If election preference polling was a lie, then presidential polling was just as worthless

[bigtree]

...we can't have credible discussions about Pres. Biden's approval based on compromised and flawed polling.

Discuss.

[doc03]

1. Good point. nt

[onecaliberal]

2. Exactly. I said that yesterday.

[BlueIdaho]

3. Bingo!

All polling is a mirage.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Polls aren't supposed to run the country because they lack leadership

Going where the polls are? No way to exercise sound judgment.

[GreenWave]

5. Have we ever seen a poll about our oligarchs?

[Demsrule86]

6. If you look at regular polls ...not the GOP polls...they were pretty accurate. It was the

Trafalgar, Inside Advantage, and all the rest that were wrong. Possibly deliberately. And this affected the Aggregates at RCP and 538.

[cyclonefence]

7. Since the 2016 election

and the failure of election polls, I not only don't pay attention to polls, no matter what their source, I refuse to take part in them. I hang up on pollsters wanting my opinion on anything, including which toothpaste I prefer.

People tell one thing to pollsters, may vote another way or not vote at all. People who said they were going to vote for Hillary just didn't bother to vote. Polls are not going to break my heart ever again.

[Silent3]

8. I don't think it's a lie, it's just that most of the disapproval of Biden...

...is at the "meh" level, not like the deep, gut-wrenching disgust that Trump creates among those who disapprove of him.

Simplistic approve/disapprove polls can't convey those kinds of distinctions.

[bigtree]

11. the lie was the way in which the polls were used by the media and others

...to convey to readers and viewers (and potential voters) that there was something deeply unpopular about Democrats.

like this article on Vox in October:

Democratic optimism about the midterms is fading
The polls have shifted a bit toward the GOP — but the vibes have shifted a lot.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/19/23408788/midterms-2022-polls-republicans-forecast

In the late summer, the political world was filled with talk of Democrats’ surprising strength in polls and in special election results. And many believed backlash against the Dobbs decision, which ended the federal right to an abortion, had opened the way for the incumbent’s party to avoid the typical midterm wipeout.

Now, with the election less than three weeks away, that Democratic optimism has faded — at least somewhat. Numbers for some Senate candidates who had been polling strikingly well, like John Fetterman in Pennsylvania and Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin, have come back down to Earth. Some blue state governor’s contests now seem unexpectedly competitive. Polls show gas prices and inflation are on many voters’ minds again, and that abortion is fading somewhat as an issue.

[gulliver]

9. It's like watching a horror movie

We don't know why the respondents approve or disapprove most of the time. Was Biden too far left on an issue they hold dear or too far right? Or, as you mention, was the poll just flawed?

Maybe the most horrifying thing about approval polls is that they are used as shorthand for "popularity" in comments and articles by the arrogant, stupid, and ill-intentioned. So, on the basis of "job approval" polls, Biden will be labeled as "unpopular." That's stupid. That's "don't bother washing your hands before performing surgery" stupid. It's braindead. How does something so wrong become such a habit?

When I think of the word "popular," I think of someone who has maybe a hundred people who really like them. Biden has, worldwide and in the U.S., probably hundreds of millions, even billions who like him. Even a lot of Republicans who disagree with Biden probably like him. But we'll somehow hear some callow fool talking knowingly about how Biden is unpopular, and the rest of the people around the table just nod.

[Pisces]

10. I don't think exit polling was flawed. That's how we know people

Voted on democracy and Roe. It’s also how we know the youth turned out. Traditional polling before elections is not working. I think as Democrats we do t want to say certain things out loud.
I personally would not want to see Biden up against DeSantis. He will look old to the American people. Against Trump no problem but we see the rats jumping. Trump will not be on the ticket. Also, people have not taken to Kamala.
He will not be able to dump her. I do think we are in a bind because Biden has done a fantastic job of getting this Country back on track and stabilizing us. These are not nice things to say but they are true.

[BumRushDaShow]

12. Correct.

When Gallup, the supposed "gold standard", did their royal screw-up with the Obama/Romney 2012 final trial heat, they eventually analyzed what happened, wrote a mea culpa, and decided to stop doing that particular poll -

November 5, 2012
Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup's Final Election Survey
Early voting so far breaks 49% for Obama and 48% for Romney
Gallup Editors

PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are within one percentage point of each other in Gallup's final pre-election survey of likely voters, with Romney holding 49% of the vote, and Obama 48%. After removing the 3% of undecided voters from the results and allocating their support proportionally to the two major candidates, Gallup's final allocated estimate of the race is 50% for Romney and 49% for Obama.



The survey was conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Nov. 1-4.

(snip)

https://news.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

And eventually the mea culpa had to happen and they released a final analysis of what went wrong (PDF), and their long-time partner USA Today ended their relationship with Gallup a few months later) -

Gallup identifies flaws in 2012 election polls


Martha T. Moore
USA TODAY
Published 2:24 p.m. E.T. June 4, 2013 | Updated 5:02 p.m. ET June 4, 2013



WASHINGTON – Pollsters at Gallup said Tuesday they have identified flawed methods that contributed to their incorrect prediction that Mitt Romney would win the 2012 presidential election, but they are still working to determine how to better identify who is likely to vote.

The survey firm undertook a far-reaching review of its operations after its surveys came up short in the election: Gallup's final pre-election estimate showed Romney with 49% support to Obama's 48%, with a margin of error of +/-2%. Most polls estimated Obama would win the popular vote by 1 percentage point. Obama won the popular vote by 3.85 points.

In pre-election polling, Gallup consistently showed Romney with a 3-percentage point lead over Obama. When Gallup switched to surveying only "likely voters," Romney's edge increased to 4 percentage points.

Gallup, with researchers from the University of Michigan, will experiment with ways to better identify likely voters in surveys during the 2013 governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia. Gallup asks seven questions in its phone surveys to determine whether people are likely to vote – a questionnaire that may rely too much on past voting and on how much "thought" voters have given to the election, Gallup Poll editor in chief Frank Newport said. Though all polling outfits showed an increase of support for Romney among likely voters vs. registered voters, Gallup's bump for Romney was the most extreme. "We really are re-evaluating that from square one," Newport said.

(snip)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/06/04/gallup-poll-election-obama-romney/2388921/

The final vote was 51% Obama - 47% Romney.

Their aggregate 2012 "trial heat" call was akin to what 538 just did with Fetterman regarding who they assumed were "Likely Voters", but 538 ignored their call, and simply brushed it off to move on to something else -



As of the last count, Fetterman leads Oz 51% - 47%.