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Stallion

(6,476 posts) Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:40 AM Nov 2022

Nate Silver: Fetterman to Win by 4%

which would be a 6% miss by 538

NATE SILVER
NOV. 9, 1:23 AM
The New York Times needle projects that Fetterman is eventually going to win by around 4 points. So while it’s not a catastrophically bad polling error if your survey had Oz winning by 1 or 2 points, as a lot of GOP-leaning firms did, you are winding up with a 5- or 6-point miss, which is basically in “Hillary in Wisconsin” territory

4 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Nate Silver: Fetterman to Win by 4% (Original Post) Stallion Nov 2022 OP

ugh jcgoldie Nov 2022 #1

Yeah, but did that win by Oz include the later junk polls which they of all people halfulglas Nov 2022 #2

Nate and 538 are trash ...... LenaBaby61 Nov 2022 #3

I think early voting worked out for him Sympthsical Nov 2022 #4

jcgoldie

(11,636 posts)

1. ugh

Reply to Stallion (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:42 AM

Nov 2022

As excited as I am with Fetterman's victory can't pretend that last line doesnt still hurt.

halfulglas

(1,654 posts)

2. Yeah, but did that win by Oz include the later junk polls which they of all people

Reply to Stallion (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:43 AM

Nov 2022

Should have known they were just that - junk, and they should have known it was to scare Dems not to be taken seriously by supposed professionals.

LenaBaby61

(6,976 posts)

3. Nate and 538 are trash ......

Reply to Stallion (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:44 AM

Nov 2022

Sympthsical

(9,091 posts)

4. I think early voting worked out for him

Reply to Stallion (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 02:44 AM

Nov 2022

I think polls shifted after the debate, but people had already voted and gave him a better margin than if everyone had to vote on Election Day.

I had him winning by 2-3%, so I am awesome. Someone hire me to talk about polls on Twitter all day!

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