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Is that big lead for Sharice Davids over Amanda Adkins just a polling mirage? (KC Star)
another reason to ignore the polls good or bad and GOTV
https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/readers-opinion/guest-commentary/article268199257.html
Why? Because the poll has all the hallmarks of “nonresponse bias,” The Times’ Nate Cohn explained in a newsletter published Tuesday. Basically, Democratic voters in the 3rd District were far more likely to answer pollsters’ questions than Republicans, and that gap could well have skewed the final numbers toward Davids.
Nonresponse bias is a national issue for pollsters — it probably explains why 2020 polls memorably underestimated Donald Trump’s support in the presidential election — but the problem really showed up in the recent Kansas poll: Democrats were 70% more likely than Republicans to answer questions. That’s a huge number. “I’m pretty sure that’s the largest disparity in partisan nonresponse we’ve ever encountered,” Cohn wrote, adding that Davids’ apparent double-digit lead was “a solid 10 percentage points more than I would have guessed before we fielded the poll.”
Nonresponse bias is a national issue for pollsters — it probably explains why 2020 polls memorably underestimated Donald Trump’s support in the presidential election — but the problem really showed up in the recent Kansas poll: Democrats were 70% more likely than Republicans to answer questions. That’s a huge number. “I’m pretty sure that’s the largest disparity in partisan nonresponse we’ve ever encountered,” Cohn wrote, adding that Davids’ apparent double-digit lead was “a solid 10 percentage points more than I would have guessed before we fielded the poll.”