DAMNIT IT! How can Oz be winning this thing!!

[CTyankee]

Morning Joe was a complete and utter downer for me today. The focus group knew he was an outsider and they must have known how utterly corrupt, in addition to being a quack and a liar. Fetterman has a very viable way to deal with the effects of his stroke.

What is the matter with these people?!!

SOMEBODY tell me what is going on???

[Polybius]

1. Polls tightened a lot the past month

The election will be decided on by the debate next week.

[CTyankee]

4. Do you think any minds will be changed? It seems like people just don't care...

[Polybius]

11. It won't change our minds or their minds

But about 5-10% are undecided. They will determine the winner. That's why I think this debate will be crucial.

[CTyankee]

22. OK, I will calm down...(just a bit, tho)...

[Celerity]

39. Polybius is correct IMHO. I have watched this race more than any other, and it is now

a coin toss due to 3 things that eroded Fetterman’s lead.

All 3 are being blasted across PA and the net via non stop RW dark money attack adverts.

1. Inflation and high food/petrol prices.

2. Crime (typical 'Dems love crims' bullshit, plus falsely amplifying Philly as representative of the rest of the state.)

3.His stroke/health issues, Oz is playing massive FUD games.

[Demsrule86]

51. The sample size is 550...it is a bullshit polls just like the Times was...these sample sizes are way

to small...I believe we will win the midterm.

[CTyankee]

78. A very good and important fact! The smaller the poll, the greater the margin of error. and yet, I

worry. It is probably better for our mental health not to read the smaller polls at all. We should also look at the pool of people being polled.

[Demsrule86]

23. Debates are meaningless...and Fetterman is still ahead and has been in every polls...despite the

breathless Oz is getting closer BS I see from the media. Fetterman will no doubt beat Oz in the debate but I still consider them meaningless.

[Polybius]

26. This debate is different though, because all eyes will be on him

If he shows the state that there's nothing to worry about, he'll win. But we live in a cruel world, so he must do well and not show any bad signs.

[Demsrule86]

30. Fetterman has been ahead in every polls...you just don't seem to care much for him or for our

changes in November. I looked at the NYT poll;it was garbage and they spent an inordinate time trying to explain why it wasn't garbage. As for the debates, Fetterman will do just fine. In fact, Oz has distanced himself from the attack on Fetterman about his health as apparently, their internal polling showed it was backfiring.

[Polybius]

34. Not yesterday's poll

It's tied. I do like him, but I am a realist. The media coverage after his interview last week was bad. They influence voters.

https://www.fox29.com/election/insideradvantage-fox-29-poll-fetterman-oz-neck-and-neck-as-shapiros-lead-narrows

[LakeArenal]

43. Realist or opinionist?

Your reality to me is an opinion.

My reality is also an opinion.

[Demsrule86]

53. The poll at the link had a sample size of 550 voters...shitty poll and with a margin of error of 4.4

It is a big fat nothing...Shapiro had one of his lowest leads in the entire election cycle too.

[Polybius]

59. You just said no polls

I showed you one, and you say something like "Small sample size." You said no polls show them tied. No means no.

[Genki Hikari]

66. Oh for crying out loud

Any poll of only 550 is no poll, because it's totally useless. The sample size IS too small, and that makes it barely more accurate than an online poll. If some online poll said the same thing, would you whine about that, too?

I didn't know we had to spell out no RELIABLE poll, but clearly we must for the Chicken Little brigade who are determined to think the worst about Democrats any chance they get.

[Polybius]

69. Ok

Last edited Sat Oct 22, 2022, 01:07 AM - Edit history (1)

I'll give you that one, it's low.

[Demsrule86]

49. Are you serious? That what you base you opinion on...550 likely voters? Shapiro is supposedly

losing votes in this bogus poll. So independents broke for OZ by 20 points. and Black voters too...wow, lots of info coming from 550 likely voters...perhaps you should look at the poll and consider the likelihood of any of their assertions being true.

The race is now a dead heat, according to the poll of 550 likely voters conducted three weeks before Election Day on Nov. 8. The poll has a margin of error of 4.2%

[Sympthsical]

55. The Right has been going to absolute town on him

His appearance with President Biden has invited a lot of . . . commentary.

People who only want good vibes don't understand what's happening in the other room, because they refuse to open the door to it. When the house burns down because of the bonfire the other guests have been making in the parlor, it's always nothing but surprise.

But the Right is like a rottweiler who's got its jaws around a rabbit's neck with this stuff. I feel like easily 30% of my jaunt through Right media yesterday evening and this morning was hyper-focused on that joint appearance, and they were already going hard all week after that one reporter got raked over the coals on Twitter for her interview.

Nixon was before my time, but in my political history stories I often read that story about his election where someone said, "But I don't know anyone who voted for him." And I always wondered how someone could be that insular.

I don't really wonder about that anymore.

[Genki Hikari]

67. You seriously believe a poll from a pollster

That does NOT belong to any of the reputable polling organizations which have ethical standards?

Really?

You know how I know they don't belong to any of the polling groups like REAL pollsters do?

Because I looked at their methodology and they provide ZERO information about how they conducted the poll. That means there's no way to tell who they talked to or how. Not even if they talked only to those who are r, which wouldn't surprise me, given how unprofessional they are in every other way.

NEVER trust a poll from the kind of scumbags who don't reveal their methodology. They are almost always hired by bad actors who have a partisan agenda.

[Demsrule86]

57. Don't get your hopes up...Fetterman is going to win the debate and the election...

[Deminpenn]

76. Fetterman is currently the LtGov of PennsylvaniaHe

Should Gov Wolf be unable to perform his duties, Fetterman would step in as governor.

There have been exactly 0, zero, none, nada, no calls from any politician in the R-controlled state legislature (or any Rs for that matter) for Fetterman to step down due to his stroke. You'd think they'd all be calling for that because if Fetterman were to step aside, the Senate Pro Tem, Corman, I think would fill the Lt Gov role.

That shows you what nonsense the attacks about Fetterman's health are.

[spanone]

2. tons of money

[Alexander Of Assyria]

20. Yes. Don't personally know how much is being spent on propaganda but the media is so grateful

and it works, sadly, even in America.

Hate speech is profitable, so maybe why no laws in America on that?

[Demsrule86]

50. Guys, this is a 550 person sample of 'likely voters' which they do not define. It is a bunch of BS.

[onecaliberal]

3. Don't buy it. Seriously morning blow, turn it off.

[CTyankee]

9. I hope you are right...

[onecaliberal]

16. These polls are meant to bring you down.

How about reporting the explosion of new women registrations? They don’t do that because it’s counterproductive to their propaganda.

[Elessar Zappa]

5. I don't see Fetterman losing to Oz.

I just don’t.

[SheltieLover]

6. I don't buy it.

[ananda]

28. Same. Fetterman will win.

nt

[walkingman]

7. Racist white supremacists that could care less about anyone or anything. Oprah should have

her head examined for bringing Dr. Oz and Dr. Phil to the American public. Obviously we are not smart enough to tell con man when we see one.

[blm]

8. Do Ukrainians and Poles in Pennsylvania understand GOP sides with Putin

and will enable Putin to crush Ukraine and his next expected target, Poland?

Is that what Pennsylvania wants?

[CTyankee]

12. YES, that's MY question!

[blm]

15. Point being that Penn Dems need to shake out the

Ukrainian and Polish voters who are many in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

[Ray Bruns]

10. Same BS scare tactics Repugs use every election.

I see commercials all the time about Fetterman’s going to release murderers all the time

[pwb]

13. Women need to act up again. Young women on campus

usually have set the example. Freedoms have been taken away for fucks sake. Our wealth class owned media would not cover it if they did. Women will be counted real soon again. Roevember !!

[Poiuyt]

14. People in PA might be worried about Fetterman's health

That's the only thing I could see that could swing the voters to Oz.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

17. Did they have any polls, or just a focus group?

Focus groups are so small you can't really deduce anything from them.

[CTyankee]

21. Sorry, I didn't catch what info on polls they had. Elise Jordan did the report and I like her a lot.

She's a good, reliable reporter (Yale educated, ahem). Still scratching my head about this...and mad as hell...

[BlueCheeseAgain]

24. I don't know how things will go.

But I doubt you'll ever see a pundit say an election is in the bag for one side or the other. Not only does that open them up to embarrassment if they're wrong, but excitement is good for ratings. Just like you'll never see a sportscaster say, "Well, no point in watching this. The Rams are going to roll right over the Cowboys."

[W_HAMILTON]

27. Then calm the hell down.

And stop trying to scare others when you don't even know the full story.

Here is a list of all the Fetterman/Oz polls and not one of them has ever had Oz in the lead: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

I would suggest you delete your breathless and self-admittedly uninformed scaremongering OP.

[CTyankee]

29. what a hurtful and mean thing to say...as a devoted Dem I had a real scare this a.m. and you seem to

think that I am mindlessly scaremongering. And I came to DU to get some more information and obviously upset.

You should be ashamed of yourself for not taking me seriously. The whole point of me coming here was to get some perspective and reassurance from helpful Democrats. Instead, I get a lecture.

I am disappointed, and deeply so, that I get this kind of reaction from a fellow DUer.

However, I will thank you for the links.

Word to the wise: next time, think twice before posting the mean stuff. Just the links would have been enough.

[W_HAMILTON]

36. Well I've provided you with the information...

...you didn't bother to look up yourself and instead chose to add to the incessant negativity around here because you misheard a report.

As for feeling ashamed, I was going to say that you should feel the same for posting what you did, but I didn't want it to come off as a personal attack, so I didn't. But YOU tell ME that I should feel ashamed? I don't, and I won't. Not one bit.

Now, rather than continuing this, go and delete your, yes, scaremongering OP or update it with the accurate information you've since been provided and hope that it didn't depress anyone's vote.

[CTyankee]

54. well, if you think that your unfortunate reaction is going to make me delete this, think again.

I've been in this fight a good many of my 83 years on earth. I was expressing my utter horror of seeing and hearing these people who know better or should know better saying that "yeah, I think I'll vote for him."

I did not mis-hear what was on "Morning Joe" today. I was discussing that report. You may not have heard it. Yes, it was one report but MJ chose to air it. I was putting that discussion up here because this kind of thing is what we Dems must always KNOW about, so we can TALK about it, if it comes up later in a conversation with other people we may be having.

No one here should be putting their fingers in their ears to keep out things we don't want to hear. I would rather hear about it so I know what fights we still have. I don't hear much because 1) I am old and 2) I am in a deep blue state and city.

I was reporting on what I believed was deplorable for a MSM program. I wanted and hoped for strong rebuttals and also to be informative to those who might have missed the program today. That's what we do here. If we see something, we say something.

A word to the wise....

[W_HAMILTON]

64. Then as I said...

...here's hoping you didn't depress anyone's vote with your scaremongering and false information. And if you claim it was none of those things, kindly provide the link to the poll that shows Oz "winning this thing."

[CTyankee]

82. Oh, calm down. It's a new good day. I woke up with the man I love beside me and the sun was

up. This morning he is buying me a fresh toasted whole wheat bagel with veggie cream cheese after he gets the Sunday papers. I am planning my art trip to Barcelona and Paris (with my daughter and granddaughter) in late March/early April. I have finished my second art book.

This is a good day. I hope yours is going well, too.

[irisblue]

56. Wow, that is a pretty rude reply

[W_HAMILTON]

63. I think what's rude was scaremongering...

...based on incomplete/outright wrong information.

You wonder why Russian and Republican troll farms pay good money to depress Democratic votes when some of those among us do it for free...

[Spazito]

33. Her history is as a Republican strategist...

so I take what she has to say with a dose of salt. She is an anti-trumper but may well still support the repubs overall, imo.

[CTyankee]

68. OTOH, she is a former repub. so she knows them as we may not (I certainly don't).

she is Ivy educated and ought to have known better but has now seen the light. It may be opportunistic but I don't care as long as she is honest about it. So unless and until I get information otherwise I'll consider what she has to say.

So, it's a fair point that you raise.

[Spazito]

70. Fair enough...

I remember her from the George W days and that definitely colors my take. I'm not sure she has changed that much and find she tailors her reporting to fit with which ever show she is on, not so much the facts but the slant she puts on them. As you can tell she is not my favorite person but I do appreciate she is a never-trumper, that's growth.

[CTyankee]

83. keep in mind that her past remarks may have returned to haunt her and she can't pretend she didn't

say them. We have them on videotape.

Sometimes our best friends are those who have belatedly seen the light!

[viva la]

18. Shapiro still has a good lead, doesn't he?

He might have some coattails.

[FBaggins]

46. Yes.

Roughly ten points

[Blue Owl]

19. And the puppy killer -- that alone should be the end of Dr. Meh

[nattyice]

25. It's just noise. Don't worry.

[JCMach1]

31. Apart from media manipulation, it shouldn't surprise us if PA comes in around

The 2020 numbers, or at least one standard deviation of.

I expect Fetterman will win, just not by 10 and maybe under 5%.

My gut says 6%

[Cosmocat]

60. Fetterman has gone 100% from day one

His stroke is part of it, Oz has a shit ton of $ and is flooding tv, radio and the internet w negative messaging.

[maxrandb]

35. The folks you saw was a focus group of Retrumplican voters only

They have lost their souls.

One "nice" lady was asked if Oz not being a Pennsylvanian bothered her, she responded; " well, I don't consider Philadelphia as being Pennsylvania either".

That's who these fucking people are. It's not funny. It's not cute. They would murder you and your family while you slept.

These are the people that used to take their kids to a lynching for entertainment.

Elections are now "life, or death".

[CTyankee]

42. I hate to think that about people but they are being interviewed and we can see and hear

them. SMH...

[Emile]

37. He's not!

[Norbert]

38. Maybe the piss drinkers vote is more than we realized.

[Sky Jewels]

40. Democrats are voting like gangbusters in Pennsylvania. Oz won't win.

The enthusiasm, and the Roe Rage, is with the Dems. And The Orange One isn't on the ballot, so the Rs aren't as fired up to vote.

These fucking pundits are using turnout models that will prove to be way off, IMHO.

[Fiendish Thingy]

41. It's a tight race, but 538 give Fetterman a 61% chance of winning. Nt

[FBaggins]

45. PredictIt had it close to 60% a few days ago

But has fallen to 58/46 against.

Both are down from ~75% two months ago.

Unless something blows in the news to change the script, the debate looms large.

[FakeNoose]

44. Get used to saying it ... "Senator Fetterman"

He's going to win this.

[Pete Ross Junior]

47. Whatever else is going on, part of it has to be celebrity name recognition. n/t

[CTyankee]

48. Maybe so. I don't think of him as a celebrity but that might be it.

[Pete Ross Junior]

75. If you heard of him before on the TV, he's a celebrity. n/t

[Liberal In Texas]

52. Polls are down some, the repubs are getting traction with the "crime" fearmongering.

If it will help, feast your eyes on this site:
https://www.bluewavehq.com/
(click on Penn for that state.)

[Initech]

58. WTF is wrong with people???

[A HERETIC I AM]

61. Dammit...

Or Damn it.

“Damnit it” is a wee redundant!

[CTyankee]

73. NOW you tell me!

[Azathoth]

62. 1) PA is redder than Dems will admit and 2) Fetterman's stroke is a legit issue

It's really that simple. PA is the home state of Rick Santorum. It's redder than we want to admit.

And Fetterman's stroke is now a clear disadvantage for him. The campaign spent weeks pretending he was recovering fine, now it's clear he has genuine, long-term cognitive symptoms. Whether those symptoms are significant enough to warrant concern is a question frankly only a neurologist can answer, but the average voter is going to form an opinion anyway, and moving forward she probably will be skeptical of any assurances coming from Fetterman's camp.

Oz is a snake from New Jersey, but he's also smart and undeniably capable (in theory) of doing the job. And he's running on the back of voter anger against inflation and the looming recession.

[CTyankee]

71. I think Fetterman has an assisted device which helps stroke victims communicate.

I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. there is such a thing as "able-ism" where the "able" majority uses only their own experience as being OK. It's why FDR was never shown in his wheelchair, which was OK in the day of limited media exposure.

I agree that Oz is a snake and "capable" (of god knows what). And when will voters understand that electing a snake will not help get us out of a recession and will only worsen inflation's effect on the vast majority of us? I really want to know the answer to that question.

[Treefrog]

65. You don't have to believe everything you hear on tv, you know?

In fact, best not to do so.

[CTyankee]

72. And I do not. Give me a little credit here..

[Treefrog]

74. Only responding to what you wrote in at least

two rather panicky threads, both having to do with the media.

Maybe time to turn off the tv for awhile?

[Deminpenn]

77. Here are the facts. This report came from a focus

group of 10 people (all women from what I saw) from western PA or Pgh area rounded up by Elise Jordan. They identified as "swing voters". I think she also did a seperate group from SE Pa.

This was not a poll. No polls, not even the R-biased Trafalger, have shown Oz ahead.

MSNBC is promoting the results of this focus group because Elise Jordan is a regular contributer for them. I'd bet this focus group was a project MSNBC was interested in her doing. MSNBC would like a lot of people to tune in to their election night coverage. No one tunes in to watch blowouts.

There are other relatively close Senate races, but PA is close in proximity to NY and DC so much easier to hype for the pundits.

[CTyankee]

79. MSNBC promoting their own focus group! Imagine that!

who could imagine them doing such a thing!

I think I'll faint from shock...

[Deminpenn]

80. LOL

[GoneOffShore]

81. I'm shocked! Shocked I tell you!