218 House Seats Now Lean Republican

[applegrove]

218 House Seats Now Lean Republican

October 26, 2022 at 7:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2022/10/26/218-house-seats-now-lean-republican/

"SNIP........

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “We now rate 218 House seats — the magic number for winning a majority — as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings.”

“A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up breaking disproportionately to the Republicans.”

“We suspect the Republicans will do better than just a split in the Toss-ups, so our updated forecast is a GOP gain in the high teens or low 20s.”

.....SNIP"

[Elessar Zappa]

1. And why do they suspect Republicans will do better in the toss ups?

Do they have any actual evidence of this?

[applegrove]

3. I put up the link to the poll.

[Elessar Zappa]

6. But it doesn't say why they think Republicans

will win the majority of toss up races. It’s just speculation as far as I can tell.

[pstokely]

11. They think the repukes have homefield advantage being the opposition party

but the playing field might overall be more neutral this year

[Demsrule86]

25. This is pure BS...seriously, the poll doesn't explain why tossups are given to the GOP and if they

were not...they wouldn't have this result...so it seems they did it to get the result they wanted. I say we keep the house and win the senate as well with more senators...maybe even Iowa.

[DestinyIsles]

5. Because of history party out of power usually does better in close races

[ColinC]

8. Despite of course this being absolutely not the case in the last 4 special elections

Perhaps it is different in the general, but anybody not treating this like an enormously unique election is cray cray imho

[madville]

18. It's the case in the past midterms though

2006 Democrats won the house easily against GWB.

2010 Republicans won a huge house majority against Obama.

2014 Republicans took the Senate by gaining 9 seats and increased their majority in the House against Obama.

2018 Democrats reclaim the house against Trump.

2022 looks like Republicans regaining the House by 10-20 seats.

[ColinC]

19. Agreed.

But this is a vastly unique midterm as far as what the presidents party had the ability to do, as well as losing a fundamental basic right due to the opposition party.

Indicators suggest this will not go the way of most midterms. Current events confirm this is a unique election regardless of the results and treating it like any other midterm is insane to me.

[pstokely]

21. what indicators?

but instincts differ than indicators?

[ColinC]

22. Indicators such as the elections this year

I consider the polling discrepancies in the year the midterms take place to be indicators.

Polls being consistently wrong by 5-16 points, for example. Other indicators like record level spikes in voter registration by women, and some early turnout numbers in key states suggest this will be different.

Nothing will be sure until after the election though and everything depends on -among other things, on doors knocked (which the specials indicated also having a huge uptck in)

[Demsrule86]

26. This is not a normal years...and New York 19 was a general...these folks are in for a surprise.

No, it doesn't look like the GOP regaining the House. Other more honest polls show a different result.

[brooklynite]

12. Most of the tossups are Democratic incumbents...

…and historically they break for the challenger in an off year election.

I chose not to post this because folks accuse me of spreading “doom and gloom”, but the analysis of Sabato and his team is in line with what the team at Cook Political think.

[Elessar Zappa]

13. I'm not convinced that this is a normal election.

I guess we’ll find out in 13 days.

[ColinC]

15. Same. The special were our first indications of that.

I think Dobbs motivated a lot of people to take action and knock on doors. This is why the polls may continue to be very wrong and Democrats could win (maybe massively) on election day. Alas, it all depends probably on how many doors are knocked.

[pstokely]

16. won't Dems be doing more in person GOTV this year?

since that was scaled back in 2020 and mostly discouraged

[ColinC]

17. Yep! They have been doing a lot. My guess is that began in the specials

Which is why polls were so inaccurate.

[yankee87]

2. Remember Kansas

I can’t believe the polls because they don’t take into effect the Roe vote.

[pstokely]

9. people vote one way on amendments and another on candidates

they'd vote a for anti-choice repuke while voting for a constitutional amendment protection reproductive freeom

[Nevilledog]

24. Source?

[Demsrule86]

28. New York 19 was not an amendment...so I suggest you consider this.

[PortTack]

4. I like Larry Sabato but....he hasn't been a lot better with his predictions than others

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/08/larry_sabato_predicts_hillary_clinton_will_win_322-216.html

[Fla Dem]

7. It's going to be a nail biter for sure.

I just can't believe sane people will vote for anyone who is running as a "Stop the Steal" Trump Magot.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

10. Tell somebody

[Kid Berwyn]

14. Trump & GQP almost destroy US democracy and we are behind?

That’s the power of messaging.

[Xoan]

20. My infallible sources tell me that MAGAts are gonna take on bath on Nov. 8.

[TheBlackAdder]

23. Would conservative people who support Roe offer up that they voted Dem to an unknown polltaker?

[brooklynite]

27. Would conservative people who believe the media is "fake" respond to a pollster at all?

[JustAnotherGen]

29. It is what it is

Just GOTV. Make call, knock on a door, send a text, make sure your shut in /disabled / elderly neighbors know what is at stake - and help them vote.