Why is Ron Johnson the projected winner with 94% of vote in and Barnes only .7 behind?

[Samrob]

[ColinC]

1. Any urban/blue areas that favor Barnes left out are probably cancelled by rural votes

…that are remaining. He might narrow the margin to within half a point or so at best.

[catbyte]

2. I imagine it's because the precincts still left to report are GQP strongholds.

[Claustrum]

3. MSNBC said they waited till all of the votes in big blue counties counted to make sure

Barnes can't catch up and then they called it.

[RedSpartan]

4. Losing this race was political malpractice, plain and simple.

[Tetrachloride]

9. completely agree. The chips have not yet fallen

where they may.

[bottomofthehill]

11. What was the malpractice. Where did we go wrong.

From the exit polls
Barnes lost the suburbs 53/46
Barnes lost independent men. 53/46
Barnes lost white women 53/47
Barnes lost Independents. 51/48

[brooklynite]

19. There were other primary choices...

[budkin]

17. Absolutely. Barnes ran a terrible campaign

I gave him money a few times but it wasn't looking good.

[bottomofthehill]

20. He was a shitty candidate but he won the primary going away

He was the horse we had to ride.

[sunnybrook]

5. Milwaukee and Madison In

I heard over an hour ago a reporter on MSNBC that he had heard from clerks from both Milwaukee and Dane Counties (which includes Madison) that both areas had in 100% of the votes in. Minutes later the networks called the race. I assume that is why. Believe me, I am deeply disappointed. I live in Wisconsin.

[calguy]

6. Because they know what they're doing.

[RockRaven]

7. The less vote remaining, the larger the margin one needs to win those votes by to catch up.

Depending on where the uncounted votes are from, the needed margin might be unfeasible.

If I were down 1% (50.5 to 49.5) with 90% of the votes counted, I would need to win the outstanding 10% of the votes 54.5 to 45.5 just to tie.

If I were down 1% (50.5 to 49.5) with 95% of the votes counted, I would need to win the outstanding 5% of the votes 59.5 to 40.5 just to tie.

If I were down 1% (50.5 to 49.5) with 99% of the votes counted, I would need to win the outstanding 1% of the votes 99.5 to 0.5 just to tie.


In a two person race, with 94% counted (6% outstanding) and the leader ahead by 0.7 (i.e. 50.35 to 49.65), the trailing party would need to win the outstanding votes by approx 55.5 to 44.5 get even.

[Emile]

8. Has Barnes conceded?

[Celerity]

14. Barnes concedes as Johnson claims Senate win

https://www.wsaw.com/2022/11/09/republican-johnson-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-barnes-wisconsin/

[Blue Owl]

10. I'll take Russia for $1200, Alex

[bdamomma]

12. I really wanted

to see Mandela Barnes win over that lying POS Johnson.

[moniss]

13. It was going to be difficult

from the very beginning to overcome the racism in Wisconsin. People outside of Wisconsin who aren't that familiar with us currently and our history have an incorrect perception of us. Once you are outside of Milwaukee and Dane counties this state is and always has been deeply racist.

[yourout]

15. Amen...there are sections of the state that are like something out of Deliverence.

It's like you walked into pre-civil war Georgia.

[diva77]

18. "ERIC" might have something to do with it --

https://gregpalast.podbean.com/e/the-trouble-with-eric/

The idea of ERIC was to expand voter registration. If you moved, they would follow you and say, hey, would you like to register in your new state? That's very good. That's very progressive. In fact, a bunch of liberals from the Pew Trust and Brennan Center came up with it. But now a number of Republican Secretaries of State have taken it over and inverted it. Instead of asking people, would you like to register, they're using the ERIC lists, which are often wrong, to remove voters by the millions, basically creating a Crosscheck replacement.

I did an investigation for Black Voters Matter in Wisconsin, where Joe Biden’s victory margin was only 20,000 votes in 2020. Before the election, they were going to remove 130,000 voters from the rolls. We went through the ERIC-generated lists and found just short of 40,000 people had never moved — a minimum 25.8% error rate. Almost every person at risk in Milwaukee was in a black census district, while those in Madison were mostly students — their only crime was either being a student or voting while Black.

Biden would've lost Wisconsin if the ERIC purge was allowed to go through. In 2020, after presenting our evidence in a report with Black Voters Matter, we managed to get the Wisconsin Supreme Court to block the Wisconsin purge, but now ERIC’s back and active in more states than ever!

Bold type added for emphasis.

========
From Wisconsin elections website -- you can read more about ERIC

https://elections.wi.gov/memo/2022-eric-movers-review-process-quarter-3

2022 ERIC Movers Review Process - Quarter 3
Tuesday, September 27, 2022

[SlimJimmy]

16. The same thing happened in Georgia.

With 10,000 votes outstanding, they added all 10k to both candidates and neither could get to 50%. I'm sure they did the same type of math in WI.