General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSyria can be reached from Iran by going through northern Iraq.
I'm wondering if the reason we don't see a Western responce to the horrid situation in Syria is because the west wants a civil war in Syria that could spill over into Iran. Can you not just see a civil war in Syria with Iraq supporting the rebels and Iran supporting Assad?
Edited to add: apparently Iraq is supporting Assad. Well blow me down with a feather. I'm totally wrong. But not about the part where the USA hopes that a civil war breaks out in Iran some day.
tabatha
(18,795 posts)Also, Russia and China will not abstain in a UN vote for Syria as they did for Libya.
Also number two, a non-military option with the Arab League monitors was tried in the hope of a better way.
applegrove
(118,778 posts)tabatha
(18,795 posts)More than six months after the start of the Syrian uprising, Iraq is offering key moral and financial support to the countrys embattled president, undermining a central U.S. policy objective and raising fresh concerns that Iraq is drifting further into the orbit of an American arch rival Iran.
Iraqs stance has dealt an embarrassing setback to the Obama administration, which has sought to enlist Muslim allies in its campaign to isolate Syrian autocrat Bashar al-Assad. While other Arab states have downgraded ties with Assad, Iraq has moved in the opposite direction, hosting official visits by Syrians, signing pacts to expand business ties and offering political support.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iraq-siding-with-iran-sends-lifeline-to-assad/2011/10/06/gIQAFEAIWL_story.html
applegrove
(118,778 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)The international order is in flux.
David__77
(23,508 posts)Iraq and Iran are partners in this matter.
applegrove
(118,778 posts)Fool Count
(1,230 posts)Both Iran and Iraq are majority shiite, while Syrian uprising is almost exclusively sunni.
Turkey, Qatar and other Arab League interventionists are all sunni too. So there you go -
that's your complete explanations of positions those countries take vis-a-vie Syrian events.
The only other factor beside sectarianism is how friendly/hostile Assad regime is to US-Israel/
Russia/China. So that's your explanation for positions of those countries. All the crap about
"peaceful pro-democracy protesters set upon by ruthless dictatorship" is just one-sided propaganda
directed at fixing the truth around the policy, you know, the usual stuff.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)nobody wants a civil war that could potentially lead to 1 million plus refugees and a potential regional war.
applegrove
(118,778 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)A civil war in Syria would lead to a flow of refugees to Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and possibly Israel through the highly militarized and MINED Golan Heights. Worst case scenario this could lead to a regional war. (Ok there is an even worst case, but hey)
Let me offer you some datapoints
1.- The Iranians do have access to a port in Latakia, that they are using to bring support in. That means through Suez.
2.- The Turks closed the overland route that went though their own territory that was used by the Iranians to ship logistics to Syria. Until six months ago Turkey and Syria were strong allies.
3.- During the Iraq war where do you think a lot of the freedom fighters came from? Syria. So as you suggest that border has been a tad porous but it did not start now. It's been porous for a few years... oh and there was a US Raid (Special Forces) into Syria back in '07 if memory serves... way too tired to look it up right now.
4.- Then there is the connection to Hizobollah and another internal jihadist group. Hizbollah is an ally of Iran.
5.- The Russians have access to the northern port of Tartus, they have access to three piers, one is functional. Yes, the Russians have brought what could be measured as a light battlegroup... and we have a battle group in the Eastern Med.
We have been doing way too much research into this crap for a story... but those are the important datapoints.
Hell, will be nice, highly technical paper and I mean this HIGHLY TECHNICAL, but this policy paper if you want to go through it, will catch you nicely.
http://www.henryjacksonsociety.org/cms/harriercollectionitems/SyriaIntervention.pdf
Suffice it to say, yes they are considering it... just not easy. Oh and all those datapoints are not necessarily in there, but that is the most comprehensive of the reams of data we got on this.
JCMach1
(27,572 posts)Just fly over those areas and you will know what I mean...
Iran is already supporting Assad... Iraq isn't in a position to support anyone... However, Saudi money is firmly against Assad.
bhikkhu
(10,724 posts)...who don't put up with that sort of nonsense. I suppose that could easily just make things more complex, but as you say - geography is against the spread of a civil war, and there's more than just mountains between Iran and Syria.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)FREE KURDISTAN
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)...that lady inside the Garmin has the roads all messed up on that route, and she keeps saying "recalculating" and sending you around in circles.
applegrove
(118,778 posts)freedom. I guess the government in Iraq has developed a relationship with Assad.
David__77
(23,508 posts)Saddam Hussein was strongly anti-Assad, but the post-Baathist Iraqi government has always been very friendly with Syria.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)they still live there, and are probably packing to flee. Last thing they want to do is find themselves on their way back to Baghdad.
Also a lot of refugees fled to the Syrian side of the border during the war, and strained the fairly decent, until sanctions, Syrian safety net. So it is not that black and white. There are factions in baghdad that support Syria.. there are factions that do not. Still, even if Baghdad truly wanted to completely seal the border, well good luck with that.