Breaking Jon Ralston (Nevada Numbers guru) Prediction Sen Cortez Masto will be re elected

[grantcart]

He also predicts that we lose the Governor's House and lose one of the three House seats.

This is a critical seat. Republicans needed it to get to 51.

If we can flip Wisconsin and PA it looks very good for the Senate.

[Lucinda]

1. ❤️ ✿❧🌿❧✿ ❤️

[Demsrule86]

2. Without Cortez, I don't see a path to the Senate for the GOP.

[LenaBaby61]

4. He's the only one I listen to when somebody talks about Nevada.

I read about his prediction on DailyKoz this afternoon.

Nevada Is Going to Be OK. Good News is Everywhere. Take a Deep Breath, We Got This.

According to Jon Ralston, the premiere authority on all things Nevada, who has had many of us in a panic the last couple of days, a giant mail dump came in last night and Dems crushed the R’s this time, adding a nice healthy padding of early votes to the pile.

Biggest batch of mail since first drop 10 days ago. Dems crush Rs, gain 8K ballots.

Link to tweet

A long line forms as voters wait for the Hamilton Co Board of Elections open. #EarlyVoting @Enquirer pic.twitter.com/wXsWGPlu0U

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 6, 2022
Long lines of early voting are flooding Twitter, people are voting in droves, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Texas...turnout is huge 👇🏻👇🏻

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Per the post:

The good news is everywhere and I for one will not be looking at polls or listening to any pundits. Polls are no longer useful at this point. The election has already begun and as of right now we are winning. We have the enthusiasm, we have the momentum, and we will finish strong. The R's are going to wallow in their hate and misery and eat their own right up to election day. Good. Take a deep breath, we've got this.


https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/6/2134087/-Nevada-Is-Going-to-Be-OK-Good-News-is-Everywhere-Take-a-Deep-Breath-We-Got-This

[grantcart]

6. He works the numbers down to the precinct and compares

The previous years with out bias.

Your excellent post had me wander over and he tweeted out that his final predictions were finished and I kept refreshing.

I don't want to get my hopes up but Ralston is a straight shooter.

[LenaBaby61]

8. I don't want to get my hopes up but Ralston is a straight shooter.

Oh yes ....

He gives it to you straight, no chaser.

[liberalla]

13. Fantastic news! What a relief! I was one of the people "in a panic the last couple of days"

[W_HAMILTON]

5. Same.

[grantcart]

7. Agree. We have many routes to 50 but all of theirs runs thru LV

[Polybius]

9. A path would have to be an incredible longshot, because PA we're winning

I suppose they could win in GA and then upset in either AZ or NH, but it's very unlikely. I'll have my full list of Senate picks later in the day.

[Celerity]

11. If we fail to flip any Red seat, we still must sweep AZ, GA, NH. If we flip PA, we still

must win 2 of those 3 (barring another R to D flip, which would have to come from harder states: WI, NC, OH, FL, IA).

So, yes the Rethugs still have a via path, unfortunately. I am not predicting they do so, btw, simply pointing out the key races.

There is also a complete wild card race we need to defend. WA, which may, may well be closer than the usual 5th state (after NV, NH, AZ, GA) talked about that we need to defend (the never really in doubt CO). I think Murray wins, and hopefully easily does so, but it still needs to be watched, I think more than CO.

[grantcart]

15. We have to flip one

[W_HAMILTON]

3. If the Republicans can't win this Senate seat, odds are they won't be winning back the Senate.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

10. I hope Ralston is correct.

This is the Senate seat that has had me most worried.

[ColinC]

12. Grain of salt

He predicted laxalt would lose in 2014 when he won.

[Rhiannon12866]

14. Sen. Cortez Masto On Jan. 6: 'I'll Never Forget That Day, And I Know Who Was Responsible' - MSNBC

The first Latina to reach the U.S. Senate is in a tight race against an election denier in Nevada. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto tells MSNBC’s Alicia Menendez about her opponent’s “very extreme” agenda and shares why voting is the best “backstop” against the Big Lie. - American Voices - MSNBC - Aired on 11/06/2022.

[Sympthsical]

16. Link to Ralston's prediction

Ralston's reputation and credibility is about as decent as one can get in figuring out a state's election, so it's a decent hook to hang a little bit of hope upon.


https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats

Salient bit:

--U.S. Senate: Red wave or not, candidates and campaigns matter. Adam Laxalt is an abysmal candidate who has lived on his last name for credibility and fundraising since he moved here a decade ago. Anyone with an R after his or her name would be competitive this cycle, and his automaton-like performance, where he can disgorge puerile talking points to thrill the faithful and avoid any serious questioning (a candidate for governor and Senate who never debated!) has been something to behold. Laxalt’s campaign has been desultory and depressing. Cortez Masto is not exactly Rita Moreno on the campaign trail, but she has been disciplined and on message, and her media has been sharp and memorable. Laxalt may win the rurals 2-to-1 or better, but she will hold the Clark base and may even win Washoe. Prediction: Cortez Masto, 47 percent; Laxalt, 45 percent; others, 4 percent; none of the above, 4 percent.

--Governor: Sisolak may be the best fundraiser the state has seen outside of Harry Reid, he has had to weather and be second-guessed about a pandemic no one could have foreseen and he has used the power of the country’s most powerful governor’s office to his advantage during the election to, as P.J. O’Rourke once said, bribe people with their own money. The emergence of the Northshore scandal probably cut him, perhaps enough to cost him the race even though he did his best to distance himself from it. Sisolak has been relentless and ubiquitous. But it probably won’t be enough because people are still mad about COVID restrictions and a governor is the most visible person for people to vent their spleens about all the ills of the world when a president is not on the ballot. Lombardo has not shown himself to be a formidable candidate or especially well-versed on state issues, but his campaign team has been excellent, making him appear gubernatorial even where he was not well known outside of Southern Nevada. I remain dismayed and repelled by the sheriff’s metamorphosis from insisting Trump was not a great president and calling him a “sound” president to a few hours later labeling him a “great” president and then standing next to him at a rally a few days later and fawning over him as the “greatest” president. That was a sad, slow-motion demonstration of what a Republican candidate feels he must do to survive in the Age of Trump. Still, Sisolak only garnered 27 percent in the rurals against Laxalt in 2018; it’s hard to believe he does any better after four years as an incumbent, and he may do worse. Lombardo may slice just enough into the Democratic Clark County base (Why do you think the GOP wanted a southern sheriff so much?) that even if the governor wins Washoe, it may not be enough. Prediction: Lombardo, 48 percent; Sisolak, 47 percent; others 2 percent; none of the above, 3 percent.

--House: In a normal year, all of the Democratic incumbents would be safe — the districts all have substantial Democratic registration edges. This is not a normal year, and polling shows they could all be competitive. I think Rep. Steven Horsford survives because he has a subpar opponent, an election denier who has not run a credible campaign, and he is in the safest district: Horsford, 52 percent; Sam Peters, 48 percent. I know people who think Dina Titus will lose, but despite her anger about her new district being vulnerable, she was worked tirelessly and will hang on against a generic foe: Titus, 51 percent; Mark Robertson, 48 percent; Ken Cavanaugh, 1 percent. Finally, Susie Lee has proved herself a prolific fundraiser, and she has needed every penny in the state’s swing district made slightly less swingy in reapportionment. Lee has had to deal with brutal ads dealing with stock trades that surely drove up her negatives. April Becker, after a failed state Senate bid and brief election denialism, has quietly run a solid, credible race, which may just be enough in this environment: Becker, 51 percent; Lee, 49 percent.

[grantcart]

17. Tks, on my phone and can't cut and paste