GA-SEN: A Pinky on the Scale for Raphael Warnock

[RandySF]

Cook Political Report: “Limited polling during the runoff has continued to show a margin of error contest, but has Warnock still leading considerably among independents. The race is close enough that we are still keeping it in our Toss Up column, and we don’t think a possible Warnock victory is probable enough to shift it to Lean Democrat.”

“But we might put a pinky on the scale for the Democratic incumbent, whose victory would cap off an astounding turn for Senate Democrats despite economic headwinds and history going against them. It would once again underscore that Republicans clearly have a candidate quality problem – and likely will until the party turns away from Trump.”



https://politicalwire.com/2022/12/02/a-pinky-on-the-scale-for-raphael-warnock/

[Bettie]

1. I still can't believe it is

close....WTF is wrong with people nearly everywhere in this country that they are willing to elect absolutely unqualified, horrific candidates and turn away from decent humans?

It's rhetorical....because Republicans are f-ing nuts.

[SharonClark]

6. There was a GQP voter interviewed on MSNBC yesterday.

He said he voted for for Walker because he's a republican - the team and all.
He followed that up with praising Warnock for being a good and smart man.

The reporter was a bit baffled and the voter just smiled and shrugged his shoulder.

Yes, GQPpers are that bad.

[Carlitos Brigante]

7. They hate us more than they love their own country. They're not deaf. They know this

clown has "baby brain". But they don't give a shit as long as they get to "own the libs".

[Silent3]

11. Even if the polling is close, I doubt the voter enthusiam is

I'm not sure what this "limited polling" that they mention consists of, or if it even tries to estimate likelihood of voting, but I feel pretty confident the great early-voting turnout we're seeing is a sign of Warnock heading for a very non-squeaker victory.

[barbtries]

13. I'm the same way.

I just can't believe it's close. If Walker wins it will be a travesty for the ages. but trump did it so i must worry.

[SergeStorms]

2. What's their margin of error?

I believe, without any scientific proof, that Warnock will win by 5-6%. If that's within their MOE then I guess they're correct.

[W_HAMILTON]

3. Margins of error are usually two to four points or so.

And to correctly adjust for the margin of error, you have to apply it to BOTH candidates, so, if a poll with a four-point margin of error shows Warnock winning by four (52% to 48%), that means the actual outcome could be anywhere from...

56% - Warnock
44% - Walker

to

48% - Warnock
52% - Walker

[Indykatie]

4. RW Has Huge Lead With Independents But Race is Still a Toss Up? Makes No Sense.

[RandySF]

5. GA has a lot of Republican voters.

[a kennedy]

8. This is absolutely insane. Walker is a complete idiot.

[Bettie]

9. All they need is for him to vote

however he is told to.

[a kennedy]

14. and I know that, but it's just so freaking stupid that with all his garbage they'll still vote

for him. Just insane.

[RandySF]

12. Roy Moore was nearly elected Senator in Alabama despite his issues.

[bullimiami]

10. Duh it's not a candidate quality problem. It's an ideology quality problem.