if you still feel optimistic about next week, why?

[pstokely]

I'm expecting mixed results and surprises, maybe I'd feel more optimistic if we had better polling data even if it's wrong

[BigmanPigman]

1. I do.

There is a lot that the "polls" don't show. Ignore them!

[Blue Owl]

2. For some reason...

The Kansas abortion vote that happened in August -- in a deep red state -- gives me hope.

I don't live in Kansas, but I wonder if there were any polls taken prior to that election that indicated the 60/40 blowout? That sweeping blue victory really seemed to come out of the blue -- and I sure hope we see that 6 days from now...

[pstokely]

3. that wasn't polled much, but it showed a large amount of undecideds

Last edited Thu Nov 3, 2022, 01:44 AM - Edit history (1)

also GQP registration in KS was flat, Dem and Ind registration up, most house races have had little polling

[KS Toronado]

4. I kept hearing it was a toss-up in my solid red town

60/40 was more like a blowout. The same percentage I'd love to see our upcoming BLUE WAVE get.

[Polybius]

11. The key word is August, and very early August at that (8-2)

Dobbs was fresh in people's minds. Republicans couldn't be bothered.

[W_HAMILTON]

38. Oh please.

Abortion has pretty much been the #1 issue for Republicans for decades now. Who are you trying to convince that diehard Republicans in super red Kansas """couldn't be bothered""" to vote for a constitutional amendment banning abortion?

[Polybius]

39. It was a little election that never should have been in August

State constitutional amendments should all take place on Election Day. Republicans messed up. Laugh all you want, but you won't be for long.

[W_HAMILTON]

44. Republicans are usually known for turning out in these special non-Election Day elections.

Do you doubt this?

Once again, who are you trying to convince otherwise?

[Polybius]

46. Winners don't get motivated to vote as much as a block of voters who just lost (Roe)

Democrats all voted. Also, many Republicans did vote...to keep abortion rights. At least 30% of them are pro-choice. But alas, we'll see what happens Tuesday.

[PortTack]

5. Several reasons

The polls have been way off the last 3 election cycles
The special election surprises and ballot initiatives- nobody had NY19, palin losing in AK or the KS abortion issue on their bingo card
Voter registration is way up
Gen Z voters are showing up. Not everywhere, but in many states
Early voting numbers are matching a presidential election year, have way surpassed ‘18. When voting numbers are up, Dems win!
Lastly, who would have ever thought the GA runoff in ‘21 would give us not one but 2 dem senators and hand us a trifecta

I think it will be mixed results. I think the senate will hold..not so sure about the house. If the traitors take the house, their margin of victory will be very small and we will be better positioned to regain the house in ‘24. The above are facts, this last bit…JUST My opinion

[yankee87]

7. Excellent analysis

I 100% agree with you.

[Polybius]

12. The House maybe, but '24 will be all but impossible to keep or retake the Senate though

Only like 10 Republicans are defending seats, and 9 are super safe.

[Elessar Zappa]

26. Depends on how bad Republicans fuck things up.

If Biden can get his approval up over 50% by 2024, we will have an excellent chance at winning the House and Senate.

[Polybius]

34. But of those 10 up in '24, 8 or 9 aren't losing

Here's the list:

Republicans

Barrasso, John (R-WY)
Blackburn, Marsha (R-TN)
Braun, Mike (R-IN)
Cramer, Kevin (R-ND)
Cruz, Ted (R-TX)
Fischer, Deb (R-NE)
Hawley, Josh (R-MO)
Romney, Mitt (R-UT)
Scott, Rick (R-FL)
Wicker, Roger F. (R-MS)

Even if Biden is at 70%, only really Hawley or Cruz stand a small chance of losing. Plus Republicans will pick up WV for sure.

[Elessar Zappa]

36. We might not gain seats but

we can still keep a 50/50 Senate after 2024 if things are going our way.

[Polybius]

37. Yes

The good news is that of all the Democrats up in 2024, only Manchin losing is over 50%.

[mackdaddy]

6. Huge early voting turnout, and questionable polling methods.

I have heard several stories about the largest early voting turnouts for a midterm, and even larger than the 2020 presidential election cycle. And very large percentages were women. The anti-roe decision may not still be a rolling boil, but it is still a strong simmer.

By the way I see much fewer Trumpie flags and I am in a deep red part of Ohio. At least some of we older folk understand that the Repubs have made their plans to screw SS and Medicare if they get in public.

Nearly everyone I know has dumped their home phone. I still have my number, but I went to an ooma and let every call go to an answering machine. I used to get lots of those polling calls, but I get none now. So who are they talking to to get these polls answered? Not a lot of the voters, and especially not the younger crowd who never even had a landline.

There is only one poll that matters and it ends next Tuesday.

[rubbersole]

10. Yep.

Polling outfits use landlines. There is going to be a blue tsunami. Women are pissed. The only thing I know in 70 years on this planet - don't piss off a woman. It won't end well.

[JohnSJ]

18. Whether the polls are done via cell phone or landlines, because of all the spam calls that are

prevalent, and caller ID, I suspect many people do not answer calls from numbers they do not recognize, and whatever that number is, those people will not be accounted for in any poll except the one that counts on Election Day

[Capn Sunshine]

8. I'm working on ground and the feedback there is awesome!

I'm hearing about enthusiasm and a good turnout plan. Plus early voting numbers spike. Those voters sway Democratic by a large percentage.

Polls are all badly conceived and the only point is to feed the horserace narrative. The samples are truly bad.

Every election they do this. Republicans sweep. Democrats in disarray. Polls show bla bla bla.

Don't buy it. Work hard at the local level. Local Dem clubs or MoveOn.org have chapters near you. Or volunteer at the party level with @DNC.
There's still time. Reach out!

[LeftInTX]

9. Statistically there isn't a reason to be optimistic. I'm having trouble getting voters to the polls

In 2018, they all wanted Beto signs, now there isn't much demand. Turnout hasn't been all that great among Democrats. This isn't a poll, this is based on turnout. Sure there are the diehards, but I'm worried we could lose county seats. Two days left of early voting. I was hoping to see an uptick Tuesday and Wednesday, but turnout hasn't rebounded. We are not at the same percentage as 2018. We're down by 5-10% in turnout in Bexar County. El Paso and Hildago Counties are down by 50% in turnout from 2018. Blue counties hare having lower turnout. It appears that voters want to kinda go back to their 2014 habits. AKA: Democrats stayed home in 2014.

People are complacent. When boogie man Trump was in power they were motivated. They don't follow state and local politics. They watch MSNBC and CNN.

[LisaL]

13. That might be specific to TX?

In many other states, early in person voting is going well.

[LeftInTX]

23. Yes, TX only

[Kaleva]

14. In MI, there's been a 60% increase in returned absentee ballot compared to 2018

1.1 million ballots have been returned so far compared to 703k returned one week before the election in 2018 one week.

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/11m-absentee-ballots-so-far-michigan-overall-turnout-looks-lower-18

[LeftInTX]

24. That's good to hear

[JI7]

41. Could some of it be people deciding to continue voting absentee

after they did the first time during Covid in 2020 ?

[Amishman]

42. No one knows, which is why there is so much uncertainty

Early and mail in voting is definitely up a ton from 2018 - but there is no way of knowing if its actual high turnout or cannibalization of election day votes.

[Elessar Zappa]

28. That's not true everywhere though.

Here in NM I’m seeing much more excitement for Democrats than I saw in 2020 and maybe even 2018. One of our districts could easily flip to the Democrats (Vasquez is up by 3 points). The Republican candidate for governor is down 6-10 points, depending on the poll.

[LeftInTX]

29. Good to know!

[DarthDem]

15. Polls are garbage, etc, etc.

First you have the phony flood-the-narrative polls emitted by GOP propaganda arms. Then you have more mainstream polls herding to be in accordance with the phony polls (just as the propounders of the latter intend). Then the GOP candidates are largely terrible. Then there's the KS, AK, and NY-19 elections, all mispolled. Then there's the lack of quality House polling. Then, after all that, these horrible pollsters (fraudulent or just inept) still aren't showing anything close to a Republican wave. In 2010 the polls were unremitting and dire. That's not the case now. Finally, early voting looks good and many Dems (like Mandela Barnes and Catherine Cortez Masto) have momentum.

Many, many reasons for optimism exist. Take heart!

[mahina]

16. 67%

I wont say I feel optimistic exactly. All these deniers make me worried too. But I remember that at one point 67% of our COVID deaths were from Republican counties and 67% of Americans are for abortion rights. Don’t quote me or ask for a link please. Just a memory.

I wish they were not stupid about masks and vaccines but they were.

We all saw those traitors try to destroy our capital and then now here’s Nancy Pelosi’s husband in the freaking hospital. Democracy is in peril.

Countless former Republicans have said this is not a Republican party and they don’t want anything to do with them. We’re not sheep.

Caveat, I live in a bubble in deep blue Hawaii

[JohnSJ]

17. I am optimistic as long as Democrats, progressives, women, the young, etc., vote in large numbers

[Pachamama]

19. Gen Z

I believe they will show up

[Amishman]

20. The only silver lining I can find is in how bad of candidates they are running in PA an GA

And that late deciders will break our way because of Oz and Walker's deep fundamental flaws.

Desperately hoping we can squeak out a win there to keep a narrow majority in the Senate.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

21. This is the way I look at it

I think anything can happen, so why be depressed now and ruin my week? I will have plenty of time after the election to feel badly if it goes the wrong way, and more importantly, can start thinking how I can make things better afterwards.

[Ferrets are Cool]

22. Because I find it hard to believe the US is filled with idiots.

I have been proven wrong before.

[Elessar Zappa]

25. I always try and stay optimistic.

For my own sanity. That said, I think we’ll keep the Senate but I can’t guess regarding the House. Most analysts give us a 25% chance but I still have hope that there will be a Roe effect that will increase our chances.

[katmondoo]

27. I am very scared. The future is looking frightening

[katmondoo]

30. I am very scared. The future is looking frightening

[sarisataka]

31. Yes I do feel optimistic

Because I will be voting as well as almost everyone I know.

Also my expectations are fairly moderate. I expect Republicans to do slightly better, as the minority party usually does in the midterms, but it will not be an unmitigated disaster.

As for polls I look at them for what they are. A snapshot of a particular group of people at a particular time. Good/bad is fairly irrelevant. If over the course of weeks there is a steady trend of one party increasing or decreasing then I will take more notice.

[wiggs]

32. Common sense tells me we can't have THAT many hateful, ignorant people as

neighbors, colleagues, and friends. So I'm hopeful...but since 2016 I've been constantly surprised by how many there do seem to be.

I'm ultimately hopeful, but don't think we'll have a clear decision on Tuesday. I believe there will be many attempts to create chaos and mistrust in the results. Challenges, accusations, lawsuits, etc. And, this time, an effort to plant evidence of voter fraud. Real fraud won't be successful because of the checks and balances in the systems...but MAGAS need to create the impression that fraud exists so someone somewhere will do what they can to 'prove' that dems cheat, non-citizens would risk jail to cast one illegal vote, and that elections are rigged.

[wiggs]

40. ...another explanation is that she was sowing illegal ballots to 'find' fraud later. link

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142989844

[mcar]

33. I'm optimistic bc of the early voting numbers

except here in FL, which I'm feeling pessimistic about.

[peggysue2]

35. Feel the same way

The early vote makes me think we will not be crushed, left for roadkill, as was the prediction at the top of the year.

The Senate races are tight but not impossible. If our young voters come out en masse on E-day, we can definitely win the day. Fetterman, for instance, is winning the early vote by 50+. Oz may appear to be ahead as the E-day vote is counted first but those Democratic banked votes will be counted and change the tallies throughout the night. Wait for it!

The House? That's a crap shoot but my hope is we keep the Repug numbers down, so that McCarthy is handed a shit sandwich, a low majority at best and a two-year nightmare for his grand ambition where the Magat caucus/circus demonstrates its desire for chaos and non-governance at every level and makes McCarthy look like the power hungry fool he is.

Why?

Because the elected crazies will reveal themselves in living color, a full exposure for the American public leading straight into 2024. Magats are not leaders or interested in the country's welfare. They're bomb throwers, chaos agents, publicity hounds at best. That will be on full display.

So yes, considering where we were at the top of 2022, I'm optimistic.

[Initech]

43. I'm not going to get my hopes up too early.

Because when that happens, it usually leads to disappointment. So I will not. But really, fuck Kari Lake, Herschel Walker, Dr. Oz, Greg Abbott, and Doug Mastriano.

[Snarkoleptic]

45. Mrs. Snark and I early voted today and the poll workers said it was a hugely

busy day with lots of voters. High turnout tends to help Democrats, so we're optimistic.

[jcgoldie]

47. the fundamentals are against us but

The early voting numbers are very encouraging.

[Efilroft Sul]

48. The Republicans have persuaded all the people they'll be able to persuade.

Democrats still have opportunities to tout their successes/defenses with younger voters (student loan relief, reproductive rights), seniors (save Social Security), young parents (baby formula) veterans (we got the burn pits medical expansion done), and any anybody who needs lower medicine prices. Get the word out to the people who need to hear it. Tailor your message and make sure they vote D!