Nevada Democrats are in trouble.

[RandySF]

The regional breakdowns don’t help much. Clark is only 68.5 percent of the vote, which is two and a half points below its actual percentage. But the rurals also are below their 12.2 percent by half a point. Washoe is over-performing and is 3.5 percent above its reg at 19.9 percent of the turnout.

The 21,3000-ballot lead the Repubs have in the rurals right now (especially if you extrapolate to what it translates into in votes) just about wipes out the Clark Dem firewall, so if Washoe leans one way or another, it could decide the fate of most statewide races.

I’ll keep an eye on those numbers, too. The larger the percentage of turnout Clark is, even with a more porous firewall, the better for Dems; the smaller it is, and if the rurals go up, the better for Repubs. I’d guess Washoe will be close either way – it leans Dem in turnout now, but just barely – and if it’s not, that will change everything. (Remember that Democrats Jacky Rosen and Steve Sisolak won Washoe last midterm; I am not so sure Sisolak and CCM can do the same this time.)

Reminder of turnout past four cycles and why turnout as low as 50 percent could be just what the GOP craves, all other thing be equal and they just don't seem to be in this apple year.




https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

[czarjak]

1. Republicans...

Are the party of the rich. If you're not rich and voting Republican, you're slitting your own throat. But, that's none of my business. (I've been told)

[Salviati]

2. There are two types of folks in the world

Those that sign the front of the paycheck and those that sign the back.

If you sign the back of the paycheck, and you vote republican, you're an idiot, and likely also a cruel asshole.

If you sign the front of the paycheck, and you vote republican, you're a cruel asshole, and likely also an idiot.

[czarjak]

17. One correction. Positively, not likely..

[Emile]

25. There are two types of folks in the world, tax evading billionaires

and people who are not tax evading billionaires. People who are not tax evading billionaires that vote republican, shoot themself in the foot just to entertain the tax evading billionaires.

[czarjak]

28. The price of Lib-ownership.

[iemanja]

23. Most voting in American today revolves around cultural signifiers rather than

economics or policy. Race is particularly important, as is the related notion of "people like us."

[NullTuples]

3. Thank you Randy, for this update.

[NBachers]

4. For what it's worth, another contribution to Catherine Cortez Masto.

https://secure.actblue.com/my-express/search?term=Catherine+Cortez+Masto&id=39621

[RandySF]

6. +1

[sunonmars]

5. The Dem Clark firewall is up to 29K now due to late ballots

Was just reading due to late issue of ballots, they are late coming back now.

No more early in person voting but mail ballots can come back up to next Friday, not just up to election day.

The Dems had a very good day on the last day of early in person voting and the mail ballots were double the GOP yesterday.

So there are good signs of a good turnaround.

Only mail ballots coming in now and that should benefit Dems.

Link to tweet

[Lovie777]

9. If I'm reading this correctly .....

NV Dems need approximately 11,000 more to reach the fire wall?

[Takket]

18. wait how can "other" be 29.7%?

is this telling us 29.7% are voting third party??? That isn't a believable number.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

22. That's registration

of the voter returning the ballot, not the vote itself. No vote counts have been released yet.

[iemanja]

24. Early voting numbers aren't about votes cast

We can't know that. It's about the party affiliation of the voters. 29.7% are independents.

[Takket]

26. that makes sense. Thank you!

[Amishman]

7. Been reading that the state level party is dysfunctional

That the resignations following DSA taking most of the leadership positions last year has really weakened the gotv effort. Would make sense as a good ground game is built on good people with good connections.

[JohnSJ]

8. Yup. The DSA completely decimated the Democratic Reid machine that was in place there. If we lose

Nevada, it will be a direct result of this, and should have been a warning that certain states, especially those that have the caucus system, are more subject to influence and control of the more extreme members within the Democratic party.

Nevada was one such state.

[Elessar Zappa]

13. I think Ralston said

the Democratic Reid machine is still mostly in place. He’s the expert on Nevada politics.

[brooklynite]

16. Nevada no longer has a caucus system.

But perhaps DSA activists need to realize the job of Party leadership is to get people elected, not to advocate for a specific ideology.

[JohnSJ]

19. Didn't that happen in June 2021, after the DSA debacle?

[Deminpenn]

10. That's not what Ralston said a couple days ago on MSNBC

Not sure what show it was, but Ralston was on. He said the same people who were running the Reid Machine are still running it.

[Amishman]

11. Were were numerous articles on the mass resignation

Here's one.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/challengers-seize-nevada-democratic-party/2021/03/10/3b846226-80ef-11eb-ac37-4383f7709abe_story.html

[JohnSJ]

12. Exactly. That being said, it is not a lost cause. The polls indicate it is tied, and turnout on

our side will mean everything

[Amishman]

14. definitely not a lose cause, just a vulnerability that could have been avoided

That well oiled NV election machine had a purple state acting pretty darn blue. Take away that carefully built advantage, and NV is back to acting like its actual voter composition.

[Deminpenn]

20. You can believe the WaPo or believe a native Nevadan

who has long, credible experience in covering Nevada politics.

[LeftInTX]

21. Ugh....Nevada?? Really???

[SunImp]

27. Yes, there has been some infighting between the current & old Democratic leadership here in NV

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/557563-infighting-grips-nevada-democrats-ahead-of-midterms/

The current NV party is more progressive, but not as experienced as the previous admin. They also are not big fans of Israel. On the other side of things we have the "Reid Machine" who ran NV for years. When the new group got into power instead of supporting & guiding them the "Reid Machine" all resigned & took a sizeable amount of the state party's funds and put it into the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee account. This branch also moved to Washoe to start up operations up there. There was some minor infighting before this, but this is the most recent one.

Don't listen to the hacks who want to soley blame the current state party for our possibly loses next Tuesday. You know these people have an agenda when they attack one side while conveniently ignoring any faults or wrong doing of their preferred side. Really both sides of this bare some responsibility in our bad numbers this cycle. The current leadership needs to tone it down with the anti Israel rhetoric & do more to gotv. The Reid Machine" or "Nevada Democratic Victory" should have helped guided the current party to success & not let past grievances make them distrust the new administration.


Also this is Judith Whitmer chair of the Nevada State Democratic Party

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Here's what the Late Senator Harry Reid has to say about Our big bad DSA supporter Judith Whitmer.

Judith Whitmer and the so-called split in the Nevada Democratic Party is exaggerated because there isn't one," Reid said. "She is a good Democrat. She is doing everything she can to organize and I think the relationship between Judith and the state party operation and Washoe County, which is very strong, is doing rather well. So I'm not concerned about that at all."

https://www.nevadaappeal.com/news/2021/jun/12/reid-says-so-called-split-nevada-democrats-exagger/

[Gordolfon]

15. We will prevail

Pundits will eat crow.