Why has JD Vance's lead been growing the past two weeks?

[Polybius]

Tim Ryan has been outstanding as a candidate. Is it because Mike DeWine is so far ahead, and pulling a MAGA like Vance up with him?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/oh/ohio_senate_vance_vs_ryan-7624.html

[BannonsLiver]

1. Because Ohio is basically a colder version of Alabama

[jimfields33]

25. I think it has to do with dewine

He’s so far ahead, he’ll drag him across with him. On the other side of the coin, same will happen in Pennsylvania.

[Ocelot II]

2. Do we know for sure that is happening?

[Polybius]

5. We know for sure it's happening in recent polls

What we don't know for sure is what will happen on Tuesday.

[LisaL]

29. Early voting seems to be going well in OH.

Turnout is pretty decent for a midterm election. So we just have to wait and see as to what happens on Tuesday.

[Demsrule86]

40. It is not happening...Marist out yesterday says it is tied.

The other polls which I posted are righty garbage polls.

[Polybius]

68. Sometime, being too positive can be a bad thing

Have to be a realist when it comes to elections.

[Celerity]

46. here are the latest polls, which are not exactly all reliable

[Demsrule86]

51. Thanks for this...they post shitty polls whch reduces donations and dampens the vote. We might

win or we might lose but it is not over in Ohio or anywhere.

[Celerity]

61. A lot of the negativity's coming from that newer A- rated Emerson College poll (Ryan down 8/9)

I ignore the Rethug spin polls like Cygnal (one of the worst) and also put less stock in Remington and Trafalgar.

[Elessar Zappa]

3. It was always a long shot.

Ohio’s pretty reliably red now.

[Demsrule86]

53. Ryan is doing well and may very well win.

[Elessar Zappa]

55. I hope so!

I’m definitely not writing him off.

[MacKasey]

6. Isn't RealClearPolitics a right wing poll?

[Polybius]

11. They aren't a polling company

The are a site that lists other polls. Here's 538's list of polls and odds if you like that one better.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/ohio/

[Demsrule86]

42. You know that the polls except for Marist are righty polls and Marist has it tied.

[Deminpenn]

34. RCP is a poll aggregator and opinion website

that's run by Republicans. As with any site that takes data and just averages it, GIGO applies.

[GoCubsGo]

7. Because the GOP has been push-polling to make it look lke their guys are ahead.

They hope to discourage Democrats from coming out, as well as having something to point at as "fraud" when their guy loses.

[LakeArenal]

8. Yes!!!!

[Bettie]

12. This

They are flooding the aggregator sites with their polling, push polls mostly.

And for exactly the reasons you state.

[jimfields33]

26. I don't think there's a single democrat that would skip voting over a stupid poll.

[W_HAMILTON]

38. I do.

[Polybius]

39. Then they are fools

I've voted when my candidate had no chance of winning.

[W_HAMILTON]

49. If you haven't noticed, there are a lot of fools here in America.

[Demsrule86]

52. It also reduces donations.

[gldstwmn]

28. The thing is we've already voted in record numbers.

The early turnout favors us. Their side votes on election day. One article I saw said that Georgia may eclipse its 2020 turnout.

[LisaL]

30. There is still plenty of Democrats left to vote.

Young voters hopefully plan to vote on Election day.

[Demsrule86]

43. There is only one good poll in this OP is Marist. And it is tied.

[Celerity]

60. Emerson College (A- rated) is newer and has Ryan down 8 and 9 points.

Ohio 2022: Vance Extends Lead Over Ryan for US Senate

November 4th, 2022

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/ohio-2022-vance-extends-lead-over-ryan-for-us-senate/

Nature of the Sample: Marist Poll of 1,240 Ohio Adults

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Marist-Poll_OH-NOS-and-Tables_202210211358.pdf

This survey of 1,240 Ohio adults was conducted October 17th through October 20th, 2022 by the Marist
Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Ohio were contacted through a multi-mode
design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. The sampling frames include RDD plus listed
landline, cell phone sample based on billing address to account for inward and outward mobility within a
state, and aggregated online research panels. Survey questions were available in English or Spanish.
Phone and online samples were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its
population. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2020 American Community
Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and race. Regional adjustments were made for turnout
in similar elections. Results are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. There are 1,141
registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.9 percentage points.
There are 942 registered voters who definitely plan to vote in November’s election. The results for this
subset are statistically significant within ±4.3 percentage points. Tables include results for subgroups to
only display crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. It should be noted that although you may not
see results listed for a certain group, it does not mean interviews were not completed with those
individuals. It simply means the sample size is too small to report. The error margin was adjusted for
sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.

[Polybius]

69. If true, I guess it worked in Ohio n/t

[czarjak]

9. Cutting off your nose to spite your face?

[DestinyIsles]

10. Unfortunately JD Vance consolidated the Republican base

and that's all he needs in a red state like Ohio. Ryan's best hope is there a lot of Republican cross over votes come election day.

[Demsrule86]

45. That is not true. GOP are on the air in support of Tim Ryan. I live in Ohio. I have heart them and

tons of Ryan signs too.

[anotherOKIE]

13. Fake and dishonest polls

The Rethugs are very good at dishonesty and false hoods and they are playing that game with polls by flooding the data aggregators with made-up polling numbers. Don't fall for their bs. Democrats and liberals are basically good honest people.

[Polybius]

15. So you think polling companies come together and lie?

And then add a few points to the Republican candidate? Even the reliable ones? That would be a major, major conspiracy and would also be highly illegal.

[Elessar Zappa]

16. I don't think it's a conspiracy.

But I do take all polls, good or bad, with a grain of salt because polling firms have had trouble implementing accurate methodologies these past six years.

[Demsrule86]

58. There is no question that Republican donors are funding these righty polls so yeah it is a

conspiracy...to dampen Democratic voting and to have something they can use to say we stole the election.

[anotherOKIE]

24. Listen to it...

[Deminpenn]

66. That was interesting especially

the part about the media being invested in the narrative that Rs are going to win. That is real human behavior thing.

[Deminpenn]

35. Pollsters like Trafalger, InsiderAdvantage, Wick

use turnout models (i.e. Likely Voters) that over-samle or over-weight white men because they believe that demographic is under-polled in all other polls. Since white men are a big part of the R base, these polls would tend to overstate R support.

I noticed that InsiderAdvantage specifically has released a lot of polls within the last month or so. Those numbers would tend to skew results (making the races closer than they might actually be) on sites that just aggregate and average polling data.

[Demsrule86]

54. The right leaning ones are being paid by GOP donors to make up this shit. so the answer is yes.

And it has been mentioned many times what is going on...doesn't mean we win but the idea that it is over is bullshit. These sorts of posts dampen voter turnout and also donations.

[Raven123]

14. Dark money

[Midnight Writer]

33. Dark Money. Unlimited. Anonymous. Unregulated.

[Demsrule86]

17. It is not growing...real clear politics uses the shitty GOP polls in agregates too.

Last edited Sat Nov 5, 2022, 03:04 PM - Edit history (1)

The only legit poll is Marist...

[Polybius]

21. Oh it's growing alright

Emerson is not a shitty poll, and they have him up by 9 today.

[Deminpenn]

36. Emerson has been a consistent outlier

in every poll they've done.

It could be because of this: https://www.aapor.org/Publications-Media/Public-Statements/Understanding-a-credibility-interval%E2%80%9D.aspx

[Demsrule86]

56. And look at Celerity's info...listed as a 'problem' polls.

[Deminpenn]

64. You really have to look at the individual

poll's methodology. To me, the more transparent and detailed that is, the better to evaluate the results objectively. Emerson's isn't that forthcoming on how they weight their data.

Emerson's results have been consistently showing big leads for Rs, but not just Rs, but the craziest Rs. That just doesn't pass the common sense test.

[Sneederbunk]

18. Lack of DNC money.

[LisaL]

19. OH is a now a pretty red state.

But it's going to be a close election. So don't worry about the polls, get out there and vote.

[Snarkoleptic]

20. Polls always seem to tighten in the run-up to election day.

This makes me wonder if it's because the media needs a horse race to hype.
At this stage of the race, my only thought is-

[Polybius]

22. But they're not tightening, they are moving in the opposite direction

Vance has been up by 1 or 2 points for months, and now he is up by 5.

[Demsrule86]

47. They are not...the only decent poll that RCP used was Marist and it is tied...been like that for

months and some Ohio polls show Ryan ahead. Most recently the Ukrainians started commercials about his comment how he does not give a damn about Ukraine...we have a large Ukrainian population and Eastern Europe who hate Putin.

[Kingofalldems]

23. Bad things about Democrats,.

[Jersey Devil]

27. RCP has always had a Repub slant

Just go to their home page and look at the list of articles they link to. After doing that there should be no doubt about where they are coming from.

[rustbeltvoice]

31. there is nothing attractive about Vance as a candidate

The television commercial wars have been won by Ryan. The repuke pacs have snippets from Ryan's commercials, and twisted, and black parodied them; how effective could that be? The other thing is the cookie cutter insults "Taxing"________, here Tim Ryan, just substitute the name of any, and all Democrats.

Tim Ryan has a good one, that must have really ticked off the repukes. He throws footballs at an assembly line of teevees with repuke commercials against him. They nastily parodied that. Repukes do not do humour, they do cruelty, hate, and tasteless insults. Ryan has another commercial with the old Browns quarterback Bernie Kosar. Kosar and Ryan are from the same part of the state. Kosar has publicly supported Repukes in the past.

Recently Liz Cheney has come out to support him. But, the best one is when he alludes to what trumple-thin-skin said about Vance. "Ohio needs an ass kicker, not an ass kisser". A fellow had an essay with the thesis Ryan has emasculated Vance.

What does Vance the vulture capitalist have going for him? Hillbilly Elegy? Very few Ohioans identify with that, and most of those who do are trumpsters.

[inwiththenew]

32. Trump won Ohio by 8% in 2016 and 2020

Along with that the Republican governor DeWine is going to crush the Democratic challenger Nan Whaley. There will be ticket splitting but DeWine is likely to pull Vance over the finish line. I'd like to be wrong but I could see Vance wining this by more than what the polls show.

[W_HAMILTON]

37. "Bad things about Democrats"

[budkin]

41. RCP is NOT RELIABLE

Gunked up with garbage GOP polls!

[JI7]

44. It's Ohio

It turns more right wing each day. Still hoping Tim Ryan can win this.

[Demsrule86]

48. Don't believe it...and I wish the OP would stop this as it makes a difference with donations.

[Polybius]

50. Stop what?

I just asked why. I'm not saying it will make a difference.

[Demsrule86]

57. You know that the polls used by RCP are mostly rightie polls... Marist is the only good one in

the group. Emerson is not reliable this year. Celerity has the data in this OP. You do understand that someone reading this might not donate to Ryan...which we don't need.

[Polybius]

59. So I got my answer then (by you and others)

It's kinda late for donations anyway, isn't it? There's only two full days of campaigning left.

[Demsrule86]

62. I just donated to Fetterman, Warnock and Ryan this morning...it is not too late...GOTV is

going strong...and you posted stuff like this ever since Fetterman won the primary. So it was posted early as well as late. Hey, this is American you can do what you want but when you have polls paid for by dark money, there is no way to tell if it is true. What is the point? We could lose or we could win...But it is not over. I live in Ohio Ryan has a shot...and this OP is particularly egregious in my view since we know that the DNC has not funded the race so donations even now matter.

[Polybius]

63. Funny thing is, of those three, I think one we win, one they win, and one goes to a runoff

And then we win in December.

[BradAllison]

67. In America, we reward trust fund chubs

No matter how great a candidate you are.

JD Vance is a fucking suck ass, and will win because he sucks like most of Ohio.,