Question about the Polls

[samsingh]

does anyone know if the polls reflect new registrations and would they capture the pink army being assembled?

[Abnredleg]

1. Pollsters ask for registration status

The issue is how they construct their “likely voter” model since prior voting is usually part of the filtering.

[samsingh]

2. so if the filter rejects new voters they are not counted

even though they are registered.

thanks for responding.

[Abnredleg]

4. It's not that simple

New voters are constantly coming into the electorate so pollsters usually ask follow up questions to determine likelihood of voting. I suspect most are being counted.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

6. For some pollsters, mainly the big ones, from what I have been told

They combine voter roll information they get from the states(which will have newly registered voters on them) with data they get from the big data collection companies and use that to help they likely voter model. People vastly underestimate how much information is being collected on your social media, online browsing, and phone geo location data. If they can target you with ads for stuff to buy, then they can target you for your political leanings as well and use all of it to gauge how interested and active you will be in an upcoming election.

[pwb]

3. You are on to it Sam

Pukes are fucked and we all know it. Our media needs regulation and definition of what is news and truth from what is lies and bullshit. This constant cable close election race crap invites Election denial.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. I think the biggest limiting factor in polling is cell vs. landline

Who has both or only a cell, who answers the phone, who is working so they can't answer, who tells the truth to pollsters.

Sort that out and accuracy improves by 4% or better I would think.

[ananda]

7. I never get polling calls.

Maybe bc I never answer unknown numbers.