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Javaman

(62,531 posts)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 02:20 PM Nov 2022

Canary in the recession coal mine...

I work in the Architecture/construction industry

the company I work for, is huge. Many offices here in the states and several overseas.

I just got word that a few of our US high profile project are going to be put on hold.

over the last 24 years I have been with the company, anytime a number of projects are put on hold, a recession soon follows.

it's gonna happen. How deep and painful has yet to be seen.

I will know more as time goes on and how many more projects are put on hold.

just a heads up.

20 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Canary in the recession coal mine... (Original Post) Javaman Nov 2022 OP
Same industry. We specialize in interiors. We're still busy. But I'm starting to see things slow Carlitos Brigante Nov 2022 #1
How long were they put on hold? weeks, months years??? tnx. mitch96 Nov 2022 #2
Right now it has to do with investor money Javaman Nov 2022 #4
Got it tnx and I was thinking about the past recessions. How long did things slow down? nt mitch96 Nov 2022 #5
The last epic one was in 2008 Javaman Nov 2022 #6
Tnx, if it is a "real" recession that kinda sucks... Hunker down, eh?...nt mitch96 Nov 2022 #7
Does it begin with an H blm Nov 2022 #3
"anytime a number of projects are put on hold, a recession soon follows." BumRushDaShow Nov 2022 #8
Certainly could be a factor but not the reason I was given. Nt Javaman Nov 2022 #9
We haven't been in this type of underlyinig situation BumRushDaShow Nov 2022 #11
The jobs we had put on hold back in 2008 Javaman Nov 2022 #12
What happened in 2007 and 2008 BumRushDaShow Nov 2022 #14
I'm not comparing the causes just the effects. Nt Javaman Nov 2022 #16
Well you know about "cause and effect" BumRushDaShow Nov 2022 #18
I work in a government office and they are scrambling to reconfigure the space everywhere because of Solomon Nov 2022 #10
Yup BumRushDaShow Nov 2022 #13
with the empty office space and work at home movement i am not sure dembotoz Nov 2022 #15
The Fed's trying to 'Greenspan' the economy peppertree Nov 2022 #17
Real estate is on the front end due to interest rates. themaguffin Nov 2022 #19
Of course there's going to be a recession. BannonsLiver Nov 2022 #20

Carlitos Brigante

(26,501 posts)
1. Same industry. We specialize in interiors. We're still busy. But I'm starting to see things slow
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 02:25 PM
Nov 2022

down a little bit. My one, very prominent exterior project that was supposed to be a 'go' this year. has been on hold for months.

mitch96

(13,912 posts)
2. How long were they put on hold? weeks, months years??? tnx.
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 02:31 PM
Nov 2022

I'm curious when the canary will sing again...
m

Javaman

(62,531 posts)
4. Right now it has to do with investor money
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 08:44 PM
Nov 2022

because of inflation on supplies.

Costs are going up because interest rates are effecting the cost of housing

BumRushDaShow

(129,143 posts)
8. "anytime a number of projects are put on hold, a recession soon follows."
Tue Nov 8, 2022, 07:57 AM
Nov 2022

There was an article in the Philly Inquirer recently that might shed a little light on one of issues that might be underlying this and the article focus was on all the empty office park space around the Philly metro area.

The reason? COVID and more people working at home.

There have been a number of both large and medium-sized (white collar) companies that have opted to let their employees work from home either part or full time and thus there has been no need for using all that space in the billion office parks that got created the past couple decades. I.e., the cost of utilities and other amenities like maintaining an employee cafeteria, etc., (let alone reducing the need to pay for a lease) are borne by the employee, and that can provide a major cost savings for that company.

What some of the townships have been doing here is looking at possible zoning changes for conversion of that space to light manufacturing (including pharmaceuticals), fabrication, mixed use, and/or residential.

Commercial Real Estate
Suburban office parks now have millions of square feet of new vacant offices — enough to fill more than 2 Comcast Centers

As employees go remote, suburban Philly office buildings could be repurposed or torn down. Companies are “getting rid of overhead,” said one township manager.


by Bob Fernandez
Updated Nov 1, 2022

When real estate investors Zach Moore and Tony Grelli toured the hushed offices of the former 1,000-employee Nationwide insurance complex in Harleysville last month, lights turned on as they passed rows of empty desks. Moore gestured to some of the $2 million of abandoned office furniture, including hundreds of ergonomic chairs (retail value $800 each) and blond-wood desks. Stacks of colorful trash receptacles lined courtyard windows.

He and Grelli can’t sell the stuff because a glut of used office furniture after COVID-19 has saturated the resale market. They’ll pay a hauler $150,000 to take it away. “One day, 50 years from now,” Moore said later, “I will tell people you could buy an office building for the same price as an old manufacturing building because there was a global pandemic that sent everyone home, and they won’t believe it.”

The Nationwide complex closed in 2020, most of its employees permanently assigned to work remotely after the COVID lockdown. Moore and Grelli closed a deal last week to buy the building, with ambitious plans to revitalize the space.

“There has been recognition that the old way of working is going to change.”
Scott Miller, executive vice president at CBRE


Almost a quarter of the vast Pennsylvania suburban office market is vacant, says the commercial real estate firm CBRE, with more than one million square feet in the Pennsylvania suburbs emptied this year so far. Since early 2020, the amount of vacated space totals three million square feet — the equivalent of more than two Comcast Center towers. Acres of asphalt make up much of today’s suburban scenery, as parking lots sit empty.

(snip)

https://www.inquirer.com/real-estate/commercial/office-vacancy-rate-philadelphia-suburbs-return-to-work-remote-20221101.html

No paywall


In this case, the employment situation for the sectors that use these buildings has not changed (i.e., the businesses are still viable and vibrant). The difference is where they are housed during the work day and that has an effect on any surrounding small businesses (e.g., restaurants/bars/food trucks/convenience stores/take-outs, dry cleaners, pharmacies, small grocery stores, etc) that relied on the office park employee foot traffic.

The article basically goes on to say that some in the construction/renovation industry are pivoting to taking advantage of repurposing that space for other uses - e.g., if not for residential, for distribution or even "light industrial" use.

It's interesting that for many years, this was the subject broached in sci-fi and by futurists. But the catalyst of a pandemic seems to have set that once far-off vision, in motion.

BumRushDaShow

(129,143 posts)
11. We haven't been in this type of underlyinig situation
Tue Nov 8, 2022, 08:44 AM
Nov 2022

in over a century (global pandemic, war, and extreme weather events).

Just like the economic analysts have been swinging and missing with the forecasts for employment, gdp, and even the value of the dollar the past almost 2 years, I think the business-speak of being "agile", seems to underscore how it's nothing but a buzzword for some of the older institutions and not really a strategy being taken to heart.

Some have already indicated that we have been or are currently in a "technical" recession (in terms of gdp) and this doesn't preclude a retrenchment in the future. But there is still some luddite thinking going on so it remains to seen how it pans out.

Javaman

(62,531 posts)
12. The jobs we had put on hold back in 2008
Tue Nov 8, 2022, 08:59 AM
Nov 2022

Was far more extreme, like falling off a cliff

This one is striking me like the recession in the early 2000s. Slowly a bunch of jobs being put on hold, just a gradual thing. And before you know it, lay offs begin.

The pandemic recession was a different animal all together. That’s why I haven’t referred to it. We had jobs on hold but it was also, ironically, a very busy time for me. While the jobs stopped, per se, design kept going. That one doesn’t really have a relatable situation to this one

BumRushDaShow

(129,143 posts)
14. What happened in 2007 and 2008
Tue Nov 8, 2022, 09:31 AM
Nov 2022

is NOT the same as what has happened the past almost 3 years.

That 2008 collapse was similar to those in the past where, for example, you had a hedge funds/derivatives/junk bonds mess (e.g., 1987 market crash), a "tech" crash (the late '90s/early 2000s "dot-com" bubble), and then what you are referencing, what was basically a housing bubble that exploded all over the markets (e.g., people buying bundles of pieces of mortgages and other idiocies).

After 2008, circuit breakers and safety nets in terms of "stress tests" were implemented to blunt a financial shock. But NONE of that took into account that you would have a pandemic that closed all but "essential" businesses, cut supplies, and killed over 1 million Americans, many of them who were still working. At the same time you had a whole demographic of workers who were eligible to retire years before and had put it off, until the pandemic hit. Some are trickling back in but the rest are not and are either moving to a less demanding job or are leaving the workforce altogether. Meanwhile the younger demographic hasn't been trained as replacements (although this has been reluctantly happening now).

I have posted multiple times (when I do the monthly UE threads in LBN) that there is NO (modern) "analog" to what we are experiencing that would provide a be-all end-all foreknowledge of what they should do and the end result.

BumRushDaShow

(129,143 posts)
18. Well you know about "cause and effect"
Tue Nov 8, 2022, 10:32 AM
Nov 2022

As a scientist by training, I know not all similar "effects" (observations) can be attributed to the same (or similar) causes and those "effects" might actually be cosmetic and temporary rather than systemic and entrenched.

I.e., the variables here are uncommon and not easily reproducible.

I really think that this period we are going through is going to be studied long and hard because of the unique circumstances.

Solomon

(12,311 posts)
10. I work in a government office and they are scrambling to reconfigure the space everywhere because of
Tue Nov 8, 2022, 08:23 AM
Nov 2022

teleworking due to the pandemic. They are even talking about doing the "hotel" thing where employees would share the same space by coming in on different days. Our CEO is lamenting the change in the city economy because of teleworking. Not having employees' money in town is not only affecting businesses, but the value of commercial properties, etc.

They want us back in the office but were warned they would lose too many valuable employees at the same time, and will experience a problem hiring new people.

BumRushDaShow

(129,143 posts)
13. Yup
Tue Nov 8, 2022, 09:04 AM
Nov 2022

Before I retired from the federal government, I know my collegues down in HQ in the D.C. metro area had instituted "hoteling", coming into swing space a couple times a week with their laptops.

With the pandemic, that started changing and people were doing full work at home. Of course this has caused all the "touchy-feely-must-see-my-employees-in-person-or-i-collapse" bosses to go into a tizzy. But I think whether they like it or not, by having an available and robust network, the days of this type of "office space" is shifting in a major way.

I know I have heard from some of my former buddies still there at my own government building and they have said it is literally deserted there now (at least for some of the branches) and they only come in to update their PIV cards or maybe pick up a GOV or some other stuff (look at an industry file, etc). When these offices got rid of the secretarial pools years ago and had employees doing their own "typing" (word processor programs) it precluded the need for endless killing of tree printouts and cross-out edits. It's all done electronically and collaboratively.

dembotoz

(16,808 posts)
15. with the empty office space and work at home movement i am not sure
Tue Nov 8, 2022, 10:04 AM
Nov 2022

it is a good economic indicator this time

With a good internet pipe and decent software tons of office work can be done off premise.

A company can ramp up or shut down and the parking lots looks pretty much the same.

As we transition to a more post covid(i hope) environment, traditional wisdom is going to be wacky for a while.



peppertree

(21,639 posts)
17. The Fed's trying to 'Greenspan' the economy
Tue Nov 8, 2022, 10:09 AM
Nov 2022

To provoke a recession just in time for these midterms, and of course the '23/'24 campaign season - just as they did (or tried to) against Gore.

As you'll recall, it was one hike after another - and with practically no inflation.

But growth was too "exuberant" - and we couldn't very well have that under a Dem incumbent, could we.

BannonsLiver

(16,398 posts)
20. Of course there's going to be a recession.
Tue Nov 8, 2022, 11:54 AM
Nov 2022

Not exactly breaking news. The recession drumbeat has been beating for months if not a year or longer. The media discusses it constantly, particularly in the political context and as it relates to this election.

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