General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums4 point shift to the Democrats in a week
Link to tweet
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47% (+5)
Republicans 42%
.@MorningConsult/@Politico, 2,005 RV, 10/21-23
https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/10/25151347/2210148_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_10-26-22_SH.pdf
SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)Thx for sharing!
Wounded Bear
(58,673 posts)SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)wnylib
(21,505 posts)Hope it holds true in specific individual races.
I want so much to hold onto both houses of Congress and gain in the Senate, but don't want to set myself up for disappointment. So, I am holding onto cautious optimism. We could accomplish so much by holding the House and having a solidly Democratic Senate.
SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)Wounded Bear
(58,673 posts)FSogol
(45,493 posts)pstokely
(10,529 posts)Aviation Pro
(12,172 posts).....
Sky Jewels
(7,116 posts)ProudMNDemocrat
(16,786 posts)I know the races for US House and Senate are getting tighter, and people like Andrea Mitchell and Steve Kornacki are playing Debbie Downers saying Republicans are better at messaging fear.
getagrip_already
(14,768 posts)As bad as it can be for voters to believe they can't win, it is just as bad for them to think they can't lose.
Gotta give them a reason to show up and be counted - no "extra" votes will be a waste of time this election.
ProudMNDemocrat
(16,786 posts)Already voted early. Voted Democrat all the way.
calimary
(81,350 posts)Qutzupalotl
(14,319 posts)The fact that we're seeing RV polls this late in the cycle indicates that pollsters know their models of likely voters are way off this time. I think people are coming out of the woodwork to vote against the enforced pregnancy advocates.
getagrip_already
(14,768 posts)People who say they will vote, often don't.
Just get out the vote. Don't focus on polls.
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,364 posts)CaptainTruth
(6,594 posts)That basically sums it up.
GreenWave
(6,759 posts)With apologies to Woody Guthrie's Union Maid
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)peggysue2
(10,836 posts)Strange, strange indeed.
bullimiami
(13,099 posts)All this skewing left and right I attribute to methodology and sample.
I think polling has been broken both by technological changes and deliberate distortion by some polling outfits.
What was once nearly a science is now half guesses and opinion.
Get out and vote. The only poll that counts is the count.
awesomerwb1
(4,268 posts)A few threads on here with articles from the "experts" predicting doom for the Dems, then we have threads like this with the opposite.
I don't know nothin'
Disaffected
(4,559 posts)As someone once said, poles are only good for flags, wires and dogs.
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,364 posts)qazplm135
(7,447 posts)but it's definitely educated guessing this time around.
We have a lot of different factors push pulling...inflation, perceived crime and general economic news v election and democracy issues, abortion rights, and student loan debt.
Could be a blue wave, a red wave, or a neutral election.
Only thing we can do is GOTV as much as possible.
gab13by13
(21,363 posts)I do not believe any polls; I ignore all of them.
lees1975
(3,866 posts)Why is Morning Consult, along with several other polls that survey several thousand registered voters, and comes up with these numbers, not cited on MSNBC, which uses their internal polling with a few hundred responses and is throwing panic into Democrats over this "narrowing" of the margin? Are they trying to motivate Democrats to go to the polls and vote? There was another one last night from Steve Kornacki showing Maggie Hassan just a couple of points up.
Or is this all just some kind of media game to get their ratings up?
And what's happening at DNC headquarters. I get all these emails from Democrats saying this or that Republican took out 2 million in ads against them and they need money, but then I hear Tim Ryan this morning talk about having over 300,000 small contributors and blowing Vance out of the water with ads everywhere.
brooklynite
(94,624 posts)mountain grammy
(26,630 posts)That said. Ive knocked on a few doors and people seem genuinely disturbed by republicans. Hope May live another day.
Cuthbert Allgood
(4,925 posts)It's going to be very close from what the numbers look like by districts.
Captain Zero
(6,813 posts)the old rule used to be if a candidate is under 45 going into the last week. he is not going to win.
Historic NY
(37,451 posts)vote like your life depends on it, it does.
Cha
(297,375 posts)are 5 points behind!