Tonight's drop in Arizona is going to be important

[sunonmars]

This is going to be so so tight......and most likely why they are not calling the Gov yet.

Link to tweet

About 90k of the remaining 170k uncounted EVs are from the ruby red CDs 5, 8, and 9. Another 70k from purple CDs 1 and 4.

.........................

Hobbs needs to keep this lot as close as possible. Hopefully they will be bluer than expected.

Fingers, toes, legs, arms and anything else will be crossed.

[KarenS]

1. Hopefully the EV (early votes?) are more skewed toward

the Democrats bec the R's were encouraged to vote on 'the day'.

((fingers crossed))

[sunonmars]

4. Oh god I hope so, i could not listen to that deranged Harpie for the next 4 years on TV screeching.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

2. Voters REJECTED 2 MAGAts in Arizona

For Sec. Of State and AG there.

What makes Lake think she will not be rejected?

[sunonmars]

3. They are losing by around 135K, Lake is only behind by 35K. Thats the difference.

[underpants]

5. Finchem lost? Yes!

I just looked it up. 👍

[sunonmars]

7. Yes, he's 126K down, can't make that up with 295K left unless you're pulling a literal 80/20

[AZSkiffyGeek]

14. AG hasn't been called - it's tighter than Hobbs/Lake

[Mosby]

6. Please.

The election in az is over.

Just stop it.

[sunonmars]

10. Its literally not over yet, i'd like it to be, it is for Senate, and AG

They have a large lead, but the other 3 are really in a fight for it.

However much we'd like it to be.

[Mosby]

28. Don't need du.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/legislative/33/0

[Coventina]

25. Shows what you know. My CD is 8 and the Dem is only ahead by 2,500 votes.

It is VERY important to me what this next batch of votes are.

You didn't have to click on the thread if you don't care.

[Mosby]

27. Mendez is up by 15k+

Maybe you should check yourself instead of relying on some discussion board.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/legislative/33/0

[Coventina]

30. Oops! Sorry, I typed the wrong legislative district.

My FEDERAL CD is #1

Where those stats apply.

Yes, it looks like Mendez is going to win for state.

I apologize for the confusion.

[Coventina]

33. So, Mr. "It's Over" the Dem is now behind. n/t

[Coventina]

35. And, now the race has been called for the Puke Schweikert

So, tell me again how it was "over" and I will have a Dem rep in Congress?

[Mosby]

36. Fair point.

But it's the only change from days ago. And he won by about 3000 votes.

[moonscape]

8. Indeed. I'm a pretzel crossed

into another pretzel so tightly that I’ll need a crane to untangle me.

[sunonmars]

12. The end of the count of 2020 near damn well stroked me out....too bloody close for comfort.

[GreenWave]

9. The EV are ready to take another daily dump on Lake.

[sunonmars]

11. I absolutely hope so. I want that witch,down,buried and someone smacking the earth with a shovel.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

13. I trust Garrett but this has been the daily refrain since Weds.

Every day is "this drop is the one to put Lake up". She's running out of room, she didn't do well in CD1 last night, and CD4 is NOT purple.
There seems to be an assumption that all R votes are going for Qari, along with half the I votes. That's just not happening.

Plus there's still 50K out in Pima, which have consistently been breaking 60/40 for Hobbs.

[sunonmars]

15. We'll know one way or other tonight i expect. Its getting down to the wire now

Its clear though Hobbs and the other statewide Dems ran some way behind Kelly and Fontes.

I'm interested as to why just pure ticket splitting in various places?

[Polybius]

16. If you're asking why she did better than Masters and the other one, that's easy

She's far, far more charismatic than they are. She's a darling of the far-right. If she wins, she'll be Trump's VP nominee (if he runs and gets the nomination).

[Demsrule86]

31. Good thing she won't win...

[Polybius]

34. Very good thing

Trump won't win either.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

17. Probably all the negative press towards Hobbs

There was also a 3rd party candidate in the Senate race, and Finchem was the worst candidate of the three.

[Happy Hoosier]

19. Exactly

He seems well intentioned, but he keeps warning of a large swing that never seems to materialize. But the race is tight, so caution is advised.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

20. He tries to be scrupulously neutral

He won't make any calls or predictions for the ultimate result. All he's saying is where the votes are coming from, Charlie Kirk fans are swarming his posts making predictions of the content of those ballots, and they are basing it off 2020 results.
They're forgetting that Trump didn't win in 2020, and that Lake is underperforming Trump.
The conventional wisdom on Tuesday was that Hobbs needed at least a 10 point lead with the early votes out the gate.
She had 12 points.
Election day voting nuked that lead down to 5000 votes, but since then she's expanded her lead every day.

[sunonmars]

22. They just can't tell if its an 18 or a 20 vote, they can see the partisan breakdown

but where that goes in reality is just unknown.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

23. Exactly

I think the breakdown of the remaining votes is something like 28D/38I/44R. Lake is losing the Independents and underperforming the Republicans.

[Happy Hoosier]

18. It's not a done deal, but....

That dude has been overestimating Lake’s performance consistently.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

21. He isn't maing predictions - he's just saying where the votes come from

People have been reading into where the votes are left and expecting them to break hugely for Lake. So far they aren't.

[Happy Hoosier]

26. Yeah, I get that...

He’s be cautionary, but not predictive. He backed off some of his earlier suggestions as the votes margins were not as big for Lake as some suggested they might be.

[sunonmars]

24. Small drop but important

Link to tweet

[honest.abe]

29. I don't think Lake gains much from the remaining votes based on this..

Link to tweet

/photo/1

If you run the numbers using the average lean it comes to about 5000 votes gain for Lake. I did the estimates in my head so could be off a bit.

[sunonmars]

32. Small drop in Pinal and Lake is not getting the margins in a GOP county

Link to tweet

Pinal County has tabulated 4,055 ballots
Est. 12,226 EVs remain.

Batch breakdown
Governor
@KariLake
54.9
@katiehobbs
45.2

Senate
@bgmasters
50.9
@CaptMarkKelly
46.3

AZAG
@AbrahamHamadeh
55.5
@krismayes
44.5

AZED
@electtomhorne
55.4
@kathyhoffman_az
44.6