Eastern Caribbean -This is some serious advanced warning for next week - never seen this before

[malaise]

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form by early next week while the disturbance moves generally
westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[Deuxcents]

1. Thanks, malaise

Season is not over.. officially.. until the end of November but Mother Nature doesn’t have a calendar. Thankfully, I’m good but my friends are still dealing w/ destruction from Ian .. even today.

[paleotn]

2. Reminds me of Sandy.

Another very late season storm.

[malaise]

7. My first thought although Sandy formed south of Jamaica

Late season hurricanes rarely form in the Eastern Atlantic. They tend to form in the Northern Caribbean.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy

[HubertHeaver]

3. Thanks fot the heads up.

Need to monitor the Carribean and Gulf more closely than I have been.

[PuraVidaDreamin]

4. The Perfect Storm

I don't recall the history and trajectory of this Halloween Storm
But it was a doozy here on Cape Cod.

"Also known as the Halloween Storm, “The Perfect Storm” of literary and Hollywood fame wracked the Atlantic seaboard in late October 1991 and sunk the Andrea Gail. On 30 October 1991, this nor’easter reached peak intensity when it was 340 miles (547 km) south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, but the storm had been building since 28 October 1991 when it killed the six crew members of the Andrea Gail. Oddly, this storm was neither one of the worst in terms of wind severity or precipitation nor in overall impact to people and property. Rather, it was “an extraordinary confluence of atmospheric ingredients” and “unique in its evolution” (Ostro 2006).

In late October and November the eastern United States experiences rapid changes in weather. To the west, cold Canadian air masses regularly envelope the Midwest. To the east, the Atlantic Ocean loses its stored summer heat more slowly than the continent, and hurricanes sometimes form over the warm waters. The contrast between two very dissimilar air masses (i.e., cold to the west and warm to the east) often results in massive storms just offshore North America. These tempests, called “nor’easters” in the Atlantic states, have sunk many ocean vessels (Mcgahee 2008), and indeed, The Perfect Storm lived up to this reputation with the Andrea Gail. In addition to this storm’s legacy in popular culture, however, the storm’s evolution is noteworthy. The Perfect Storm began as an extratropical system, absorbed a tropical system (i.e., Hurricane Grace), and ended somewhat uneventfully as an unnamed hurricane. According to The Weather Channel’s senior meteorologist Stu Ostro, “a non-tropical system absorbing a tropical one is not unprecedented, nor is a tropical cyclone developing from a non-tropical system. But for both processes to occur with the same system, not to mention one of this magnitude, is what made the cyclone so amazing. To me, this was the ultimate ‘hybrid’ storm”"

(][link:https://www.nps.gov/articles/the-perfect-storm-1991.htm|

[malaise]

5. Great post

Thanks

[G_j]

9. wow

that is fascinating. Thanks

[DET]

11. I Remember

The Perfect Storm was just two months after Hurricane Bob, a category 3 hurricane that devastated the Cape. I was visiting my family in Falmouth when Bob hit, after perfect weather the day before. The damage was unbelievable. 1991 was a rough year.

[brooklynite]

6. Why is it "serious"?

NOAA reports probability of tropical storm formation. Says nothing about likely intensity.

[malaise]

8. Because they are advising us about a system that

is not even identified on their graphic yet- that is highly unusual. Could be more curious than serious.

[brooklynite]

10. Click on the Five-Day map...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

The default map is only 2 days ahead.

[malaise]

13. That is the 8.00pm update not the one I posted

Please note that it has moved from 40% to 50%.

[brooklynite]

15. Its also the five day outlook

[malaise]

16. Huh?

[brooklynite]

19. The default map shows a two-day forecast, which only shows "Disturbance One"

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov



If you go to the "5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook" you see this mysterious blob that the OP is posting about.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

[malaise]

20. Read the OP

That is all

[brooklynite]

22. I did; still no obvious reason for a "serious advanced warning"

[malaise]

23. Well to be kind, there is no earthly reason for me to take your

advice re matters hurricanes. After all, Ian wasn’t heading towards Florida.
😀

[brooklynite]

24. I'm not offering advice. I'm question an assertion of a serious condition

All NHC is saying is that a (currently) 50% chance of cyclone formation exists in the next five days.

Every tropical storm and hurricane starts that way. Some become serious; some do not.

[Lochloosa]

12. Hurricane Kate November 22 1985. I lost power in Tallahassee for 7 days

Had to drive to Tampa to my Father's for Thanksgiving.

Couldn't cook my turkey.

[malaise]

17. Hope it misses all of us

😀

[area51]

18. k&r n/t

[GoodRaisin]

25. Thanks for your OP. Sitting here in eastern NC I like to start

looking at all potential hurricanes that could come our way as soon as the disturbances are first noted. I don’t care if it’s “2 day” or “5 day”.

[malaise]

26. Those of us who are affected get it