Why The President's Party Almost Always Has A Bad Midterm

[Quixote1818]

It's pretty much unheard of for the Presidents party to do well during the Midterms. The way I see it, if it's close but we still lose congress, then it's kind of a win for us. If we pick up seats then that would be HUGE! These are not normal times so hopefully people get how important this election is.



By Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rakich

Filed under The Midterms

One of the most ironclad rules in American politics is that the president’s party loses ground in midterm elections. Almost no president is immune. President George W. Bush’s Republicans took a “thumping” in 2006. President Barack Obama’s Democrats received a “shellacking” in 2010. President Donald Trump’s Republicans were buried under a blue wave in 2018. And the results out of Virginia and New Jersey last November suggest that a red wave might hit President Biden’s Democrats in 2022.

It’s worth digging into the data behind this rule, though, and the reasons why it so often holds true. Are Republicans really a lock to sweep the 2022 midterms?

History certainly seems adamant that they will win the national popular vote for the U.S. House and gain seats there — although their prospects in the Senate are less certain. But as with any rule, there are exceptions. And some theories for why the “midterm curse” exists may contain some hints that Democrats may be able to hold their losses to a minimum. At this point, though, history isn’t on the Democrats’ side.

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More: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-presidents-party-almost-always-has-a-bad-midterm/

[onecaliberal]

1. This isn't a normal election. Can we stop acting like it is.

[pstokely]

2. what were they predicating in 2002 after 9/11?

when the pukes gained in the House and enough in the senate to take control

[liberalmediaaddict]

4. Exactly

It's maddening most Americans don't realize that. They think if they elect Republicans again and they fail they can just put Democrats back in power in a few years.

Not if Republicans refuse to concede when they lose elections and keep changing the rules using the courts.

Bizarrely many voters still think both parties are the same. They keep mentioning voting for the "lesser of two evils." They may soon find out just how extreme and cruel the Republican party has become.

[brooklynite]

5. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld: "You go to the election with the voters they have"

[Turbineguy]

3. Most of the history the republicans were not wacko.

Now they are.