NV-GOV, NV-SEN: Early voting update 10/23/22

[RandySF]

I don’t anyone who understands this stuff from either party who thinks it means much. There are two reasons not to draw any conclusions:

1. It’s such a small sample — maybe 2 percent of what total turnout will be. And the windstorm in Clark County clearly depressed the usual first-day turnout and attempt by both parties to show strength. (It was 27,000 in 2020, 30,000 in 2018 in Clark.)

2. Mail data is sparse so far and will overwhelm the totals we have now. Expect the first substantial mail numbers to post Monday.

Remember there are no easy apples to apples comparisons here. Yes, 2018 was the last midterm, but not every voter received a mail ballot four years ago. In 2020, every voter received a mail ballot and mail balloting was 48 percent of the total and in-person early voting was 41 percent. (There is chart in an earlier post.) So 2020 may be a better comparison in voting patterns, with turnout likely to be about three-quarters or so of what it was in a presidential year. We will know more about turnout as the 14-day early voting period progresses.

If you care – and I don’t think it’s very useful – the Dems won Clark by 44 percent to 37 percent the first day of early voting last cycle, or 2,000 votes. By the time of the first mail data dump, the Clark Dem lead was...32,000. So let’s wait for mail to see what is happening this time in Clark County, where the Dems need to build a firewall. (How big a firewall? Not sure yet what would hold off losses elsewhere, but it was 47,000 in 2018 and 81,000 in 2020 after early voting ended. Both were big Dem years here.)

Democrats dominated mail balloting overall last cycle (by 20 percentage points), partly because Donald Trump and others scared the base about mail ballots. Republicans won in-person early voting (a reverse of usual trends in Nevada) by about 15 points, but the number of voters was significantly smaller (by more than 100,000).

Keep an eye on the mail trend you see above: If more Republicans vote by mail this time, that’s a warning sign for the Dems. Many may also wait until Election Day to vote in person or drop off their mail ballots. In 2020, for reference, only 37 percent of Repubs voted by mail overall; let's see what that number is after mail posts Monday.

It seems clear many voters dropped off their mail ballots Saturday (the Culinary union, for example, says it has used this method) – and these are not included in the totals above because they have yet to post. I have never jumped to conclusions after one day of voting, and this year is even trickier than most because of the explosion of non-major party voters and the inclement weather Saturday.

Of course, if turnout remains virtually tied in urban Nevada (as it is now) after mail ballots start accumulating, that will signal a large red wave. That’s because the Repubs will win in a landslide in rural Nevada (I will post rural numbers when I get them.) and Dems need to win big in Clark and hold their own in Washoe, which some observers think will not be as favorable to Dems as it has been in recent cycles (Repubs have a slight registration lead in Washoe).





https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022