Independent women swing hard Republican

[angrychair]

This is just crushing me to my soul. You look at polling and white women, especially independent white women, are still strongly supporting Republicans and I just don't understand it and it truly worries me. That women, despite everything, will still swing hard towards Republicans, is crushing me.

"The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points"

Am I missing something? Is there still hope?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/17/us/politics/republicans-economy-nyt-siena-poll.html

[SheltieLover]

1. I don't believe this for one minute.

[angrychair]

4. I may spend to much time on Twitter

But it seems things are falling apart. It is really breaking me. I feel powerless. I think about the world my adult kids and my young nephews and my niece are going to be forced to live in and it's breaking my heart

[SheltieLover]

5. It is not falling apart!

Early voting numbers are off the charts!

Don't buy into media troll bs!

[Bettie]

7. I don't buy it either

but, I keep in mind that polls tend to be of people who answer their phones if they don't know who is on the other end.

How many people do you know who do that?

It's like them going into diners in right wing areas at 10 am and thinking they are getting a cross section of the US.

[Elessar Zappa]

2. I don't believe that poll.

I don’t believe that there was a 32 point swing among independent women in one month. It doesn’t make sense.

[live love laugh]

3. They're pre-justifying their unjustifiable "win".

[brush]

6. You saw an outlier poll perhaps, but I don't believe that.

IMO the Dobbs decision will be a significant factor in the election. Republicans and right leaning polls continue to downplay it and hype inflation as an issue, and it is, but Dobbs will factor in.

[angrychair]

9. I hear you

But in polling 71% of people were afraid for our democracy is at risk but only 7% felt it would influence their voting.

I honestly don't know how to make sense of that.

[brush]

20. And the threat to democracy is another issue...

that right-leaning polls are downplaying. We've seen in the last two presidential cycles that polling is hardly an exact science. Hillary was favored in 2016 and trump in 2020.

[TheRealNorth]

24. I think Stephanie Miller was talking about a poll this AM

Where more Republicans were worried about Democrats killing Democracy then the inverse..

We are truly dealing with a lunatic right.

[brush]

25. Yeah, those idiots have to be regurgitating something they heard...

from some republican rat fuckers on twitter or winger radio trying to switch the evilness of their own party onto the Democratic party.

Some of their audience is that gullible and susceptible to bizarro world disinformation.

[iemanja]

8. You're missing that it's a bad poll

inconsistent with others.

[angrychair]

16. That is my hope

But I will also admit I likely spend to much time on Twitter and spend a lot of time trying to bloke the neverending wave of Republican accounts that the Twitter algorithm throws at me for adding Dem accounts to my feed

[TheBlackAdder]

17. It seems low-lying suspicious fruit that no other animal will pick is ripe for many news agencies.

[Spazito]

10. The poll is an outlier...

Other polls are NOT showing this at all. Don't forget, this is Judith Miller's NYT, the same news outlet that hammered the 'but her emails' faux scandal constantly during the runup to the 2016 election.

[harumph]

11. No, it's repubs passing themselves off as independents.

I know many republicans that like to describe themselves as "independent" b/c
they want to appear discerning.

[Phoenix61]

26. This! How many republicans changed party affiliation after

Jan 6 to independent. They will count as an independent when polled but they aren’t. They’re a pissed of Republican who was always going to vote Republican.

[Polybius]

12. Wow

Too bad Dobbs wasn't released in late October instead of late June.

[rso]

13. Independent women

A 32 point swing in the poll in one month is highly unlikely.

[MontanaFarmer]

14. They screwed up their sample with women overall.

Other polls have shown a modest move to the GOP with independent women but these guys came up with 50 50 split overall with women. If you get that, you throw it away and start over.

[asiliveandbreathe]

15. NOPE, DOPE, DEM, HOPE..don't believe it..same ol', same ol'..

I was an Independent for years..the thought process is to not be beholden' to a party, but know the issues...I take that experience to the issues of today,,there is NO way Independent WOMEN are likely to lean so far right they have trouble walking upright..

I switched to the Democratic Party after Bush v Gore..that SC decision was an abomination..and to think some of the snakes then, are still around today spewing their venom as they slither around..

[WhiskeyGrinder]

18. White women voters have broken for the Democratic presidential candidate only twice since 1952, so

this shouldn't be a surprise.

[Solomon]

32. That's what I say. Lots of white women (A lot of them, not all so don't bash me) are some of the

biggest supporters of white supremacy, and patriarchy.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

34. No bashing from me. It's true.

[FSogol]

19. Just some ratfucking from the NY Times. Ignore it and GOTV.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

21. Polls have a margin of error.

The margins of error become much larger for small subgroups within the poll. If a poll has 800 people, probably what, 100 of them are independent women? Of course you'll see wild swings.

[Fiendish Thingy]

29. According to the cross tabs, 23% of 376 women surveyed identified as independent

That’s less than a hundred, which means the MOE was close to double digits, if not higher.

In other words, a meaningless statistic.

[mcar]

22. I don't believe this

One poll, it's just one poll.

[Joinfortmill]

23. Ignore the polls. Conservative women have historically said one thing and done another.

[Fiendish Thingy]

27. A 32 point swing in just a month? NFW. Nt

[PortTack]

28. That NYT Siena poll has been dissected here over the past few days and found to be

Quite the outlier.

[Takket]

30. That data is bad. Here's what I said on this the other day:

Indies don’t swing 32 points in a couple weeks. Either the first or second poll is flawed. Hopefully it is the second. I can’t believe they would ever present data like that since it doesn’t pass the haha test. It’s like if you ask me the temperature outside and I tell you it is 250 you should know a mistake was made somewhere.

[Demsrule86]

36. The Times poll is garbage.

[Sky Jewels]

31. Nope.

[Demsrule86]

33. I don't believe it.

[lindysalsagal]

35. If any of those points are true, blame evangelicals.

That's why many women don't hear reality: They only believe what their congregations tell them. It's an insular world.

[kcr]

37. Garbage outlier poll n/t