NV-GOV, NV-SEN: Early voting update 10/22/22
And so it begins.
I will post results of early voting as I can corral the data — may be tonight (I have plans and a life outside this blog, but don't tell too many people), tomorrow AM at the latest.
As I said, I expect about 1.2 million voters, give or take, to turn out. About 850,000, or perhaps slightly less, should be from Clark. If Clark turnout is down, that is an early warning sign for the Dems.
Last cycle, 27,000 turned out on the first day of voting in Clark, and the Dems only won by 7 points and had a 2,000-voter lead over the GOP. They had a 12 percent registration lead in Clark at the time, or 155,000 voters. Now it is down to 9.6 percent, or 126,000 voters. Dangerous to extrapolate from a first day, but that's the context.
The mail ballots poured in during the first election in which all voters got a ballot, and a 2,000-voter lead in 2020 soon became... 35,000 for the Dems after the first mail posted. We should know those numbers Monday.
And keep an eye on Washoe (Reno), the other urban county: In 2020, early voting turnout was about 6,000., and Dems won by 500 votes. But Dems swamped Repubs in mail there, too, and took a 2-to-1 lead.
Remember that about 90 percent of the vote was in before Election Day in 2020, and we don't know if more Repubs will withhold their votes until Nov. 8 this cycle. I will try to discern trends along the way.
If Dems don't do well today, it may be a sign of a red wave to come. But no conclusion-jumping on this blog. Yet.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022
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