Nevada Senate Race Remains Very Close

[applegrove]

Nevada Senate Race Remains Very Close

November 9, 2022 at 1:26 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 62 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2022/11/09/nevada-senate-race-remains-very-close/

"SNIP.......

“The Nevada Senate race is still really close, with Republican candidate Adam Laxalt holding between a 2- and 3-point lead over Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto,” FiveThirtyEight reports.

“But it looks like there are more Democratic votes left to be counted than Republican ones — especially regarding mail-in ballots, which Nevada accepts as long as they were postmarked by Election Day and arrive by Nov. 12.”

Jon Ralston does the math and concludes Cortez Masto has a shot at winning.

.......SNIP"

[emulatorloo]

1. Here's a direct link to Ralston's reporting. Worth reading.

I appreciate that Goddard included a link.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

[emulatorloo]

3. Ha ha here:

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

[OLDMDDEM]

4. MSNBC

showed Laxalt behind by 22,000 votes within the last 20 minutes. 3:10PM EST

[joshcryer]

7. Where are you seeing that?

Don't think any results were posted yet today from today's tabulation.

[OLDMDDEM]

9. MSNBC showed it twice.

Laxalt was behind.

[kansasobama]

11. I don't see it

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/nevada-senate-results?icid=election_usmap

[OLDMDDEM]

12. I did see it. I ran into the kitchen to tell my wife.

[honest.abe]

14. The official NV SOS website still has CCM behind 23,000 votes

https://silverstateelection.nv.gov/USSenate/

No change since last night I believe.

[OLDMDDEM]

16. I know I saw it but will cede to all of you so there isn't an argument about it.

[honest.abe]

17. I believe you. Maybe they flipped the numbers by mistake.

[OLDMDDEM]

20. Thank you

Your thought could be right.

[inthewind21]

32. Maybe

You saw a particular county and not the state wide#

[OLDMDDEM]

41. No. it was statewide.

[Polybius]

5. Jon Ralston's Twitter has been very active today

From 6 minutes ago:

Link to tweet

[mcar]

6. I think Cortez Masto will pull this off

Seems like most of the votes yet to be counted are from Clark County, which is very Dem.

[applegrove]

8. Pull this "off". Not "out".

[mcar]

18. Oops

fixed

[kansasobama]

10. It is so critical we win Nevada

At the very least, if NV and AZ goes to Dems, we can work on getting 51 after Georgia runoff and blunt Manchin influence a little bit. Wish we had 52.

[kentuck]

15. I think Dems will win the Senate seat in NV, just as Biden came back in 2020.

I would be surprised if the mail ballots did not go big for the Dems.

[budkin]

13. Ralston predicted CCM would pull it out

And it looks like there are enough votes outstanding to do that.

[GreenWave]

25. Maybe you should see post #8 and redo the title.

[budkin]

37. I always thought the expression came from

Pulling a rabbit out of a hat, LOL.

[GreenWave]

38. I don't have a problem with it either.

But someone did.

[Polybius]

26. He's been going back and forth all night

From 1:38 PM:

Link to tweet

[kansasobama]

19. I watched his strem just now and he said it is not promising

@TheNVIndy

[honest.abe]

22. Ralston?

He seemed somewhat optimistic earlier today.

[kansasobama]

23. Not anymore looks like

Dang!

[honest.abe]

24. So it's up to GA.

Ugh.

[kansasobama]

27. And that stupid Manchin holding us to ransom

[thucythucy]

21. I can understand the stipulation that mail in votes be in by Nov. 12

else the counting would be delayed, but given all the BS we've seen from the post office, it irks me that whether or not a person's vote--cast in time and in a perfectly legal manner--might not count because of some USPO screwup. Most expecially given the current MAGA infected climate, and who it is still in charge of the Post Office.

[kansasobama]

28. Here is what it shows

CCM losing by 22,595. Clark County has 100,000 votes left to be counted (CCM area) but Washoe has 70,000 votes (Laxalt area).
CCM has to reduce Laxalt margin in Washoe. Otherwise, not sure. In theory, 100% Clark County going to CCM and 100% of rest of Washoe going to Laxalt, CCM may win. But it is never that simple. Laxalt will get more votes in Clark County than CCM getting votes in Washoe.

[Polybius]

29. Jon Ralston Tweet:

Link to tweet

[honest.abe]

30. Does that mean he thinks CCM will prevail?

[Polybius]

31. I have no idea, but it was pretty cryptic

I've been following him all day. I wish AZ had someone like him.

[inthewind21]

33. It means

exactly what is says. Everyone wants it RIGHT NOW. They aren't going to get it RIGHT NOW. Because there is an unknown amount of mail in ballots still to be counted from an unknown number of counties. Translation, until 11/12 comes and goes you can't predict what hasn't even come in yet. But hey, how's that predicted red wave going?

[Polybius]

34. Yes, but he may have thrown us a little hint

He said "crying of fraud" in that Tweet. Our side doesn't do that, so hmm...

[honest.abe]

36. Yeah I saw that too.

Maybe a clue.

[honest.abe]

35. Well he has in the past given some insight into what the numbers mean based on his experience.

Not just general information about when the votes are coming in.

[Polybius]

39. I found something interesting that I'm sure Ralston saw

Scroll down to where it says "Where votes have been reported and where votes remain," and hover your mouse over the map.

The only Blue area left is Clark County. 80% of their vote is already in, and so far it ran only 51-46 Democratic. The remaining votes are all in Republican strongholds. Unless of course, I'm reading something wrong?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-nevada-us-senate.html

[standingtall]

40. Looks like the rest of the State has very very low populatin

other than Washoe County. So that 5% spread may be bigger than you think especially if there is still mail in ballots to be counted that favors Democrats as Ralston says and 20% more still to come from Vegas.