General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCanary in the recession coal mine...
I work in the Architecture/construction industry
the company I work for, is huge. Many offices here in the states and several overseas.
I just got word that a few of our US high profile project are going to be put on hold.
over the last 24 years I have been with the company, anytime a number of projects are put on hold, a recession soon follows.
it's gonna happen. How deep and painful has yet to be seen.
I will know more as time goes on and how many more projects are put on hold.
just a heads up.
Carlitos Brigante
(26,501 posts)down a little bit. My one, very prominent exterior project that was supposed to be a 'go' this year. has been on hold for months.
mitch96
(13,912 posts)I'm curious when the canary will sing again...
m
Javaman
(62,531 posts)because of inflation on supplies.
Costs are going up because interest rates are effecting the cost of housing
mitch96
(13,912 posts)Javaman
(62,531 posts)2-3 years?
mitch96
(13,912 posts)blm
(113,069 posts)and end with an S?
BumRushDaShow
(129,143 posts)There was an article in the Philly Inquirer recently that might shed a little light on one of issues that might be underlying this and the article focus was on all the empty office park space around the Philly metro area.
The reason? COVID and more people working at home.
There have been a number of both large and medium-sized (white collar) companies that have opted to let their employees work from home either part or full time and thus there has been no need for using all that space in the billion office parks that got created the past couple decades. I.e., the cost of utilities and other amenities like maintaining an employee cafeteria, etc., (let alone reducing the need to pay for a lease) are borne by the employee, and that can provide a major cost savings for that company.
What some of the townships have been doing here is looking at possible zoning changes for conversion of that space to light manufacturing (including pharmaceuticals), fabrication, mixed use, and/or residential.
Suburban office parks now have millions of square feet of new vacant offices enough to fill more than 2 Comcast Centers
As employees go remote, suburban Philly office buildings could be repurposed or torn down. Companies are getting rid of overhead, said one township manager.
by Bob Fernandez
Updated Nov 1, 2022
When real estate investors Zach Moore and Tony Grelli toured the hushed offices of the former 1,000-employee Nationwide insurance complex in Harleysville last month, lights turned on as they passed rows of empty desks. Moore gestured to some of the $2 million of abandoned office furniture, including hundreds of ergonomic chairs (retail value $800 each) and blond-wood desks. Stacks of colorful trash receptacles lined courtyard windows.
He and Grelli cant sell the stuff because a glut of used office furniture after COVID-19 has saturated the resale market. Theyll pay a hauler $150,000 to take it away. One day, 50 years from now, Moore said later, I will tell people you could buy an office building for the same price as an old manufacturing building because there was a global pandemic that sent everyone home, and they wont believe it.
The Nationwide complex closed in 2020, most of its employees permanently assigned to work remotely after the COVID lockdown. Moore and Grelli closed a deal last week to buy the building, with ambitious plans to revitalize the space.
There has been recognition that the old way of working is going to change.
Scott Miller, executive vice president at CBRE
Almost a quarter of the vast Pennsylvania suburban office market is vacant, says the commercial real estate firm CBRE, with more than one million square feet in the Pennsylvania suburbs emptied this year so far. Since early 2020, the amount of vacated space totals three million square feet the equivalent of more than two Comcast Center towers. Acres of asphalt make up much of todays suburban scenery, as parking lots sit empty.
(snip)
https://www.inquirer.com/real-estate/commercial/office-vacancy-rate-philadelphia-suburbs-return-to-work-remote-20221101.html
No paywall
In this case, the employment situation for the sectors that use these buildings has not changed (i.e., the businesses are still viable and vibrant). The difference is where they are housed during the work day and that has an effect on any surrounding small businesses (e.g., restaurants/bars/food trucks/convenience stores/take-outs, dry cleaners, pharmacies, small grocery stores, etc) that relied on the office park employee foot traffic.
The article basically goes on to say that some in the construction/renovation industry are pivoting to taking advantage of repurposing that space for other uses - e.g., if not for residential, for distribution or even "light industrial" use.
It's interesting that for many years, this was the subject broached in sci-fi and by futurists. But the catalyst of a pandemic seems to have set that once far-off vision, in motion.
Javaman
(62,531 posts)BumRushDaShow
(129,143 posts)in over a century (global pandemic, war, and extreme weather events).
Just like the economic analysts have been swinging and missing with the forecasts for employment, gdp, and even the value of the dollar the past almost 2 years, I think the business-speak of being "agile", seems to underscore how it's nothing but a buzzword for some of the older institutions and not really a strategy being taken to heart.
Some have already indicated that we have been or are currently in a "technical" recession (in terms of gdp) and this doesn't preclude a retrenchment in the future. But there is still some luddite thinking going on so it remains to seen how it pans out.
Javaman
(62,531 posts)Was far more extreme, like falling off a cliff
This one is striking me like the recession in the early 2000s. Slowly a bunch of jobs being put on hold, just a gradual thing. And before you know it, lay offs begin.
The pandemic recession was a different animal all together. Thats why I havent referred to it. We had jobs on hold but it was also, ironically, a very busy time for me. While the jobs stopped, per se, design kept going. That one doesnt really have a relatable situation to this one
BumRushDaShow
(129,143 posts)is NOT the same as what has happened the past almost 3 years.
That 2008 collapse was similar to those in the past where, for example, you had a hedge funds/derivatives/junk bonds mess (e.g., 1987 market crash), a "tech" crash (the late '90s/early 2000s "dot-com" bubble), and then what you are referencing, what was basically a housing bubble that exploded all over the markets (e.g., people buying bundles of pieces of mortgages and other idiocies).
After 2008, circuit breakers and safety nets in terms of "stress tests" were implemented to blunt a financial shock. But NONE of that took into account that you would have a pandemic that closed all but "essential" businesses, cut supplies, and killed over 1 million Americans, many of them who were still working. At the same time you had a whole demographic of workers who were eligible to retire years before and had put it off, until the pandemic hit. Some are trickling back in but the rest are not and are either moving to a less demanding job or are leaving the workforce altogether. Meanwhile the younger demographic hasn't been trained as replacements (although this has been reluctantly happening now).
I have posted multiple times (when I do the monthly UE threads in LBN) that there is NO (modern) "analog" to what we are experiencing that would provide a be-all end-all foreknowledge of what they should do and the end result.
Javaman
(62,531 posts)BumRushDaShow
(129,143 posts)As a scientist by training, I know not all similar "effects" (observations) can be attributed to the same (or similar) causes and those "effects" might actually be cosmetic and temporary rather than systemic and entrenched.
I.e., the variables here are uncommon and not easily reproducible.
I really think that this period we are going through is going to be studied long and hard because of the unique circumstances.
Solomon
(12,311 posts)teleworking due to the pandemic. They are even talking about doing the "hotel" thing where employees would share the same space by coming in on different days. Our CEO is lamenting the change in the city economy because of teleworking. Not having employees' money in town is not only affecting businesses, but the value of commercial properties, etc.
They want us back in the office but were warned they would lose too many valuable employees at the same time, and will experience a problem hiring new people.
BumRushDaShow
(129,143 posts)Before I retired from the federal government, I know my collegues down in HQ in the D.C. metro area had instituted "hoteling", coming into swing space a couple times a week with their laptops.
With the pandemic, that started changing and people were doing full work at home. Of course this has caused all the "touchy-feely-must-see-my-employees-in-person-or-i-collapse" bosses to go into a tizzy. But I think whether they like it or not, by having an available and robust network, the days of this type of "office space" is shifting in a major way.
I know I have heard from some of my former buddies still there at my own government building and they have said it is literally deserted there now (at least for some of the branches) and they only come in to update their PIV cards or maybe pick up a GOV or some other stuff (look at an industry file, etc). When these offices got rid of the secretarial pools years ago and had employees doing their own "typing" (word processor programs) it precluded the need for endless killing of tree printouts and cross-out edits. It's all done electronically and collaboratively.
dembotoz
(16,808 posts)it is a good economic indicator this time
With a good internet pipe and decent software tons of office work can be done off premise.
A company can ramp up or shut down and the parking lots looks pretty much the same.
As we transition to a more post covid(i hope) environment, traditional wisdom is going to be wacky for a while.
peppertree
(21,639 posts)To provoke a recession just in time for these midterms, and of course the '23/'24 campaign season - just as they did (or tried to) against Gore.
As you'll recall, it was one hike after another - and with practically no inflation.
But growth was too "exuberant" - and we couldn't very well have that under a Dem incumbent, could we.
themaguffin
(3,826 posts)BannonsLiver
(16,398 posts)Not exactly breaking news. The recession drumbeat has been beating for months if not a year or longer. The media discusses it constantly, particularly in the political context and as it relates to this election.