Discussion with James Carville: things don't look great

[brooklynite]

Don't see signs of a huge youth vote.

Democrats have not been solid on messaging, especially economic. Candidates should be taking cues from Biden's statements on Medicare/Social Security.

Should have leveraged kansas results on economics (Republicans lied when they said they wouldn't ban abortion; don't trust them when they say they won't eliminate SS/MC. (Kevin McCarthy on forcing a Govt shutdown; Rick Scott on DSCC plan)

Needs to be an assessment a to what messages get through to voters.

10-15% of Democrats make 80% of ,message noise.

Doing better in red states where candidates need to compete (OK-AK). Blue State democrats get lazy and don't focus on issues outside of liberal base voters.

Nevada at risk because of DSA taking over the most successful Party in the country.

Haven't heard much from DNC. Party has to do better. 26% shift in suburban white women. We have to rebrand ourselves to be relevant to most voters. Do liberal activists chase more people away than they bring in? Don't use "woke"; it has an honorable history (to the 20s), but over-educated white people made the word into something negative.

Voice of our party is being generated by over-educated white people. huge mistake to have left-wing call for negotiations with Putin over Ukraine. Issue is a simple one for people to understand.

Abortion issue had some strength in the summer, but lost energy. Needed to leverage Republican position on other issues rather than keep as a stand-alone issue.

[PortTack]

1. Youth vote is up in NC. I think I saw something similar in GA

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTR9yMoR8/

[brooklynite]

3. A TikTok video of an isolated situation is not data.

[PortTack]

18. you can discount TikTok if you want. Here's the same clip posted on YouTube.

Same is posted on FB. I don’t do Fb but you can Google it and find it yourself…if you want.

https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/where-youth-vote-can-be-decisive-2022-elections

The 2022 YESI rankings also include states, like North Carolina (#7 - Senate) and Georgia (#1 - Senate, #5 - Governor) where Black youth may have a decisive influence on elections. In Kansas (#3 - Governor), New Hampshire (#6 - Senate) and Maine (#8 - Governor), engaging rural youth will be especially critical—and an ongoing challenge, as we have chronicled that many rural youth report living in civic deserts.

The tufts article has some good charts about youth voter registration if you care to look at those.

[brooklynite]

38. You miss the point...

This is a video of ONE event on ONE date at ONE campus in ONE State.

Meanwhile:

Fewer Young People Are Voting Early, a Danger Sign for Democrats

Add this to the list of Democratic worries ahead of the midterms: Younger voters — a cornerstone of the party’s electoral coalition — make up a smaller share of early and absentee voters so far than they did in 2020.

More than 15 million voters have already cast their midterm ballots, according to the United States Elections Project. But young voters have contributed to a smaller fraction of that turnout compared to this time two years ago, according to interviews and a POLITICO analysis of voter data.

The party has had high hopes that younger voters motivated by the Supreme Court’s scuttling of abortion rights and President Joe Biden’s cancellation of some student debt would turn out in force — and help them to defy losses that the party in power typically suffers in midterm elections. They could still show up to the polls on Election Day. But their disappearance from the ranks of early voters so far puts Democrats at a disadvantage, because the party still has to chase their votes instead of banking them ahead of Nov. 8.

In North Carolina, which has a close U.S. Senate race and a set of state legislative races that could determine whether abortion remains legal in the state, the median age of voters who cast ballots through Oct. 26 was 66, according to state data. Voters aged 30 and younger account for just 5.4 percent of ballots cast so far, compared to 16.5 percent of those who voted early or absentee in 2020. Republicans’ share of the early vote is also slightly higher now than it was at the same time two years ago.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/28/young-voters-dem-early-00063929

The Tufts report says young voter turnout is greater that 2016, but not 2018 or 2020.

Let me also point out: I'm reporting what Carville said.

[PortTack]

70. In my original post I said NC youth votes was up..so no. I was very clear in what I was saying

But..
A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School indicates that 40% of 18-to-29-year-olds state that they will “definitely" vote in the November 8 midterm elections, on track to match or potentially exceed the record-breaking 2018 youth turnout in a midterm election. Young voters prefer Democratic control of Congress 57% to 31% (up five points for Democrats since spring), but 12% remain undecided.

https://iop.harvard.edu/fall-2022-harvard-youth-poll

I guess we’ll see.

On edit: Jamie Harrison has been doing a 50 state bus tour to get out the vote. What more would you have the DNC do?

[SoCalDavidS]

2. Carville Is Often Right

I’m not looking forward to next Tuesday. Sounds like we’ll lose the House, and if we’re lucky, stay at 50 in the Senate. Concerned about some of the Governor races too.

[jimfields33]

23. It's so strange hearing from him again. Last week he said we were going to

Have a huge blue wave. What the heck happened in seven days? This is ridiculous if you ask me.

[Polybius]

65. Michael Moore is still saying that

Didn't know Carville would say such a ridiculous statement.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

4. My 18 year old just voted.

A straight Democratic ticket and a vote to enshrine the right to reproductive freedom into California's constitution.

Proud of my son.

[Chautauquas]

5. Odd that the abortion issue isn't more of a focus for voters

Should be one of the most talked about issues this cycle. How did it lose energy so quickly?

[SlimJimmy]

9. I don't know either.

But I've tried to cry from the rooftops for the past month or so that the polls show abortion in the 5-8% range, compared to the economy (inflation, gas prices, food) in the 25-28% range. We should have taken a cue from Carville. "It's the economy, stupid."

[Claustrum]

10. The rising interest rate, the bad inflation numbers, the stock market.

All of that basically dominated the news cycle in the last month or so pushing the abortion issue out of the news.

[Amishman]

11. because past the initial outrage, it doesn't directly affect most voters

People are small minded, short sighted, and selfish.

Unless you are a younger woman, it is all too easy to turn inward and focus on other things out of self interest.

This is why jobs and wages is the winning approach. Huge, broad appeal.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. I have come to same conclusion. It doesn't effect enough avg people

But people DO get groceries and gas and pay bills all the time. Basic needs... People gotta blame someone.

[Ex Lurker]

51. Middle class suburban white women thought process:

"If necessary, I'll be able to get an abortion. It may take a little travel, but I can get it. Meanwhile, just look at my 401K!"

[Shrek]

26. Anger at SCOTUS doesn't necessarily show up in the voting booth

Not when there are other issues to consider and actual candidates contesting them.

[Hekate]

40. Part of it is how you frame the questions if you are polling. By splitting "democracy" & "abortion"

…. you end up splitting the way the respondent thinks about their answers. By splitting “health care” and “abortion” you do the same.

When people who do the polls think abortion is a “women’s issue” they frame their questions that way. And lo and behold, the answers reflect that.

What do I think about abortion? I now understand it as part of the continuum of women’s health care. Not every woman will need one, but it needs to be there. The horror stories are mounting daily of what happens when there’s no exceptions.

So that checks the box of “health care.”

I think outlawing abortion takes away my agency over my own body, and that of 51% of the population. Allowing state legislatures to put bounties on women, Uber drivers, doctors, clinics, nurses — is that or is that not a civil liberties issue?

So that checks the box of “democracy.”

Can my husband and I afford another child? It is dawning on women that the same people who want to outlaw abortion also want to outlaw contraception.

So that checks the box of “economy.”

I think the pollsters are wrong. I think the people who dismiss women are wrong. I think the pundits on tv are wrong. — I think the way they frame the issues are wrong.

[Polybius]

66. A huge amount of people thought that if Roe was struck down, abortion would be illegal everywhere

Once they found out that this was not the case, they didn't care as much.

[dchill]

6. Where would one go...

...to "see signs of a huge youth vote."

Color me curious.

[brooklynite]

7. State Board of elections statistics on early voting demographics

[Laura PourMeADrink]

29. Lines on campuses? Although did read that R's closed

down popular on campus polling places in TX

[Jade Fox]

8. I remember Carville saying 2020 was going to be a landslide for Biden....

I haven't put much stock in him since.

[waddirum]

21. It was a landslide for Biden in 2020

Joe won by 7 million votes and by 64 electoral college votes. That is a landslide!

[Jedi Guy]

28. That's not really a landslide, though.

A landslide is when one candidate wins by an overwhelming margin. Biden won a commanding victory in both the electoral college and the popular vote, but he didn't win overwhelmingly. The last real landslide at the presidential level was 1988, when Bush Sr. flattened Dukakis.

[Polybius]

68. I'd argue that 64 EV's isn't even commanding

It's really three or four states. Obama won with commanding EV's. Clinton won significantly. I doubt we'll ever see 400 EV's again.

[Celerity]

34. shift 21,461 votes (spread out between WI, GA, AZ) from Biden to Trump and Trump would have won

that is not a landslide

[Polybius]

67. That's not even close to a landslide

Trump won by 64 EV's in 2016. Even Obama and Clinton didn't win true landslides. A real landslide is 400 EV's or more. Last one was in 1988.

[yardwork]

36. Um, Carville was right about that.

[BannonsLiver]

48. Careful. You'll get a good scolding from the OP.

He doesn’t like counter narratives. Especially when it goes against his elite, and very exclusive confab with James Carville. It’s just big stuff us plebs wouldn’t understand.

[brooklynite]

57. I'm sorry: was I supposed to say something?

I reported what I was told. You can accept or reject it.

[TwilightZone]

62. Stalking other DU members...

isn't a good look.

[pstokely]

55. Did he factor in scaled back in person GOTV?

?

[GusBob]

12. That word "woke"

Does it appeal beyond the base?

My GOP ‘friends’ use it as a pejorative allll the time

It’s a turn off

[BlueCheeseAgain]

16. The only people I hear use it these days mean it as an insult.

It's been that way for a while, in my experience.

[GusBob]

24. Yes

I mis typed
Pejorative

[BlueCheeseAgain]

30. I understood and was just agreeing with you.

Sorry if that was unclear on my part.

[GusBob]

33. Yes again

I am with you but used the wrong word original

[Elessar Zappa]

13. It's most important that we keep the Senate, imo.

Losing the House will suck because we won’t be able to pass anything and we’d be drowning in meaningless investigations but losing the Senate would prevent us from confirming judges, which to me is more important.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

14. The next time the youth vote materializes will be the first.

Young people only seem to vote after they turn old.

According to this comprehensive early voting site, in the states with age data, 18-40 year olds make up only 13.2% of the votes cast so far, compared with 40% for ages 41-65, and 46.8% for 65+. Now, younger people tend to vote later than older people, but there isn't any sign of an expanded youth vote so far.

If younger voters don't show up this time, even with abortion on the ballot and a big student loan forgiveness, I'm not sure they ever will.

[Celerity]

37. No. We turned out in record numbers in 2018 and 2020, significantly more than other gens at our age

and unlike like Boomers and up, who voted majority Trump and the Rethugs, we overwhelmingly voted Blue and for Biden.

No increased youth vote, no Biden win in 2020, and the 2018 Blue wave would have been smaller in size.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

39. You have a point.

You're right that youth turnout was higher than in previous elections and it was generally for Democrats. (On the other hand, turnout was higher among every age group in 2020, from 76% for the 65-74 age group to 51% for the 18-24 age group.)

I just wish young people voted as much as old people. I've voted in every election I could after turning 18, but so many of my very intelligent classmates didn't. Some didn't bother to even register after moving for their first post-college jobs.

I'm glad this generation is more in tune. If only people in their 20s voted as much as people in their 70s...

[yardwork]

43. +1

[ColinC]

15. Youth vote is down among republican youth from 2018

But close to even among democratic youth in 2018. Polling has also consistently polled 18-29 year olds at between 40-50% highly likely to vote.

They just may do this closer to Election Day or on Election Day due to complications like relocating to college.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

17. In states providing data, of those who have received a mail ballot...

37% of 18-25 year olds have returned theirs, as have 44% of those from 26-40. By comparison, 75% of seniors have already returned their ballots.

So about 40-50% sounds about right. But the problem is that older people are voting in much greater numbers.

[ColinC]

22. Older people always vote in much greater numbers

And earlier. Younger voters usually wait till Election Day or close to it. It’s also worth noting that in most states their numbers aren’t too much lower than 2018. Youth turnout is also killing it in Michigan and. California compared to 2018.

But really it all depends on our GOTV efforts to get them to vote.

[ColinC]

27. Michigan younger voter stats looks interesting

At this point in 2018 18-29 year olds were 2.9% of the vote. In 2022 so far they are 5.2%.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22age%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=MI&view_type=state

[PortTack]

19. ☝️☝️☝️☝️

[ellie]

20. So all of these

women are just gonna roll over and let the repukes take their rights away forever?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

31. Evidently :(

[ColinC]

32. KNOCK ON EVERY DOOR YOU CAN

And get every Democratic person you know to vote as well!

[yardwork]

35. I agree with everything Carville says. I wish the Party would listen.

[BlackSkimmer]

41. I'm very afraid he's right.

People are voting the economy.

[yardwork]

44. Which is a actually a strength for Democrats, but we don't tell people.

People are misinformed when they think Republicans are stronger on the economy.

[BlackSkimmer]

46. Well, I agree with you, but at this point in time...

that message is simply not getting out there.

[yardwork]

49. Not at all.

[Grasswire2]

42. How many years now have some of us been hollering about messaging??

And we usually get shut down here on DU for talking about it.

THAT and... LOOK FORWARD NOT BACK are the two biggest reasons if we lose the republic.

[BlackSkimmer]

47. Yes.

This.

[dwayneb]

53. Why would you get shut down?

For talking about messaging?

[underpants]

45. Ugh

Thanks for the insight.

[DFW]

50. The DSA takeover in Nevada was so detrimental

It sounded like a clever Republican-instigated move to me. Or, worse, one they instigated with the ones being manipulated having no clue that they were being made into tools for the far right. Unbelievable. "We're coming to kill you." "Really? Can we help you with some bullets, or do you have enough?"

[betsuni]

52. +1

[yardwork]

54. DSA is full of infiltrators, imo.

[dalton99a]

63. They deserve to be treated with suspicion

like the Greens

[Deminpenn]

56. I like Carville, but he sounds

like the cranky, old conservative Southern Democrat that he is. It's not 1992 anymore. These voters Carville wants to attract have always been conservative and believed some "other" is responsible for their failure to get ahead in life. Their views align with the current GOP and no amount of different messaging is going to win them back. They are dinosaurs, not the future, or present, of the Dem party.

[brooklynite]

58. So, how do you think we won the 2018 election?

[Deminpenn]

59. It wasn't with conservative white guys

which is the demographic about which Carville is speaking although he evidently didn't say that explicitly.

I was born, raised and returned to live among these people. A lot may still be registered as D, but that isn't how they vote and hasn't been for years.

[brooklynite]

60. It was with white suburban women and men....

...as well as a smattering of votes from the "conservative" areas. Writing off everyone except safe Democratic voters is suicide.

[Septua]

61. You can't message against crazy

If the voters in the states can't see through the Republican lies and propaganda, recognize the threat and vote for sane leadership, we're fucked.

Link to tweet

?s=20&t=YApJgFOF-k5HH7o0_PSlzA

[liberalmediaaddict]

69. Totally agree

Republican have mastered the Steve Bannon approach to campaigning. Flood the zone with so much bullsh** voters don't know what is true anymore.

It's almost impossible for Democrats to break through all that media noise and propaganda.

We're in an almost impossible situation. Unless we start our own version of Fox News messaging is always going to be a problem.

[Kid Berwyn]

64. They should.

The GOP is led by a traitor and his NAZI lickspittles.

Yet, we’re behind in the polls?