Final Yahoo News/YouGov midterm poll spells trouble for Democrats

[Peacetrain]

https://news.yahoo.com/final-yahoo-news-you-gov-midterm-poll-spells-trouble-democrats-171717450.html

"The survey of 1,641 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Oct. 27 to 31, found that the two parties are now effectively tied — within the poll’s 2.7% margin of error — among all registered voters (46% Democrat, 44% Republican) as well as among those who have already voted or say they will definitely vote on Nov. 8 (49% Democrat, 47% Republican).

In August, Democrats were ahead on the so-called generic ballot question — which asks respondents which candidate they would vote for in their congressional district if the election were held today — by 6 points (45% to 39%). As recently as late September, they were ahead by 4 (45% to 41%)."

I'm sorry but if they are statistically tied, that is a loss for the republicans because the out of power party usually wins seats by double digits

Also from the same article

"Enthusiasm, for one thing, is likely to favor the opposition party. While Democrats have an early-voting edge — one in five registered voters (20%) say they have already voted, up from 5% two weeks ago, and so far they prefer Democrats (64%) over Republicans (33%)"

[DestinyIsles]

1. I think they don't believe their own poll and they think it underestimates Republicans

hence the headline

[czarjak]

2. Could someone explain the attraction to The Right?

[Amishman]

3. Why are people supporting them? Several factors I see

They did a great job hanging inflation on us, which we facilitated by downplaying it at the onset.

We have also been put in an awkward place on some social issues. Trans rights and acceptance has been pushed to the forefront - especially where children are concerned - and the public just isn't very accepting. Pew's polling this year found 60% of Americans believe gender is dictated by genetics and set at birth. That percent is actually rising, as back in 2017 that number was 54%.

The 'defund the police' slogan has been turned on us as well, being used to frame us as soft on crime in a time of rising crime rates. The failure of bail reform, and several high profile cases where suspects released on bail turned around and committed violent crimes hasn't helped.

[ck4829]

6. Because nobody wants to say "Billionaires cause inflation", the awful truth

It's weird how people believe in genetics yet there are people in prison despite DNA evidence exonerating them.

https://www.injusticewatch.org/interactives/trading-away-justice/west-virginia.html

It would be nice if we could hammer this all more.

That's two issues tied together... goes to show that Republicans are adept at just throwing stuff together.

[Amishman]

11. 'billionaires cause inflation' is the type of line that shreds our economic credibility

billionaires and corporate greed are non-factors compared to the impact of the federal reserve.

shamelessly copied and pasted from one of my earlier posts:

The Fed's drunken asset purchasing program created six trillion dollars out of mid air. M2 money supply went from 15.5 to 21.5 trillion - roughly a 40% increase.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

By increasing the amount of dollars in circulation, we decrease the buying power of each dollar. Inflation.

In a way, we are fortunate inflation has not been worse. Wages and prices are sticky, meaning they are slow to increase in response to external factors. That drag has slowed inflation which is why we have not seen 40% cumulative inflation over the past 30 months. It is also why inflation is so persistent, prices and wages have not caught up to the expanded money supply.

Worse, as people's behavior adjusts to the increased money supply and inflationary expectations, the velocity of money increases. The expanded money supply changing hands at a faster pace effectively acts as an inflationary multiplier.

billionaires / corporate greed is a tiny factor compared to the macroeconomic pressure caused by the Fed's actions.

[BumRushDaShow]

16. "By increasing the amount of dollars in circulation, we decrease the buying power of each dollar."

That's what normally happens and the dollar would then become nearly worthless around the world.

Yet what has happened because of the globalization of the effects of multiple catastrophic "events" - despite a global pandemic coming on the heals of a, partial recovery from an earlier global economic collapse that happened in the mid-2000s, and then the Russia/Ukraine war - the U.S. dollar continues to be strong against the usual basket of currencies.

For example against the Euro (from here) -



And against a panopoly of currencies (from here) -



Thus there is lots of head-scratching going on.

So the "fundamentals" of what is going on right now are not modeled well, having little or no precedent (outside of what I have posted before regarding that era around WWI, with a similar global pandemic and with extreme weather events (e.g., "extreme cold" and "record flooding" ).

They have historical financial modeling but little if any take into account (or can truly capture) what became a seismic shock (pandemic) to "the system", and the indicator responses to that have been going haywire while the analysts devote many column inches to trying to pretzel twist what they see into their "expectations".

[ck4829]

17. Good. We don't need credibility with the people who think billionaires are demigods

or are "better" or "superior" to everyone else.

[czarjak]

7. Two kinds of Republicans, rich ones and dumb ones. The joke that gets truer with age.

And its old like me.

[Nevilledog]

4. I give zero weight to polling

Link to tweet

Tweet text:

Tom Bonier

@tbonier
·
Follow
So, within the past few hours we've seen four polls released in GA SEN:

Warnock +5
Warnock +2
Walker +4
Walker +7

the range of variation in polls at this point is absolutely wild.
11:28 AM · Nov 3, 2022

Republicans have destroyed polling... Just like they destroy everything.

[Peacetrain]

5. Amen to that (republicans have destroyed about everything)

[Metaphorical]

8. That was by design

Good polling is usually pretty telling. Flooding the channels with push polling and similar fake news about the polls is intended to destroy polling as a check on the election itself.

[Nevilledog]

9. It can suppress turnout and they'll use it to deny results.

[Gordolfon]

10. How is a tie trouble for the president's party?

Okay is the bar so high now that Democrats must retain the house in an off year?

[pwb]

12. It is Yahoo news?

People still use that? It always leaned right IMO. Fuck them.

[budkin]

13. The media is spinning ALL DAY for the GOP "Red Wave"

This sounds like the NYT article last week where the polls didn't match their narrative.

[SheltieLover]

14. Not buying Yahoo's bs! Lots of red-slanted articles lately

Esp in the past week or so.

Let's go, DU!

[Sympthsical]

15. Paid survey people

YouGov and Morning Consult both use paid surveys.

They’re the only two polls I side eye out of hand.

That’s said, they usually crazy favor us. So I give this poll one eyebrow raise.