3 'IFS' here, but if we end up with 51 Senate seats (likely IMHO) and 218 House seats (HARD), and if

[Celerity]

Manchin and/or Sinema agree to a ONE OFF filibuster exception for reproductive rights codification (flip a coin on that one maybe, it is a damn shame we lost WI, as that would have negated both Coal and Curtsy), will Henry Cuellar (he won the general easily, which make me think Cisneros would have also won had she beat him in that ultra close primary), a rabid forced birther who votes that way for years, fuck us hard and block the bill in the House?

Bonus question:

Are there ANY pro choice House Rethugs who would vote with us?

[blm]

1. Murkowski

She only won with Democratic votes via Ranked Choice. But, that’s the Senate.

[Celerity]

2. Yes, that would be a way to go around BOTH Sinema and Manchin, but I still wonder about Cuellar

[Blaukraut]

3. I just hope those two weasels won't switch parties n/t

[Orrex]

9. If they switch parties, then they forfeit the spotlight

The love nothing more than attention and the power of the "will they/won't they" drama every time a vote comes up.

The last thing they want is to disappear into the anonymity of a Republikkkan majority.

[Mr.Bill]

4. Unfortunately,

we will most likely have the same shit show in the Senate that we've had for the last two years.

But it could be worse.

[TexasTowelie]

5. I disagree with you whether Cisneros would have won the election if she was the nominee.

The adjacent congressional district (CD-15) flipped from blue to red and the Democrat received support from Justice Democrats after she won the nomination. FWIW, Bernie and Cisneros were at a rally in McAllen for Michelle Vallejo in the week prior to the election in CD-15 and their support wasn't enough to get Michelle Vallejo elected.

If Cisneros won the nomination in CD-28, I suspect that some of Cuellar's supporters would have not voted for her in the general election. Ultimately, it was Cuellar's support from the business community and his tenure in Congress that clinched the victory for him. Cisneros did not have that support and her occupation as an immigrant rights attorney is not popular in South Texas. At this point, Cisneros has lost three elections (2020 primary, 2022 primary, and 2022 runoff) -- she should take those results as indicators to concentrate on her job as an attorney and end a campaign that ran over two years (and still continues if you read her bitter concession to Cuellar).

Meanwhile, I'm disheartened that the congressional district where I was raised (CD-15) flipped to the Republicans. The results of the election did not surprise me though since that district was the most vulnerable of the three South Texas districts and I've mentioned that belief several times since February. I'll take solace that all three South Texas congressional districts didn't flip to the Republicans despite what other Democrats may feel about Cuellar. A win is a win--no need for second guessing or "what ifs" until the next primary.

[grantcart]

6. +1 great points

[Celerity]

7. But will Cuellar ratfuck us on a reproductive rights bill IF he is the deciding House vote?

I disagree with you that Cisneros would have lost the general (it would have likely been closer, that I admit) but that is not the main point of my OP.

Btw, I also, at the same time, would have rather have had a more moderate primary challenger to Cuellar, as I am NOT wedded to Cisneros or any prog there, I just dislike Cuellar other than the fact he is marginally a Dem and votes for a Dem speaker. He is horrific on multiple issues, shits all over Biden, and campaigns and fundraises for Rethugs. He is the only Dem House member I advocate primarying, hopefully with a more moderate person next time.

I have said this for years here, so nothing new.

[TexasTowelie]

8. FWIW, there was a third candidate in the Democratic primary this year

and she had a similar agenda as Cisneros. She was also a better candidate (at least on paper) with real world and public service experience since she was several years older than Cisneros. However, the voters in CD-28 chose Cuellar and neither of us is in the position to question that decision since we don't reside in that district.

I doubt that Cuellar will ever be the deciding vote on any abortion related legislation so I'm not as worried as you are. Any legislation passed by a GOP-controlled House on abortion will be vetoed by the President so Henry Cuellar's vote isn't going to change anything.

It's in situations like this (where we wish for better) that I'm reminded of the Serenity Prayer. Provided that he remains in good health Henry Cuellar will be the representative for TX CD-28 for the next two years. There will be a primary in 2024, but for now Cuellar is who the congressional district wants and I respect the choice the voters made. All of the "what ifs" should be deposited in the trash can where they rightfully belong. Those that don't accept the results of the primary, runoff, and general election aren't much different than the MAGAts that refuse to accept their losses.

[onetexan]

10. K&R!!

Hi TT long time no see

[Celerity]

11. I laid out a very specific situation, obviously if the Rethugs win the House, there will be no bill

for reproductive rights.

Biden will also not have to vero anything, as we have very very likely won the Senate.

I asked specifically that IF we somehow do retain the House (it would likely be 218-217) and Cuellar is the 218th and deciding vote, would he backstab us and block the bill.

Perhaps there is a pro choice Rethug in the House who would break ranks and support it.

[TexasTowelie]

12. You laid out a very specific situation that includes the word "if".

Someone can look at a glass of water and say it is either half empty or half full. I prefer to have a positive outlook and thus I dismiss pessimistic hypothetical situations that begin with "if." YMMV, but I'm not going to dwell on something that hasn't happened--that's what keeps me sane and somewhat happy.

In addition, we don't know whether Cuellar would block any legislation regarding abortion. In a close situation, I suspect that Cuellar may cast a "present" vote or not vote at all. I may be incorrect, but I don't believe that Cuellar has the been the lone vote that ever killed any legislation in the House (or in committee either) that was sponsored by Democrats.

[lees1975]

13. On this issue, abortion rights

in the political atmosphere that has been created by the best midterm performance of a party in power in 40 years, with that being decisive in so many elections? Republicans being what they are, there might be several who would sell out the party platform if they thought it would lead to their re-election.