. Abrams, Ryan and even conservative Indie McMullin in Utah wiped the floor with their opposition. Democrats and those defending our democratic Republic are driving the message home, spending money, churning out ads.

Now, it's up to us. VOTE!

[Silent3]

21. Amazing how so many people on DU love polls in our favor, yet get all conspiratorial when...

...they don't like the numbers.

I sure hope this poll is more accurate than the other poll that has Dems sliding, but I really have no clue.

Polling has been pretty inaccurate in the past few years, but it's not like pollsters are unaware of these problems. People should realize that most pollsters aren't pushing an agenda, they're simply struggling to adjust their models. It is theoretically possible to account, to some degree, for the vagaries of how many people bother to respond to polls and how willingness to respond to a poll might skew the results.

The same problems about cell phones, participation, demographics, the same shadowy "them" who supposedly answer to corporate elites and want to manipulate our hopes, exist both when we like the numbers and when we don't.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. +1

[scipan]

30. 538

74, 70 and 62 % chance of Dems holding the Senate, depending on which version is run: polls only, polls plus, and deluxe. So about a 2/3 chance.

I know a lot of people don't like 538, but show me something better that is an aggregate of polls.

Aggregates are just better than any one poll, which is at a minimum has a 1 in 20 chance of being wrong. They also tend to guard us against confirmation bias.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

House: 33, 27, and 27 % chance of winning, depending on which version. About 1/3 or a bit less.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/

Roe, Roe Roe your vote!

[Polybius]

45. The lower numbers are the latest updates

Chances are much worse than a month ago on 538 and PredictIt.

[Elessar Zappa]

31. I take all polls with a grain of salt.

They missed on Trump’s election and they missed badly on the Kansas abortion referendum. It’s not a conspiracy to hurt Dems or Repubs but they just haven’t been able to figure out an accurate model. It’s my belief that we’ll outperform the polls due to Roe being overturned but I won’t be too terribly shocked if I’m wrong and the opposite occurs. It’s just a crapshoot, imo. My best guess is we’ll keep the Senate and have a 50% chance of keeping the House.

[mcar]

36. Point being it makes no sense to focus on only one poll

Like the media and many on this board have been doing for the last few days.

[Silent3]

37. That's one of the points, yes...

...but there are also the point that conspiratorial thinking and not understanding how polls work doesn't help either.

[ZonkerHarris]

23. GOTV people! EVERYWHERE! SEND EVERYONE!

[Sogo]

26. Blue Tsunami !!!

[Cha]

29. So there's Hope.. I ran

ran into so much Doom & Gloom yesterday but it didn't deter me from eyes on the Prize!

GOTV BLUE! 💙

[BlueMTexpat]

47. I'm with you, Cha!

And my absentee ballot has already been received by the MD BOE!

[twodogsbarking]

38. A recent poll determined that many people don't believe recent polls.

Can you believe it.

[mcar]

39. ...

[Strelnikov_]

40. Dems in disarray!

Read it in the Daily News!

[The_Casual_Observer]

44. 538 and cook are pushing last January's "red wave" narrative

Still and pressing the the 50/50 bullshit. Naturally pushing 50/50 leaves them in the clear after it's all said and done.

[Beartracks]

51. Saw that yesterday. Gotta maintain the horse race narrative, after all.

That way:

1) Like you said, they're in the clear, like the weather man who says "50% chance of rain."

2) The aforementioned horse race narrative: good for media ratings!

3) If/when a Democrat wins, the conservative loser can immediately go about requesting recounts and claiming fraud, because: "The polls said it was a lot closer!"

[betsuni]

46. K&R

[uponit7771]

52. **MC UNWEIGHTED MARGINE OF ERROR IS 2%!!** NYT more was 4% !!! NYT should have NEVER EVER

... posted that punk ass poll with so low sample rate

[The Jungle 1]

53. The massive early turnout in Georgia may be the bellweather.

This round is tense.

[FSogol]

58. Make it so, DU. GOTV.