Georgia Senate numbers getting weird

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

So earlier this morning I looked at the site below and Warnock was at 49.3 with 36,000 outstanding ballots, then about an hour ago Warnock was at 49.5 with 39000 outstanding votes….I am watching MSNBC now and they show Warnock now at 49.6, so I went back to the site and it shows him at 49.6 and there are now even more outstanding votes 44,000….so Warnock’s % is going up and the number of votes left to count is also going up….hell, I know they have already called a runoff I think he can get to 50.1%

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/georgia-senate-results?icid=election_statenav

[Raven123]

1. Don't forget the third candidate in your calculations

[triron]

2. Seems if he does, then no runoff.

[Claustrum]

3. Are they updating the total number based on the mail in ballot received daily?

I am sure most state still allows ballots received from oversea to keep counting. Some allows ballots postmarked on or before election day.

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

5. Don't know

I just know that the number of outstanding ballots are going up

[Mz Pip]

4. Interesting

If he hits 50% wouldn’t the Republicans demand a recount?

Not sure how all that works.

Maybe there just aren’t enough outstanding votes votes to put Warnock at 50%.

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

7. That is what they said and why they said it will be a runoff

Because there wasn’t a enough outstanding ballots left, but the number has went up from 36,000 this morning to 44,000 now…

[Hassin Bin Sober]

11. 3.8 million votes. Warnock needs .4%

Unless I’m doing the math wrong that’s more than 150,000

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

12. Thanks

I didn’t feel like doing the math…lol

[Hassin Bin Sober]

24. Well I'm not much help. Lol

[Hugh_Lebowski]

19. No it's 15,200 based on the numbers you gave

3,800,000 * .004 = 15,200

But that has to be an ADVANTAGE, not a raw vote count.

So out of 44K that'd require just over a 2-1 advantage he'd need in the outstanding ones.

Without a compelling reason to think he's heavily favored in the outstanding set of 44K ... seems pretty unlikely.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

23. Oops. That's what I get for (wrongly) using a calculator.

[Johnny2X2X]

6. It's always estimates.

If he did get to 50%, they will call off the runoff, pending a recount of course.

[agingdem]

9. recounts never favor the loser..

Warnock will pick up votes if there's a runoff..

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

10. Ossoff benefited from the runoff

Purdue best him in the initial count and almost had 50%.

[TheBlackAdder]

8. Just need 50% and one vote.

[ornotna]

15. Yep, 50% plus one vote

is all it takes. Fingers crossed.

[honest.abe]

13. Back of envelope calc Warnock needs 38,000 of the remaining 44,000 votes to get to 50%.

So very unlikely. Its is weird though the number outstanding is changing.

[ColinC]

16. Seeing this happen in other races too

I wonder what it is. Provisional ballots maybe? More Same day mail arriving?

[honest.abe]

22. These are just estimates.

They just dont know for sure how many more ballots are outstanding. So it gets adjusted as the real number becomes more clear.

Yes, it is probably ballots arriving in the mail. As well as more accurate counts of ballots dropped off.

[ColinC]

25. That makes sense. Thanks!

[triron]

17. 1% of 4 million is 40k. Warnock only needs 0.4%.

[honest.abe]

21. I did the calc again in more detail..

Warnock: 1948414
Walker: 1899672
Oliver: 81187
Writeins: 1588
Total votes processed: 3930861

Votes remaining: 44139
Total all votes: 3975000

50% of total: 1987500

Votes Warnock needs to get to 50%: 1987500 - 1948414 = 39086

Just not likely to happen.

However, this depends on the actual total remaining. 44139 is estimated. If there are alot more then that changes things.

[lees1975]

27. Looking at the map, the counties with the most remaining votes are

Dekalb, estimated 9% where Warnock won 2 to 1
Fulton, Estimated 6% where Warnock won 3 to 1
Gwinnett, estimated 6% where warnock won 55-45
Clayton, estimated 3% where Warnock won almost 2 to 1.

Might be doable.

[honest.abe]

28. According to my calculations Warnock would need 88% of the remaining votes.

39086 / 44139 = 88.5%

Im sorry but that is not going to happen.

[ColinC]

14. Oh wow

Watch it get to 49.9 after all votes are counted. That would be our luck!


Also what are the chances of a recount??

[Jersey Devil]

18. Oliver has 2.1% with 81,187 votes so

81,087/2.1= 38,613 which is 1%

So Warnock would need about less than half of that, or about 19,000 votes to get to 50%. OK, math is not my strong suit, so where am I wrong?

[triron]

29. I think you need to add in almost 1/2 of the votes outstanding

Because 0.4% (of the total) is what Warnock needs to GAIN.

[Cattledog]

20. Some ballots can be received as late as Monday the 14th