Maricopa drop: Hobbs 40746 Lake 43747

[mobeau69]

Had to edited totals of last drop thanks to John Berman for fucking up.

[SheltieLover]

1. Oh no!

More to come I presume?

[Hamlette]

24. I thought we would win Maracopa

what did I miss?

[yankee87]

2. Call it

Hobbs is going to win. Just call it already

[Demsrule86]

12. +1000

[dchill]

3. 88% of votes counted.

[msongs]

4. msnbc says lake gains about 4000 in latest drop nt

[mobeau69]

8. Correct. See my edit.

[triron]

11. But the difference is only 3000?

[AZSkiffyGeek]

15. The total difference is a little less than 35000

[triron]

25. No it's 3001.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

27. No Lake gained 3001 votes

Hobbs is still up 35k.

[triron]

29. Exactly

[Demsrule86]

14. She didn't get enough...she is not winning by big enough margins.

[ananda]

33. Yes, it had to be a really high percentage for Lake. Hobbs wins!

!!!

[mercuryblues]

37. I don't remember the exact percentage

that lake needs of the remainder of the count to win the election. Even though she gained votes, she fell short of what she needs.

[Demsrule86]

47. Yup, I think she loses.

[LeftInTX]

16. That's not good. Why is everyone happy?

[Celerity]

38. because the rate of R gain in this drop is far too low (only around 52-48 R) for Lake to catch Hobbs

statewide IF the last 195,000 in Maricopa also stay at that rate

In 2020 Trump won these types of ballots around 60-40, so Lake is massively underperforming so far

[LeftInTX]

39. Yeah, I'm getting it now. The headline didn't spell out very much!

[Celerity]

40. yes, the OP title is problematic, but I am just trying to clear it up via replies to others in the

thread, rather than whinge on about the title (which is a thing I am trying to stop doing, lol)

[JohnSJ]

42. a little problematic? +++

[Celerity]

43. it has no clear explanation of impact/relevancy nt

[JohnSJ]

44. I know, I was agreeing with your post Celerity

[Celerity]

45. ahhh, oki, sorry

[JohnSJ]

46. ........

[Demsrule86]

48. No, they didn't explain it well.

[FlyingPiggy]

5. Wooooohooooo!!! 🎉🎉🎉

[oswaldactedalone]

6. Wow!!

Our mules are doing a great job getting those suitcases of ballots counted!!

[yankee87]

9. Republicans Freeper

The Qpublican party will use this sarcasm as proof cheating. Check Freeper tomorrow

[msongs]

10. so is john berman no longer a reliable source lol nt

[mobeau69]

18. He was getting the vote in his earpiece with Blitzer yakking at him at the same time.

John King Would’ve just tuned out that pompous pos.

[LeftInTX]

13. Oh no!!!

Hobbs is way short

[Demsrule86]

19. You are joking right? Lake didn't get big enough margins to do much damage.

[LeftInTX]

20. It's not making sense to me. Someone on another thread is kinda explaining though

[MissB]

23. Hopefully it's been explained!

The difference is just the batch that dropped- so Lake got about 4,000 more in the batch, but Hobbs still has ~35,000? Vote lead.

So Hobbs is fine.

There are still about 195,000 votes left to count but really Lake needed to win a huge percentage of this last batch, and she didn’t.

So it’s all good.

[Celerity]

17. The newest drop was around 85,000 ballots, of which Lake gained a net 4000 or so

That Maricopa percentage gained is far lower than the Rethugs expected.

There are around 195,000 Maricopa ballots left to report.

At this rate of SLIGHT Rethug edge for Maricopa remaining ballots (this rate is NOT guaranteed though), Lake very likely cannot catch Hobbs statewide.

There will likely be 2 more drops

One on Sunday night

and one on Monday night

[honest.abe]

21. +1

Thank you for the clear explanation.

[Abolishinist]

28. Hobbs got 48.8% of the latest drop in Maricopa,

the skank 51.2%. Hobbs only needs around 41% of the remaining votes (assuming around 195,000) to win!

Although this drop was a little bit worse than the one yesterday, where Hobbs received 54.0% of around 74,000 votes.

I thought I read somewhere which part of the county these votes were from, but now I can't find it.

[Celerity]

30. I am still a wee bit nervous as we all have no idea what type of votes are left in that 195,000

but I am far happier atm than I was a half hour ago

[Abolishinist]

32. Same here. If memory serves, and experience has shown me not to go there,

this batch was from a wealthier, more R, suburb. The next one(s) up are more from the southern parts of the county, which are not quite as red (?).

[Celerity]

36. I have no idea if the ballots remaining/released are segregated by area, sorry

[mobeau69]

34. "the skank". Perfect! LOL

[Abolishinist]

35. Thanks, I was struggling if I should call her that.

Couldn't decide about the capitalization or lack thereof. Like between THE SKANK, or the SKANK, or possibly Skanky!

[honest.abe]

22. This pretty much guarantees Hobbs wins.

[mulucha]

31. David Axelrod has seen enough

Link to tweet

?s=20&t=cKEr4_oOuJF1RbTAEpvR7g

[StarryNite]

41. Votes are still coming in.

Unfortunately the lake skank is moving up just a little more. This is making me very nervous.

[honest.abe]

49. Hobbs current lead is over 34000 so Lake needs big gains in the remaining votes.

From what I see it looks like the vast majority remaining votes are from Dem leaning counties... Maricopa and Pima.

I think its over.