Data for Progress (D) GA polls (Senate and Governor) Sunday poll

[Polybius]

GA Senate: Raphael Warnock 48, Herschel Walker 47, Chase Oliver (Libertarian) 3, not sure 3

GA Governor: Brian Kemp 53, Stacey Abrams 43, Shane Hazel (Libertarian), not sure 4

Poll also list favorables and negatives of the candidates.

https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_ga_midterm_tabs.pdf

[Polybius]

1. I think Warnock wins

But it will likely go to a runoff.

[Sympthsical]

2. That vote-splitting thing again

I think it was you who posted that article the other day?

[Polybius]

3. I don't recall posting it

Perhaps I replied to someone else's post?

[Sympthsical]

4. There was an article

It was about how voters were splitting between gubernatorial candidates and senate candidates. Rather than going all R or all D across all offices, some candidates were being rejected by voters who would ordinarily vote for them.

So we see in Kemp and Walker's numbers. Walker's proving too much.

I think it was this article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/28/georgia-will-be-measure-erosion-split-ticket-voting/

[Polybius]

7. Yes, I think I replied to someone who posted that a few days ago

In PA the Senate race is close, but the Governor's race is a not at all. Shapiro is leading the MAGA by like 10.

[budkin]

5. Man it's not looking good for Stacey...

I really hope the wave pushes her over the top.

[Polybius]

6. There won't be any waves this year

No Red, no Blue. I expect us to either win one Senate seat, push (same as this year, 50-50), or lose one. It won't be like 2006 for us, nor 2010 for them.

Of course, I'm only human. I could be wrong.

[budkin]

8. I'm feeling confident there will be a Roe wave of newly registered voters

Including my 18 year old daughter voting in her first election!

[Polybius]

9. What would classify as a wave?

A pickup of 5 Senate seats? 20 House seats?