I'm highly optimistic about next Tuesday. Here's why:

[jcmaine72]

After watching President Biden's great speech last night, I'm more convinced than ever that our democracy will be preserved after next Tuesday's midterm elections.

He couldn't have been more clear that we just need to be patient and wait for all the votes to be properly counted in the days following the election. That's certainly advice I intend to take to heart on election day, no matter how dire the initial results may seem.

With that in mind, I have a feeling we're going to win big next Tuesday. We'll just need to be patient. All the reTHug racist scare-mongering on crime and the border will come to naught in the end. In ten years, no one will even remember who Kari Lake, Lee Zeldin, or that quack Dr. Oz even is.

[yankee87]

1. Blue tsunami

I’m predicting a Blue tsunami on election night. Polls are useless now and their discounting the Roe vote.

[NJCher]

2. DU is not generally an optimistic place

I’ve seen other optimistic posts, too.

[hlthe2b]

3. Anxiety rules right now. I like seeing more optimistic posts but the uncertainty & the stakes

make that really difficult. Still, all the negative posts are undoubtedly having a really bad effect on some of our DUers so I wish people would not seek out the most negative takes on an election that has not yet happened and based on polling that even the pollsters have to admit can not deliver accurate results when they are so close.

Deep breaths, hug a puppy or kitty or bearded dragon or whatever your source of solace, and hang in, everyone...

[CountAllVotes]

4. That's 100% true

We must CountAllVotes !!!

Blue tsumani indeed!

& recommend!

[mopinko]

5. i think the assassination attempt is sinking in.

even tho hardly anyone on my teevee has the stones to call it that.
strikes me as an emmitt till moment.

[vercetti2021]

8. I agree

People are seeing the GOP as a fascist movement rising to dangerous levels. And they won't denounce those who lit the fuse. People do see how fascist they have become.

[Joinfortmill]

6. I agree, but we're in a hellava mess

[SuperCoder]

7. Quite honestly

I think many polls are seriously (whether intentionally or not) underestimating women (who outnumber men) and the democratic voters who are all pissed off at our Supreme Clown Court for rolling back women's rights.

Here's a warning to the repiglicans: don't take away anyone's rights. You'll live to regret it at the polls.

[Omnipresent]

15. According to the GQP...

Women didn’t have a “right” to choose what to do with their bodies.

They simply had the “privilege”, because only privileges not rights, can be taken away.

[Amishman]

16. I think the polls have a lot more uncertainty than in the past

All pollsters rely on a turnout model to normalize and match their responses to the overall electorate.

I think those models are shaky this time around. You have conflicting major motivators; Dobbs backlash pushing one way, inflation and economics pushing the other.

With the pandemic distorting recent voting patterns, mail-in and early voting data is suspect as its not apples to apples.

[oldsoftie]

9. I'm optimistic, but I'm also realistic. The House is gone.

We can only hope the Senate stays. Ga, with its stupid runoff laws, will likely have Warnock & Walker again in 4 weeks.
There's NO excuse for voting for people like Oz,Walker, Masters or Vance. But the average voter is nothing like the average DUer; they focus on wants in front of them.
One other way to look at it; a GOP House will probably spend all their time on stupid shit like endless "investigations" and impeachments. The voters will see this as stupid & by '24 they may be ready to toss THEM again

[Demsrule86]

11. The house is not gone. We have ROE vote and I saw a legit generic poll that showed us up by 5.

If that is true. We keep the House, And there are a number of races to close to call. So perhaps you should consider keeping the doom and gloom to yourself. It helps no one. Everyone here knows we may lose the house. But we might not.

[oldsoftie]

17. Its not "doom & gloom" its reality. And I believe we can keep the Senate.

Thats being optimistic. NO legitimate poll shows keeping the House; too much gerrymandering. Unless we have massive turnout of the youth vote. Blacks are also showing to be ambivalent this election. THEY need to turn out too.
As far as roe, there's another OP on here referring to the "suburban women" who tilted the lead to Dems in June are now tilting towards the GOP. Why? I don't know. If a decision like that pissed me off in June I'm still pissed off today.
I'm hoping for what happened in Kansas to be replicated next week. Thats a pretty red state showing how people really feel. But again, the average voter isn't a DUer. They're looking at gas prices, food prices, rent, etc. And fair or not, whoever is in office gets the credit & the blame for what's going on at election time. WE know the many factors behind what's going on but the average voter doesnt pay attention to that
But you're free to be as positive as you like
I would like NOTHING better than to come here and post how wring I was. I WANT to be wrong. And if I am, I will fall on the sword publicly

[brooklynite]

20. +5 doesn't get us the House.

First, as you may realize, this is * A * poll. Which will be replaced in a day or so by another poll. All I think you can grasp is that the electorate is fairly evenly split.

Second, a generic poll generally has to be +8 or better to be indicative. Between political tribalism and gerrymandering, there simply aren't that many competitive House seats left.

[Demsrule86]

12. Oh and your post was anything but optimistic.

[hlthe2b]

21. Ya think? LOL

Damn.

[Elessar Zappa]

22. The House isn't necessarily gone.

Most analysts give us a 25% chance of keeping it. Not great odds, certainly, but not insurmountable either.

[claudette]

10. For those who blame President Biden

For high gas prices and the high cost of groceries, etc. Why doesn't someone ask magats what their candidate offers as a solution for that? Is cutting social security and Medicare really their answer? If it is then how can magat seniors accept that?

[newdayneeded]

18. they'll just reply taxcuts

for millionaires, and their voters will lick it up as usual.

[Scrivener7]

13. I don't know what will happen. But I have voted, I've been getting out

the vote and will continue to do so until next week. For my efforts, the die is cast so it's just time to wait and hope.

[doc03]

14. It was a good speech that he needed to do. But he is preaching to the choir, the

other side will just not listen. The take away from the Republicans will be talking about
him being mentally incompetent because of him saying the war in Iraq instead of Ukraine. That will be all
over social media now, they won't show that he corrected it. A couple days ago they played him saying we had 54 states
and claiming he fell asleep in a MSNBC interview when he paused for about 2 seconds. That is the world we are in.

[Wednesdays]

19. K&R.

[dalton99a]

23. A great speech, but Kansas and the J6 hearings had lulled certain folks into complacency

GOTV is the only option remaining

[traitorsgalore]

24. I am too because of the 10s of millions of early voters

Who knows how long it'll take to get through all the rethug claims of fraud after the election, it could take months.

[peggysue2]

26. I'm cautiously optimistic

Particularly for our Senate majority. The House? I think that's a crap shoot. Could the House go our way? Of course, but it would mean a literal Blue tsunami on E-day. The early vote is very encouraging and means Dems are banking a sizable number of votes. Is it enough to counterweight the basic structural advantage the Republicans have in these Congressional districts if their MAGAT voters come out en masse, prove the pollsters right about 'high intensity' in Red areas, or if our own young voters simply decide to stay home?

Don't know. There are so many variables this year and so much is on the line.

We shall all know soon. I'm bracing for a night of ups and downs and all over the place.

Keep pushing! Even if the Repugs take the House, we want to keep that number as low as possible.