The eye test with yard signs told me that Fetterman and Shapiro were going to win.
An incomplete summary of what I posted on DU before the election:
1) I kept saying that I had never seen so many signs for Democratic candidates in red areas of western Pennsylvania as I saw this year. The eye test told me Fetterman and Shapiro were going to do well. If not for the stroke, Fetterman wins by at last 5 points (currently 3ish).
2) The missing Trump voter showed up in the results. Or you might say didn't show up.
Another point I kept making on DU was how those who had Trump signs (and some of those having other GOP signs) in 2016 and 2020 didn't have any signs this year. They might have voted for Trump and other Republicans as a residual effect but they didn't vote this year because Trump was not on the ballot nor in office.
Two other Trump-related factors played a role in the missing Trump voter: COVID and 1/6. The difference between Republican and Democratic COVID deaths is not necessarily that significant in terms of the total US population but take tens of thousands of hardcore supporters out of the population who are now dead and that has a ripple effect aside from their missing votes. Although it currently numbers 928, many arrested 1/6ers, who are hardcore Trump supporters, are either in jail, on probation, waiting for sentencing, and/or waiting for trial. They might have been not able to vote due to incarceration or they just want to keep their head down and not draw attention to themselves. 1/6ers who have yet to be arrested might feel the same way in knowing that their chances to be arrested drastically increase if they continue to draw attention to themselves by opening campaigning for Republicans. This number might not be that large, but it has residual effects.
3) The Republican leaning polls were obvious BS from the get go.
4) Finally, the media and pundits who kept saying since November 2020 the GOP was going to sweep this year because that is what normally happens during midterms could never admit that might not be the case, especially with the abortion issue looming so large. They kept trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy instead of actually paying attention to what was happening on the ground. The pundits should have declared all bets off once the Dobbs decision came down but they either couldn't or didn't vacillate from their predictions.
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