Dems' Senate super PAC launches ads on Winfrey's support for Fetterman

[JoeOtterbein]

Politico

Fetterman’s Republican opponent, celebrity physician Mehmet Oz, appeared often on Winfrey’s talk show before launching “The Dr. Oz Show.”

By HOLLY OTTERBEIN

11/05/2022 05:01 AM EDT

The top Democratic Senate super PAC is rushing to put Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of John Fetterman on the airwaves.

It is launching a new television ad featuring the superstar’s announcement on Thursday evening that she supports Fetterman in Pennsylvania’s race for the Senate.

Fetterman’s Republican opponent, celebrity physician Mehmet Oz, appeared often on Winfrey’s talk show before launching “The Dr. Oz Show.”

In the spot, first shared with POLITICO, a narrator says, “She knows Oz better than anyone. But Oprah wouldn’t vote for him.” The commercial then features Winfrey’s remarks that “if I lived in Pennsylvania, I would have already cast my vote for John Fetterman.”

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more at link

[gab13by13]

1. The ads are non stop in Pa.

A few more OZ ads now, I think, but Fetterman has a lot.

They do them rapid fire during sporting events, and local news.

Shapiro has a super ad tying Mastriano to QAnon, shows him holding a huge sword at some Q event.

[Amishman]

2. The Mastriano headwind on Oz could be an edge

Split ticket voting just isn't common. Mastriano has his vocal supporters, but he's toast where it matters - independents.

I'm doubting many of those swing voters will vote Shapiro and then select Oz.

[BumRushDaShow]

3. "Split ticket voting just isn't common."

Yet THAT is exactly what happened right here in PA with Josh Shapiro when he was running for AG in 2016 and 2020.

I have posted this before but when you have your AG candidate actually receive MORE votes than either of the 2016 OR 2020 Presidential candidates ((D) OR (R)), then that = "split ticket voting" (and/or undercount for certain positions - i.e., not selecting a candidate for a position).

2016





2020



Yes, Josh Shapiro actually got more votes in 2020 than Biden!

[Celerity]

4. Thank you for posting this.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. You're welcome

I get about 1/2 dozen emails from the Shapiro campaign daily (including ones "from his family members" ) and have a lawn sign and donated (plus get lots of mailers and door hangtags). And the tone of his whole campaign has been of a "steady as she goes" caliber, where nothing from him has been hyperbolic.

But the lack of theatrics from him does not indicate weakness but the opposite. He fended off dozens of lawsuits against this state regarding "The Big Lie®". And notice how the media whined and then demanded that "we" not call it that anymore and voila! The term has disappeared.

It is a true reflection of his entire campaign career going back to his days in the state House, then as a County Commissioner, and eventually state AG, and he has a good-sized moderate Republican (old-school type) support base who are repulsed by people like Mastriano.

His running mate is Austin Davis (left) who is running for Lt. Governor.

[Amishman]

6. Yes, but that is tiny compared to the 10+ gap from Oz to Mastriano

I can see split ticket gaps of 2-4%, not 10+%

[BumRushDaShow]

7. Look at the gap between Shapiro and McGinty in 2016.

I.e., THAT is the seat that Oz and Fetterman are running for right now - Toomey's.

IOW - Houston there's a problem.

But I will add in the case of Shapiro and Mastriano this go-around, Shapiro has a strong, almost Obama-like moderate GOP support infrastructure who would almost be the equivalent to the "never-Trumpers" in terms of being anti-Mastriano, so a larger swing wouldn't be out of the question.