Dems doom highly exaggerated

[bigtree]

Last edited Thu Oct 27, 2022, 01:31 AM - Edit history (2)

YouGov America @YouGovAmerica 4h
NEW w/@TheEconomist: Democrats lead Republicans by 4 points among likely voters in this year's Congressional elections (49% vs. 45%). Last week, Republicans held a 1-point advantage over Democrats with likely voters, by 47% to 46%. https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/sp4h6s0adp/econTabReport.pdf

Political Polls @Politics_Polls 2h
5 point shift to the Democrats in a Week

The Hill @thehill 6h
Democrats widen lead to 5 points on generic congressional ballot: survey https://trib.al/NNzVkOg

Matt Rogers 🎃 @Politidope 4h
The newest @POLITICO - @MorningConsult poll has Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 5: 47% to 42%.

Men: Dems +2
Women: Dems +7
Independents: Dems +4
Millennials: Dems +5
GenXers: Dems +9
GenZers: Dems +20
Boomers: Rs +2

Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC 4h
There are now three weekly tracks showing 3-4 pt movement to the Dems in the past week:

Econ/YouGov 45-44 to 46-42 3 pt Dem gain
MC/Politico 45-44 to 47-42 4 pt Dem gain
Rasmussen 41-48 to 43-47 3 pt Dem gain

Link to tweet

[Farmer-Rick]

1. That's a pretty good poll

Over 2,000 people interviewed with a margin of error at 2 percent.

Better poll than most I've seen lately.

[Cha]

2. And, the US media$$$ delights

in it from what I've read on DU.

[JCMach1]

3. I see it falling out much like 2020, with reapportionment being the decider

Last edited Wed Oct 26, 2022, 07:47 PM - Edit history (1)

Which by most measures was also be a wash between D and R...

I see a very, very narrow victory either way... Less than 5 seats for either side.

Senate 50/50, or 51/49 D

[Elessar Zappa]

4. That's what I'm thinking.

90% chance we keep the Senate, 50/50 on the House.

[jimfields33]

7. I'm not thrilled that Republicans only need to win five seats in the house.

I wish we had a majority of 30 seats. That would guarantee our continued majority.

[PortTack]

6. Agree..it will be a narrow victory in the house. Hope it belongs to the dems

Not really worried about the senate, sure hope we at least have 51/49

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

5. Morning consult had the generic as D+7 before the election in 2020

And we still lost 14 seats. Reapportionment has changed the maps some, but I don't know if enough of the gerrymandering has been undone to cut into the gops advantage. It's going to come down to turnout.

[bigtree]

9. if turnout is the measure

Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC 1h
Via TargetEarly, % D/R who've voted at this point in:

2020 2022
US 52-37 54-36
GA 48-44 52-40
MI 41-38 53-27
PA 69-25 73-23
VA 54-32 56-29
WI 38-40 42-29

Early vote is more D in US and these states. Some good news from NV too:

Jon Ralston @RalstonReports 9h
NEWS: This is a large batch of mail ballots and Dems are crushing Repubs in Clark County almost 2 to 1. Very similar to what happened in 2020: Early voting has slight edge to GOP and then Dems obliterate the lead.

These are significant numbers after two days.

Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC 1h
Morning Consult found rising Dem vote intensity. Tracks what we are seeing in the early vote.

"Dems Hold Enthusiasm Edge: For the fifth week in a row, D voters are more likely than Rs to say they are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections, 63% to 58%. The 5-point gap is the largest Dem advantage Morning Consult has recorded in 2022"
https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

...more:

Link to tweet

Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC 4h
According to TargetEarly's latest update, at this point in 2018 the GOP had about a 170,000 vote lead across the country.

Today Democrats have a 1.8m vote lead.

The Dem party-wide embrace of early voting has emerged as a significant tactical advantage this cycle.

Link to tweet

[ananda]

8. good!

!

[GreenWave]

10. Like today's pancakes: Keep 'em coming.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

11. Too damned close. Educate the electorate!

Vote for the party that wants to give 4th graders free lunch,
not for the party that wants to force 4th graders to give birth to a rapist's child.

[uponit7771]

12. K&R, Please look at MOEs on the "doom" polls ... something strange in reporting this year in regards

... to dem GOTV

[brooklynite]

14. The generic House poll doesn't translate to wins...

Because of population distribution and gerrymandering, Dems need something close to a +8 advantage to translate to significant House gains. There simply aren't that many competitive seats, and Dems can only afford to lose four.