AZ-GOV: Nate Cohn says the odds are growing in Hobbs' favor

[RandySF]

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[SunSeeker]

1. Nate has been so wrong this cycle, I kinda wish he didn't make this statement.

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[dchill]

2. 538's Nate is Silver, not Cohn.

[SunSeeker]

3. Oops, mixed up my Nates, not that Nate Cohn/NYT have been much better this cycle.

[rpannier]

4. I read through the thread. A lot red areas still to be counted

Unlikely Lake will win. But, most of the votes come from areas favorable to her

[riversedge]

5. The Hill: Hobbs lead over Lake narrows with 93 percent of votes counted

Article also says how Lake continues to say that workers are purposely slowing down the count.






Hobbs lead over Lake narrows with 93 percent of votes counted


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3733721-hobbs-lead-over-lake-narrows-with-93-percent-of-votes-counted/


by Julia Mueller - 11/13/22 9:19 PM ET
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(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Democrat Katie Hobbs’ lead over Republican Kari Lake in Arizona’s gubernatorial race has narrowed to just 1 percentage point with 93 percent of the state’s vote tallied.

The two candidates are now separated by just 26,000 votes, five days after last week’s election. Hobbs’ lead stood at about 36,000 votes earlier in the day.

Despite the gain, Lake’s window for victory appears to be closing.

Dave Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report said after the latest vote drop Sunday that it’s “extremely tough to see how Kari Lake (R) wins now.”

Lake gained ground in Maricopa county with 54 percent of the nearly 100,000 votes reported Sunday evening, but that’s not by a wide enough margin to close the gap with Hobbs. As of Sunday night, Lake needs 58 percent of all remaining votes to win, according to AZ Central.

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[honest.abe]

6. I would say the odds are are about 99-1.

Hobbs is going to win.