Georgia Senate Race Looks Headed for a Runoff

[applegrove]

Georgia Senate Race Looks Headed for a Runoff

October 31, 2022 at 12:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 123 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2022/10/31/georgia-senate-race-looks-headed-for-a-runoff/

"SNIP........

The final Atlanta Journal Constitution poll in Georgia shows Herschel Walker (R) barely ahead of Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 45%.

“If the Senate race is forced into a December runoff, which is required by Georgia law if no candidate captures a majority of the vote, it will be because of a trend of split-ticket voting as a small but significant portion of Republican-leaning voters withholds support from Walker.”

In the governor’s race, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) leads challenger Stacey Abrams (D), 51% to 44%.

......SNIP"

[Polybius]

1. I think it goes to a runoff

There's also a chance that the balance of the Senate will fall on this race, if we lose NV and pick up PA.

[Demsrule86]

7. I don't think so...not with the early voting numbers.

[Demsrule86]

9. We have a good shot of picking up Ohio you know...

THE ROLE OF INDEPENDENTS AND WOMEN
Both DeWine and Ryan are outperforming their competitors among independents and women. Among independents, DeWine has a 33-point lead over Whaley. Ryan has a smaller lead among independents (about 7 points), but he is also doing better than Vance with his base.

"In the gubernatorial race, a supermajority of men and a majority of women prefer DeWine," said Dr. Tom Sutton, political science professor and director of the BW CRI. "The gender gap is much more pronounced in the Senate race where women favor Ryan by 17 points."

https://www.bw.edu/news/2022/fall/us-senate-race-remains-close-in-final-bw-ohio-pulse-poll

[Polybius]

10. The problem with Ohio is DeWine is at the top of the ticket

He's just too damn popular, and I think he propels Vance to the victory. Of course, I do think we have a decent chance. Perhaps 33%. I've played cards with worse odds and won.

As for GA, you don't think there will be a runoff in the Senate race? I see no one getting more than 49% of the vote with the Libertarian in there. How do you feel about the GA gubernatorial race?

[Samrob]

2. I think Dems win by 3+. I do not believe the polls. I trust affected voters more. nt

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. Sounds like the same speculation that surrounded the Newsom

Recall.

[Polybius]

11. Not even close to the same

Newsom started pulling away from Larry Elder a month before the recall election.

[brush]

4. Another poll a couple of days ago had Warnock up by 5 pts.

[LakeArenal]

5. Warnock will hit 51%.

No run off.

[mountain grammy]

12. Yes please!

[crickets]

13. I think so too. It will be close, but he's going to get it. nt

[underpants]

6. What votes might Chase Oliver draw?

https://ballotpedia.org/Chase_Oliver

[FSogol]

8. Screw that, GOTV. We need a clear win.