Poll Shows Dr. Oz Snatching Lead in Pennsylvania

[applegrove]

Poll Shows Dr. Oz Snatching Lead in Pennsylvania

October 28, 2022 at 2:26 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 203 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2022/10/28/poll-shows-dr-oz-snatching-lead-in-pennsylvania/

"SNIP.......

A new Wick Insights poll in Pennsylvania shows Mehmet Oz (R) grabbing the lead from John Fettterman (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 45%.

For comparison, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Fetterman ahead by 1.5 percentage points.

.......SNIP"

[reymega life]

1. I hope fetterman wins im crossing my fingers he does

I don't want a psycho doctor who killed 300 dogs in the senate

[Meadowoak]

2. More bullshit polls trying to make the Dems stay home.

GOTV.

[flor-de-jasmim]

3. That's my take, as well.

[applegrove]

5. I posted it because I think it works the other way. People need to get serious,

because it is bad, and get out and vote.

[Meadowoak]

7. Totally agree

[W_HAMILTON]

22. It doesn't.

It depresses the Democratic vote.

Democratic voters are not motivated to vote by the same reasons that Republican voters are.

I mean, have you not seen the uncovered Republican and Russian troll attempts from past elections? Do you think they were saying, "yay, Democrats are so great and are easily gonna win so I don't even think we need to vote!" Of course not. They were sowing divisiveness, claiming both sides are the same therefore your vote doesn't even matter, etc.

[agingdem]

9. Yup!!

Ignore the polls…most people live on their cellphones and reject any call that’s not in their contacts…pollster can’t get to them to ask inane questions…

[Hiawatha Pete]

35. +1

[Polybius]

45. Only an idiot would stay home because their candidate is losing

Everyone should be like us and vote no matter what. I've voted for candidates down well over 10 points.

[SalamanderSleeps]

4. "Wick Insights who?"

These guys are day players.

[applegrove]

6. Yes but we need to be serious and vote. No not voting. There is no room for that.

[SalamanderSleeps]

8. Absolutely! GOTV!

Still, how this boiler room operation got anyone's attention astounds me.

I think I'm going to get some cards printed up, and build myself a slick WordPress website.

This whole polling business looks like a lot of fun.

[Lovie777]

10. About 2 weeks ago this polling firm had .....

Oz up 49% over Fetterman I believe 44%. Apparently Fetterman has gained

[applegrove]

11. LOL. Classic GOP.

[Samrob]

12. Pennsylvanians are smarter than that. At least i want to believe that. nt

[applegrove]

13. 538 has Fetterman holding the line.

[gab13by13]

23. I trust no polls, including 538.

Fetterman has this.

[Polybius]

46. They have Fetterman at a 57% chance of winning

Last time it was this low was July 26th.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/

[d_b]

14. 18-34: 11% ?

sure. ok.

[LiberalFighter]

15. Wick Insights?

Who were they polling? New Jersey voters?

[applegrove]

17. Good one.

[Emile]

16. GOTV

[Cattledog]

18. Wick had Trump leading in PA by 2.1% right before the 2020 election

So much for accuracy. Also this was a Text to web poll.

[applegrove]

20. Doesn't hurt to have people ponder a Dem loss for a bit. Get out and vote.

[gab13by13]

24. The problem with your strategy is it is the same strategy as the Magats.

The Magats need to keep the polls close to use it as an example for when they call out fraud in Philadelphia after Fetterman wins.

It is obvious to me what the Magats are doing with the polls. If Magats are so sure that Oz is going to win why are they planning to accuse Philadelphia of fraud?

[PortTack]

29. +1000

[Demsrule86]

32. Yes it does hurt. I have done GOTV for years...despondent voters don't vote and these sort of

of posts help no one...lots of lurkers or even Duer's or others who read this on another site...(yeah our stuff is posted on other sites) might stay home because they think it is over and we lose.

[applegrove]

43. But when leaked 'polls' put John Kerry ahead of Bush at 2PM, harried Democrats.

with children, jobs and meals to juggle, stayed home and did not vote. Why they no longer release data on how the candidates are doing during the election day and hold the info untill the evening. Since that very election. Why would all media outlets do that unless influencing elections that way was a problem?

[W_HAMILTON]

50. As I told you in another thread...

We've seen the tactics that Republican and Russian trolls have used to depress Democratic turnout in previous elections and it looks a helluva lot like what you are doing in an effort to so-call """energize Democratic voters."""

Spoiler alert: they weren't posting positive messages about Democrats and their chances to win, that's for sure. Stop going back decades for an attempted justification in what you are doing and instead look at the past couple of elections and what tactics our enemies used to depress our turnout.

[applegrove]

55. Last 18 years of elections, where there are no exit polls published on the candidates

the day of the election until 8PM, are a legacy. Then they are only publishing issue exit polls on the news. The thread of that election follows us to this day. Exit polls that have your candidate ahead early helps depress the later vote for your team.

[W_HAMILTON]

56. Then feel free not to post exit polls at that time.

And, if you claim to not want to depress Democratic turnout like those exit polls you care so much about on Election Day, I'd advise you once again to stop posting primarily negative polls about Democrats now, because you are doing just that.

[applegrove]

57. To get Democrats to be serious. To make it clear they need to vote. I will post what I want.

[W_HAMILTON]

58. Okay, well just know that you are contributing more to them not voting than voting.

[applegrove]

59. We don't agree on that. Hillary losing when the polls had her ahead

is a modern example of what I'm saying.

[W_HAMILTON]

60. Funny how you blame that on the polls...

...and not the Republican/Russian disinformation tactics specifically meant to target Democratic voters by depressing turnout through pushing constant negativity around Hillary and other Democratic candidates.

Like I said, they weren't exactly preaching, "rah, rah, Democrats!" in their messages.

[applegrove]

61. People thought Hillary's win was a done deal.... so they stayed home. They were

not enthused by her. Still they did not want to Trump to win.

[catsudon]

64. yes, i remember a few of my friends did that

i call them aholes... they thought hillary would win in a landslide.... so they didn't even bother.

the dicks even went to the 'celebration' party in Richmond that night. it was a depressing night.

[applegrove]

65. I know, right?

[LeftInTX]

54. When polls showed Hillary winning, what happened?

[spinbaby]

19. Wall-to-wall Oz ads here in PA

You can’t get away from the Oz ads and they’re all slandering Fetterman.

[gab13by13]

28. Where in Pa?

I am among the Magats in central Pa. and I see as many Fetterman ads.

[spinbaby]

38. Pittsburgh area

There’s been definite surge in Oz ads in the past week. Even on YouTube, where I went to look up a video about braising beef and was served up an Oz ad.

[GreenWave]

21. Everybody vote. Get rid of the thugs..

[ananda]

25. If Dems vote, Fetterman will win. Polls are BS.

Vote!!!!!!!!

[Demsrule86]

31. This isn't even a poll, it is an online survey. Total crap.

[calguy]

26. It's all in the hands of younger voters.

They now have the numbers to override anything we baby boomers want to do. They have the numbers and the power to take this country anywhere they want to go.
If they don't seize their own power, then they won't deserve the country they'll never get.

[a kennedy]

27. DAMN, DAMN, DAMN.

[Demsrule86]

30. Not another BS poll please...

this survey of likely voters was conducted using probability sampling techniques to collect a sample of 1,000 likely voters in PA. Responses for this survey were recruited 10/26 - 10/27 by texting links to online surveys to stratified random samples of registered voters (Text-to-Web @ 70%) and by calling stratified random samples of registered voter landlines (IVR @ 30%). The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. Results are weighted.

.

It is an online survey and not even a poll. Fetterman is going to win IMHO.

[uponit7771]

40. THANK YOU !!! "margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points" is **HORRID** in 2022!! No other nation

... of any kind of techincal report would put up with polls that are that bad less than a month away from election in 2022!!

Hell, the 1960 polls were better !!

[karynnj]

49. Also note that that margin of error includes just sampling error

It would not include any bias like incorrect population estimates for the strata, any difference between people within a strata who responded vs those who didn't. The latter is a big deal as the response rate for those sampled and sent texts is low.

The error rate is based on the sample sizes within the strata and the variance of the responses within each strata. The error goes down as the sample size increases or as the variances decrease. The sample does worse at near 50/50 where the variance is highest. This means, when you need the most precision in when it is close, you have the least.

[snowybirdie]

33. Ho hum

Just this morning, someone posted a poll here that Fetterman,was 5points ahead. Time to ignore polls

[cornball 24]

34. Pennsylvania voter here...

I don't give a flying f--- what polls say!! I am gonna vote for John Fetterman. Period!

[BannonsLiver]

36. I know one poster who gets a tingle in his leg reading this

[brooklynite]

39. I'm sure insulting fellow DUers adds value to the discussion.

Out of curiosity, how much have you contributed to Fetterman's campaign?

[W_HAMILTON]

51. You are the guy that claims DU is insignificant, right?

[brooklynite]

52. I'm the person who claims that discussions at DU have no impact in the real world.

What individual members do in the real world may be different.

You still haven’t identified the DU member who apparently needs public shaming. Don’t be shy…

[Polybius]

44. What if those posters are proven right?

Will you still say "doom and gloom" when someone posts a negative poll in 2024? Or will you no be so hard on them next time?

[BannonsLiver]

66. I'm sorry but what are you on about?

[W_HAMILTON]

53. If it's the same poster I'm thinking about, they'll probably repost...

... this article later on in the night as if it's late breaking news or something.

Look on the bright side, though: if they are all posting the same article over and over, maybe that's a good sign that's the only anti-Democratic news they can find out there without dipping into the conservative news echo chamber.

[BlueIdaho]

37. Forget the polls and ignore Twitter "drama."

The real fight for democracy is right out your front door. Help you local candidates any way you can. Same goes for races across America. We don’t need “keyboard warriors” we need people that will get involved on the local, state, and national level. Contact your local Democrats and ask them what you can do today to help win the fight.

[uponit7771]

41. +1, The "poll porn" is click bate looking at the MOEs. This one has a 3.2 MOE with LV !! That's bad

[helpisontheway]

42. I'm not surprised after that interview and the debate. However, I'm very sad. Come on, PA! Nt

[FBaggins]

47. No... it doesn't

It shows Oz leading by two, but their previous poll (an extreme outlier) showed him up by five.

So the correct title should read "Poll Shows Dr. Oz Losing Lead in Pennsylvania"

Perhaps with the subtitle "a lead nobody else saw at the time"

[TheFarseer]

48. The stoke was very unfortunate

I 100% blame the stroke if Fetterman loses. How much campaigning did it cost him plus the debate performance I’m sure steered some people away from John.

[Polybius]

63. It cost a lot of campaigning

He didn't start campaigning until something like August.

[Marius25]

62. Wick is a new poll no one has ever really heard of.

If you look at the crosstabs of polls like they're, they're insanely biased.