Two polls suggest Fetterman's debate difficulties didn't impact the PA Senate race.

[LenaBaby61]

Another poll, for what it's worth 😆


Two polls taken after the much-ballyhooed debate between Mehmet Oz and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman suggest Mr. Fetterman’s demonstrated difficulty in overcoming the residual effects of a serious stroke had minimal — if any — impact on the Pennsylvania senate race between the two candidates.

The polls, from the Monmouth University Polling Institute and Muhlenberg University appear to confirm what is generally true this election cycle: That peoples’ preferences are locked in and barring some cataclysmic event won’t move much between now and election day.

As reported by Julia Terruso for the Philadelphia Inquirer:

The Monmouth poll released Wednesday found 48% of voters will either definitely or probably vote for Fetterman, compared to 44% who said they would definitely or probably back Oz. That’s well within the poll’s 4.5-point margin of error, meaning the poll shows the race is essentially tied.

In the Muhlenberg poll released Tuesday, 47% of likely voters said they were voting for Fetterman, and 47% said they were voting for Oz. Three percent said they’d vote for a third party candidate, and 2% were unsure. However, the poll had a significant margin of error: 6 percentage points. (In September, Fetterman led in Muhlenberg’s poll by 5 points. That poll also had a 6-point margin of error).

Fetterman continues to be viewed more favorably than Oz, who can’t seem to shake his New Jersey carpetbagger/snake oil salesman persona despite an influx of dark money ads casting him as some sort of “moderate.” As Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray, interviewed for the Inquirer article, explains, ”Oz is hanging in this race despite the fact that most Pennsylvania voters don’t really like him.” And while people have some doubts about Fetterman’s ability to serve out a six-year term in the U.S. Senate, those doubts appear to reflect more of a concern for his condition than a dismissal of his cognitive capacity. Most Democrats also appear to realize that if Oz wins the seat there is virtually no doubt that Democrats will lose control of the Senate.

The number of people who claim the debate caused them to reconsider their chosen candidate is quite small. As explained in the Monmouth poll summary:

In terms of direct impact, 3% of the Pennsylvania electorate – including 7% of independent voters – say they are reconsidering their candidate choice because of what they saw in last week’s debate. Another 22% say the debate raised serious concerns but did not cause them to reconsider their vote. Most voters either report no serious concerns from the debate (46%) or did not see or hear anything about the debate (27%).

Not mentioned in the polling but important nonetheless is the fact that PA gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro continues to lead his opponent, seditionist Doug Mastriano, by significant margins (54%-40% in the Muhlenberg U. poll). Although PA no longer permits “straight ticket” balloting with the push of a single button, we can assume that it still occurs in many instances, with people simply reflexively pushing the little sensor buttons or filling in the little spaces for all of their party’s respective candidates. Assuming those numbers continue to hold, Fetterman may receive some benefit from voters’ enthusiasm for Shapiro and disgust with Mastriano.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/2/2133111/-Two-polls-suggest-Fetterman-s-debate-difficulties-didn-t-impact-the-PA-Senate-race

[debm55]

1. Live in western PA, near Braddock. we knew John as Mayor of Braddock and the Lt. Governor. We

know about him pre stroke. My friends and family all voted a straight Democratic ticket. John went to the debate and contrary to what the media said, we respected him for his honesty. Many of us have people we know that had strokes or brain injuries. I suffered a concussion when I fell down two flights of steps at school. Left school to do my therapy, Fired me, when I couldn't teach as before-no pension, no workmen;s comp. and no unemployment. John will do well--he's a fighter.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

2. Thank you.

What you are saying is what I felt in my gut watching the debate here in CA.

[LenaBaby61]

3. Thank you and family for voting for Fetterman ... and your observations .....

right there on ground zero in Pennsylvania. And, I totally agree with you about Fetterman. He's a good guy and there to HELP the people who need help the most. He's well-educated (Harvard Grad), came from an extremely wealthy background, yet he chose to help disadvantaged and undeserved people in his community.

Again, thanks to you, fam and friends for voting to save democracy from that snake oil salesman. Every vote counts

[UTUSN]

4. K&R