GA-SEN: Why Democrats should like the early voting patterns in the Georgia Senate runoff
So far in early voting, Black voters make up a little more than 33% of the electorate, while White voters account for 54%. At a roughly similar point in the general election based on the number of early votes cast, about 31% of voters were Black and about 57% were White.
This may seem like a small difference, but given the large partisan gap between Black and White voters, it suggests that those who have gone to the polls so far are more Democratic than at a similar point in the general election.
I should note that a number of Democratic counties opened up early in-person voting sooner than Republican-leaning counties. That said, voters in all Georgia counties have been able to cast a ballot for a number of days now, and the racial voting gap between the general election and runoff has not gone away.
Moreover, the current trendline looks similar to what we saw two years ago in Georgia. Black voters made up a larger share of early voters in the 2021 Senate runoffs than at a similar period during the 2020 general election. And once all the votes were counted, it was clear that turnout in heavily Black counties saw less of a drop-off compared with other counties.
Democrats, of course, gained ground during the runoffs from the general election and captured two Senate seats in the process.
We don’t know if that will happen this time, but the racial makeup of the early electorate isn’t the only worrisome sign for Republicans.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/01/politics/georgia-senate-runoff-early-voting/index.html