Arizona governor

[chillfactor]

going to be called today?

[ProudMNDemocrat]

1. I have been praying that the ballot drop goes heavily for Katie Hobbs.

[DestinyIsles]

2. I think so

current gap is 26k votes don't how Lake makes all that up with the areas remaining.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

5. It's 24K and change now

A small red drop came in from Pinal county. Apparently it was enough to convince Qari to come out of her foxhole and Tweet her followers to cure their ballots. Her first tweet in over a day - and not one that sounds like someone who thinks they've won.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

7. Qari!?!

Perfect!

She better go down!!!

[Effete Snob]

3. The nutbars are gathering to storm the Maricopa election center

So, if they manage to get in, kill people and firebomb the place, who knows.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

6. The Democratic Maricopa sheriff is already on it

He doesn't seem too pleased about these demonstrators/threats.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

9. Wish I really could trust Maricopa County Sheriffs in general

I know one of them (my former BiL), and he's a dick.

They're overall maybe not as much of assholes as Phoenix PD from what I've seen, but ... I'd bet a lot of the rank and file are Q freaks, and not on our side.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

13. Yeah, Penzone isn't perfect, but he's on our side

And he does seem pretty pissed about this clownshow. And at least he isn't Arpaio.

[Effete Snob]

25. I don't think it matters what his politics are

Does he have enough muscle to hold the line when these people rush the gate?

[Cha]

12. Good to know! A Dem sheriff.. wow, AZ! nt

[AZSkiffyGeek]

16. (I think he's a former R)

But he REALLY hates Arpaio - Arpaio tried to smear him as a pedophile a few election cycles back.

[StarryNite]

4. A small ballot drop so far today.

Katie Hobbs is now leading by 24,772.

[Cha]

15. Mahalo, Starrynite! 🤞🤷‍♂️🤞💕 So

many People from all over the US are pulling for Katie Hobbs!

[StarryNite]

17. Thank you!

We need all the support and good vibes we can get!

[Cha]

19. I used to live in Phoenix and Tucson..

super Fond Memories.. I'm so excited about Arizona turning so much MORE BLUE!! 💙💙💙

[StarryNite]

21. That's awesome Cha! I had no idea you used to be an AZ desert dweller.

Yes, we are turning BLUE!!!

[Cha]

24. Yeah, and I love the Desert! It was

many Moons ago but one doesn't forget some of the best memories of their lives!

💙 💙

[Kennah]

8. MSNBC has been reporting that Lake's hopes are fading because the drops aren't as helpful to her

[MontanaMama]

10. Here's to Scary Lane going down in flames.

[Cha]

18. She's Earned It.. Midterm

Karma for her ugly mini DT robot mouth.

🤷‍♂️🤞💕🤞

[CoopersDad]

11. I did some math, Lake needs 57% of remaining ballots...

This is assuming that 180,000 are due to come in.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

14. I think it's closer to 150K

and 40K are from Pima which is very blue. There's another 10K or so from smaller blue areas.

[CoopersDad]

20. I was just going by the NY Times, but you might be right.

I worked from the "93%" accounted for with 2,400,558 counted, leaving 7% to go, for about 180,000.

If there are only 150K left to count, Lake is gonna need an even larger share of them.

2,550,558 total votes (current plus 150K)

50% of that is 1,275,279 and this means Lake will need 58% of the remaining ballots, it seems very unlikely!

[AZSkiffyGeek]

23. That sounds right

And Pima and the other blue counties will bump that up to around 60, IIRC. Hobbs could pick up another 10K from the remaining blue counties.

[Abolishinist]

26. According the State of AZ,

there are ~158,000 votes left to count. Excluding Maricopa and Pima, there are around 24,000 remaining in the more Red counties, which if based on prior percentages would allow a net gain of 3,600 for the opponent.

If Hobbs continues her 60% in Pima, then she will pick up 8,800 there, for a net gain of 5,200, giving her an advantage before the final 95,000 in Maricopa of 30,000.

So if the above holds true, then the break-even point for her in Maricopa is around 31%. If Katie gets 45% there then she wins by 20,000 votes.


[link:https://apps.arizona.vote/info/bps/2022-general-election/33/0|

[AZSkiffyGeek]

27. Not all the rest are Red either

Coconino and Apache are blue and IIRC there's over 9000 left between those two. Navajo and Yuma have been less friendly for Lake as well.

[Abolishinist]

28. I left Coconino out because there's only 1500 votes remaining, Katie should pick up 400 votes there.

Regarding Apache, 100% of the votes have been counted.

Navajo has gone for Hobb's opponent 54% of the time, including the last dump there on 11/11. There are 4,400 votes remaining. Yuma has gone for Hobb's opponent 56% of the time, but there are only 1,100 votes left to tally.

Cochise has 8,200 left, and to date has gone for the other 59% of the time. Pinal has 9,100 and the R has 58% of the vote.

[Mr.Bill]

22. And Trump will say

"Then suddenly, a week after the election, like a miracle they found 180,000 votes. And nobody knows where they came from or where they've been all this time."