Oz-Shapiro. Warnock-Kemp. Split-ticket voters loom large in midterms.

[brooklynite]

Washington Post

In Pennsylvania, Jon Tucker has held a fundraiser and made phone calls for Republican Senate nominee Mehmet Oz. But the right-leaning swing voter just cast his ballot for the Democratic nominee for governor, Josh Shapiro, alarmed at the GOP nominee’s extremist ties.


In Georgia, D.C. Aiken, a two-time Donald Trump voter who supports the reelection bid of Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, has struggled to set aside allegations of violence and threats and other scandals dogging the GOP’s Senate nominee, Herschel Walker. Aiken, a 60-year-old banker who lives in the Atlanta suburbs, would love to help Republicans regain control of Congress — yet he’s backing Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D), who strikes him as “a person of credit.”


“I think you have to vote,” he said, “and I have to say, I can’t vote right now for Mr. Walker.”


Ticket-splitters, on the decline for years as the country has grown ever more polarized, could be pivotal this year in several key battlegrounds, according to public polls, which show conspicuous gaps in performance between gubernatorial and Senate candidates of the same party.

[Polybius]

1. That's sadly true I think for PA and GA

I see no way for Shapiro or Kemp to lose. I think Warnock and Oz win but Fetterman has a legit chance to bounce back.

[redstateblues]

2. Fetterman will win

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. Bounce back? He has led evey poll for months.

[LenaBaby61]

4. He was ahead .....

I asked a friend how Fetterman lost his lead which was decent--a few to 6-7 points ahead a week ago--and he told me that a few outlier polls were thrown into the mix and now Oz is either ahead by a few or tied. I didn't even go look, because I don't trust a lot of this polling, and I do feel strongly that the woman's and youth vote is being way under counted. Look at what happened when Roe was put on the ballot in blood-red Kansas. Most in the media had egg all over their faces over that outcome. People just need to get out and vote and make sure a few others are registered to vote and taken them to vote. Young, old, get out and vote to save our country.

I live here in LA County, and the newspapers were playing up the fact that with a few reich-winged, outlier polls were thrown into the Newsom vs Uncle Larry polling and it was alleged that Elder actually had a chance to beat Newsom Long story short, after all the counting was done, and Newsom beat Uncle Larry even worse than first thought. Even up in the 'neck--short for redneck--bastions of California up North many people didn't even bother voting at all, and up North near San Fan, it was over that night when the polls closed for Uncle Larry, and here in LA Country, over and out. Then a few publications had the nerve to say things above the mast like:

"Gavin Newsom survives recall attempt."

"Gavin Newsom "escapes" recall attempt."

[JustAnotherGen]

5. We'll see

Just looked at the October voting registration by district and affiliation in my state/district.

I don't think the polls are touching newly registered unaffiliated voters. That's where the truth is.

[Deminpenn]

6. Shapiro has drawn R support in both his statewide campaigns

for AG. In both 2016 and 2020, Shapiro got more votes than anyone else on the ballot including Trump.

I still don't see much, if any, enthusiasm for Oz. Unlike Trump voters, no one is going to make an unexpected, special trip to the polls just to vote for Oz.

Fetterman isn't doing rallies in large venues, but the smaller ones his campaign is choosing (between 500-2000) are full and attendees are enthusiastic. Fetterman was just in the City of Butler in deep red Butler County and drew a full house. Jmho, but he is going to pull out the "discouraged Dems", Dems in red areas who feel sometimes it's pointless to vote because their vote isn't going to change the result.

PA also has a closed primary system. In Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, for example, the Dem primary is pretty much the general election because of there are far more Ds than Rs. Voters almost have to be registered Dems if they want to have say in who is going to be elected. It's the same in the heavily R areas.