Texas vote 6 days till Election day

[ColinC]

From target early

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?state=TX&view_type=state

Texas early vote 6 days till Election Day in 2018, 2020 and 2022. The percentages definitely seem encouraging although turnout overall seems to be lower than previous years. If their modeling is correct, Republican turnout is down 7 points from 2018 where Beto came within 3 points of beating Ted Cruz.

Take this all with a grain of salt but, if nothing else, it shows that if we work hard enough -winning is within reach!!



Modeled Party

2018 2020 2022
D 39.4%. 38.2%. 39.8%
R 52.0%. 50.2. 45.4%
NP 8.6% 11.6. 14.9%

[yankee87]

1. Hopeful for Texas

Hopeful for Texas but I’ve been burned before with the stupidity of Texans.

[ColinC]

2. My hopeful hypothesis is that TX will go the way

Of California after their Republican leaders brought in policy that was way too extreme.

[Polybius]

3. As someone pointed out to me, Republicans used to vote early

Then Trump told them not to, so they are mostly voting in person now.

[ColinC]

4. Yeah we honestly have no idea what the Election Day vote will look like

Now I do think he might have said don’t vote by mail. Early in-person votes by republicans in states like Florida match or surpass their previous percentages. And in 2020 I think they voted according to his instructions.


There’s a possibility they may very well not turnout as much this year. Or that the modeling is off, or of course that they will show up on Election Day.

Beto has a strong ground game. While there is no reason to be overconfident, we also must stay hopeful and do everything we can to win

[tanyev]

5. Interesting that Republican turnout is down so much.

They’re probably all waiting for Election Day. I popped in and out of early voting in about 10-15 minutes. They want to spend a few hours standing and waiting in line, go right ahead.