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cali

(114,904 posts)
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:20 PM Nov 2012

Texas' New Senator Is Absolutely Terrified About His State Going Blue

In Ryan Lizza's story in The New Yorker this morning, new Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz worries about the changing electoral landscape — and how it could get even less favorable for the GOP in coming years.

Cruz provides what must be a truly terrifying thought for the Republican Party:

“In not too many years, Texas could switch from being all Republican to all Democrat,” he said. “If that happens, no Republican will ever again win the White House. New York and California are for the foreseeable future unalterably Democrat. If Texas turns bright blue, the Electoral College math is simple. We won’t be talking about Ohio, we won’t be talking about Florida or Virginia, because it won’t matter. If Texas is bright blue, you can’t get to two-seventy electoral votes. The Republican Party would cease to exist. We would become like the Whig Party. Our kids and grandkids would study how this used to be a national political party. ‘They had Conventions, they nominated Presidential candidates. They don’t exist anymore.’”

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/texas-swing-state-blue-election-obama-ted-cruz-2012-11#ixzz2C1fn2TKc


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Texas' New Senator Is Absolutely Terrified About His State Going Blue (Original Post) cali Nov 2012 OP
We can only hope. Chipper Chat Nov 2012 #1
Three million Texans voted for Paul Sadler. w8liftinglady Nov 2012 #2
He was still 15 points below Cruz. LisaL Nov 2012 #7
True. w8liftinglady Nov 2012 #38
Exactly. That needs to start now because a midterm is coming up in two years. nt bluestate10 Nov 2012 #115
And, he's such a cool and bright guy. He would have made an infinitely superior senator than Cruz Laura PourMeADrink Nov 2012 #109
He has the misfortune of being a democratic candidate from TX. LisaL Nov 2012 #113
Texas democrats need to get more people registered before 2014 and close the gap by 2016. nt bluestate10 Nov 2012 #116
One can only hope. n/t malthaussen Nov 2012 #3
Sounds Like A Plan, Ma'am The Magistrate Nov 2012 #4
the demographics are brutal for the GOP Botany Nov 2012 #5
interesting stats on Texas: Hamlette Nov 2012 #61
I have been saying it for years that the DNC Dustlawyer Nov 2012 #77
Amen. ellisonz Nov 2012 #95
GOP backbreaker it that happens aint_no_life_nowhere Nov 2012 #6
I got the email address from your link. I will be making contact with that group. bluestate10 Nov 2012 #117
His days are numbered even before he takes the oath of office. sadbear Nov 2012 #8
Let's hope that he is a full roasted Teanut ala Allen West. Let him grandstand, then get taken out bluestate10 Nov 2012 #118
Post removed Post removed Nov 2012 #9
Uh-oh. sadbear Nov 2012 #13
Well, I really doubt he is worried about TX going blue any time soon. LisaL Nov 2012 #15
Oh, really? Cruz was born in Alberta, Canada. He's not being nominated for POTUS. Ever. Indpndnt Nov 2012 #20
He was eligible to run for senate. LisaL Nov 2012 #27
He qualified for the Senate. He'll never qualify for POTUS. Indpndnt Nov 2012 #28
The rules are not written in stone. LisaL Nov 2012 #31
Yes, that worked well for Ah-nold. And he was the repub rock star. Indpndnt Nov 2012 #44
And it worked so well forJennifer Granholm Auntie Bush Nov 2012 #98
They are pretty close to being written in stone: truebluegreen Nov 2012 #45
Since his mother was a US citizen, he might still be eligible even under the current rules. LisaL Nov 2012 #52
Was he born on US soil? nt awoke_in_2003 Nov 2012 #83
Nope! Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Indpndnt Nov 2012 #92
Born on US soil doesn't matter. truebluegreen Nov 2012 #102
Yeah, I just refreshed my memory... awoke_in_2003 Nov 2012 #108
There might be some debate, but he probably isn't disqualified from being president, since LisaL Nov 2012 #112
Yes, assuming his mother hadn't given up her citizenship. truebluegreen Nov 2012 #136
It has never been addressed regarding the presidency Ter Nov 2012 #121
Not correct. truebluegreen Nov 2012 #137
a Canadian-born Hispanic James48 Nov 2012 #76
They can be changed only by Constitutional Amendment. That takes decades. nt bluestate10 Nov 2012 #119
Running for the US Senate has a lower requirement standard than the Presidency. Chan790 Nov 2012 #36
I know all that. LisaL Nov 2012 #43
Cruz is an idiot. And it was the idiot faction of the ChisolmTrailDem Nov 2012 #33
Cruz is NOT an idiot. He is immoral, he's spiteful, and he's bigoted, but he's not stupid.Your worst Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #56
I disagree, but they are not mutually exclusive. He is an idiot. Sadler smushed Cruz in debate Laura PourMeADrink Nov 2012 #110
At Princeton, Cruz was a national champion debater. He graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #111
That's quite a resume, I agree. I am basing my opinion on how unintelligent he was during the Laura PourMeADrink Nov 2012 #139
Time to drop the Elephant as the symbol of the GOP and use this instead. Ganja Ninja Nov 2012 #10
That's good! truebluegreen Nov 2012 #40
Something about this bird's face dragonlady Nov 2012 #63
it's the beady little eyes....n/t BlueCollar Nov 2012 #66
Also the hairline ... err, featherline. Arugula Latte Nov 2012 #69
I think it's the beady, souless eyes. Chellee Nov 2012 #72
LOL: Isn't Cruz the guy that thinks Obama & the UN are trying to ban golf? FSogol Nov 2012 #11
And we are working real hard on Arizona too. Real close this year. OffWithTheirHeads Nov 2012 #12
Carmona may in fact win the Senate seat. nt bluestate10 Nov 2012 #120
Fingers crossed! JaneyVee Nov 2012 #14
Arizona too? Filibuster Harry Nov 2012 #16
Any word on the vote count there in Arizona truebluegreen Nov 2012 #39
I think Arizona will turn blue in 2016 and stay that way. The state has a rising Hispanic AND bluestate10 Nov 2012 #122
Another win? Christmas is still here. Wahoo!!! Filibuster Harry Nov 2012 #138
Nearly 42% of the votes here went to Obama. Texas WILL go blue in the next decade or so. Indpndnt Nov 2012 #17
Yep! txdemsftw Nov 2012 #19
Cruz is a tea party republican elected to senate by a huge margin. LisaL Nov 2012 #22
Whereabouts are you in Texas? Indpndnt Nov 2012 #30
What does that have to do with a price of tea in china? LisaL Nov 2012 #47
Because, like I said, you are seeing something much different than the other Texans here. Indpndnt Nov 2012 #51
And what is it that you are seeing? LisaL Nov 2012 #53
Exactly what everyone has said throughout this entire thread & in the article. Indpndnt Nov 2012 #57
Perhaps lil Teddy won by the Latino-Latina population voting for him MagickMuffin Nov 2012 #73
I don't see Texas turning blue any time soon either. I see a breakthrough (not a sea change) in 2020 Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #59
Incremental, not "sea change" is a start. "Go blue" is a process and it will happen. Indpndnt Nov 2012 #71
Texas also has very low voter turnout! lobointexas Nov 2012 #89
Exactly! We need the Obama GOTV method to be put to work here! Indpndnt Nov 2012 #94
Exactly.. txdemsftw Nov 2012 #96
We'll need a massive GOTV effort at first, but once the boulder starts rolling it will pick up speed Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #99
I agree with you.. txdemsftw Nov 2012 #100
I'm not so sure. lobointexas Nov 2012 #101
There were major GOTV efforts in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, McAllen, Corpus Christi, Austin, etc. Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #103
I agree that it seems impossible in the short term. lobointexas Nov 2012 #107
a couple more summers like the last two and everyone will be leaving Tx ThomThom Nov 2012 #48
It sure has gotten toasty, hasn't it? And the wildfires were terrifying. Indpndnt Nov 2012 #55
Keep fighting. nt bluestate10 Nov 2012 #123
I know a hell of a lot of Republicans in TX, txdemsftw Nov 2012 #18
Then quit and concede the election to Paul Sadler Panasonic Nov 2012 #21
I am sure he has an agenda to say what he is saying. LisaL Nov 2012 #25
President of what? sadbear Nov 2012 #46
But his mother was a US citizen. LisaL Nov 2012 #50
You're putting the birthers in a very tight spot there. sadbear Nov 2012 #54
The cynical position smaug Nov 2012 #60
Guess it wasn't Herman or Michael either Panasonic Nov 2012 #74
And it would be your own fault (GOP). n/t calico1 Nov 2012 #23
I would love to have Democrat Texans return to every Congressional seat. Thinkingabout Nov 2012 #24
Cruz is a crazy-assed tea partier and it makes me sick he won. Avalux Nov 2012 #26
It would certainly help if we didn't have so many txdemsftw Nov 2012 #29
Because they are not encouraged due to absence of any real GOTV in TX. LisaL Nov 2012 #34
Agreed.. txdemsftw Nov 2012 #37
Some else posted the Facebook link to this email address above, try getting in touch. bluestate10 Nov 2012 #126
I will.. txdemsftw Nov 2012 #134
Better to start with a grass roots effort. Our national party people are so fucking dense bluestate10 Nov 2012 #125
True, that. ALL of it! Indpndnt Nov 2012 #41
His lips to Dog's ears! nt truebluegreen Nov 2012 #32
Don't worry, Ted, I'm sure they'll change the rules for ya BeyondGeography Nov 2012 #35
I fail to see the problem with this, Mr Senator. 99Forever Nov 2012 #42
from his lips to his god's ears...hopefully. BlueMan Votes Nov 2012 #49
That would be amazing if it happened. Initech Nov 2012 #58
He clearly doesn't know how this whole '2 party' thing works. laundry_queen Nov 2012 #62
He won a landslide. He's lying as usual Doctor_J Nov 2012 #64
Wasn't Cruz one of the EC Nov 2012 #65
One of theses days, one of the Castro brothers is going to lock horns with this ass Brother Buzz Nov 2012 #67
FYI, Cruz, you're also in a world of hurt if Florida tips solidly blue. Arugula Latte Nov 2012 #68
Florida seems to be in that space now. Three of the last four Presidential elections, it went blue bluestate10 Nov 2012 #127
Their Solution: Tax Cuts! ChairmanAgnostic Nov 2012 #70
That is probably the smartest thing I've ever heard him say. ceile Nov 2012 #75
And this bad because why??? Roland99 Nov 2012 #78
Senator, we're working on it. ffr Nov 2012 #79
Maybe enough old white Texans will die off before the next election to make it come true. nt valerief Nov 2012 #80
i'll be happy the day barbtries Nov 2012 #81
Texas used to be blue... awoke_in_2003 Nov 2012 #82
Yes, when the democratic party still had lots of segregationists in it. bluestate10 Nov 2012 #128
If you haven't noticed... awoke_in_2003 Nov 2012 #130
The only way they can keep that from happening is if...... Swede Atlanta Nov 2012 #84
And let's get Georgia and Arkansas back too! RedCloud Nov 2012 #85
Drama Renew Deal Nov 2012 #86
Can't wait! easttexaslefty Nov 2012 #87
I just have to say once again.. txdemsftw Nov 2012 #88
Ted, welcome to the new America. sarcasmo Nov 2012 #90
Well alright then, we know what priority #1 is now... ck4829 Nov 2012 #91
From your lips to Gods ears n/t outsideworld Nov 2012 #93
LOLOLOLOL!!! PoliticalBiker Nov 2012 #97
+1 Incitatus Nov 2012 #104
More Republican skills at reading polling & demographic data. Bucky Nov 2012 #105
Texas need to find democrats that have balls, like Ann Richards, even though she was a woman. bluestate10 Nov 2012 #129
Oh, waaaaah. KatyaR Nov 2012 #106
The problem is that the republican party nominates clowns that have diverse faces, bluestate10 Nov 2012 #114
Texas Hispanics HATE that Cuban carpetbagger. jsr Nov 2012 #124
Sounds good to me. diane in sf Nov 2012 #131
41% of Texas voted Democratic (for the president) Fearless Nov 2012 #132
He says that like it's a bad thing! jmowreader Nov 2012 #133
One party rule is ALWAYS bad for any country. GreenStormCloud Nov 2012 #135

w8liftinglady

(23,278 posts)
2. Three million Texans voted for Paul Sadler.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:24 PM
Nov 2012

He should be scared.... very scared.
Texas is turning blue.

w8liftinglady

(23,278 posts)
38. True.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:47 PM
Nov 2012

which is why we need to work on registering MORE people to vote for the next election cycle.

Botany

(70,508 posts)
5. the demographics are brutal for the GOP
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:26 PM
Nov 2012

piss off women, blacks, gays, latinos, teachers, environmentalists,
the young, labor, and democrats and not unless you are suppressing and or
manipulating the vote you will be a minor party in the future.

Hamlette

(15,412 posts)
61. interesting stats on Texas:
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:32 PM
Nov 2012

In fact, if Texas Latinos participated in politics at the same rates they do in other Latino-rich states—California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona—then Texas would already be a swing state. Texas has about the same percentage of Latinos as California. If they had turned out at the same rates as Anglos in 2008, 1.2 million more Latinos would have voted, according to Census figures. McCain beat Obama in Texas by 951,000 votes.

snip

The Democrats have been out of the game for so long in Texas — having not elected anyone to statewide office since 1994 — that the party hasn’t been pouring in the money necessary to build a strong voter turnout effort. They just don’t seem to think the demographics have made matters close enough that it’s worth spending those resources. But are they taking the demographic shift for granted, and not acting as quickly as they should?

If [D.C-based Democratic consultant] Mike Lux is right, some day in the next decade a bunch of Democratic consultants in Washington will look at Texas’ demographics, nod at each other, and say, “Okay, it’s time.” Lux estimates that it would take “tens of millions” of dollars to pay for the sort of Colorado-style effort that could flip the state. But at some point, he thinks, the national Democrats will decide the reward is worth the money.

http://frontburner.dmagazine.com/2012/09/27/when-will-texas-turn-blue-or-purple/

I remember hearing at one point that if you can get someone to vote for your party for three elections in a row you have them for life. Maybe now is the time to drop some coin in Texas ala Deans 50 state solution.

My bet is the GOP will make a huge push to court the Latinos beginning now thinking it is the best was to victory. They can't court women because too many right wing fundies will still want bad abortion laws so being nice to brown people only pisses off racists which they have to do. Here's hoping the GOP is as stupid the next 4 years as they have been this election cycle.

Dustlawyer

(10,495 posts)
77. I have been saying it for years that the DNC
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:02 PM
Nov 2012

needs to adopt the 50 state strategy. The Hispanics in Tx are so dirt poor, voting does not seem important. Charismatic Hispanic candidates like the Mayor of San Antonio and his brother could wake them up! By next election we could vote them ALL out! Bring it on!

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)
117. I got the email address from your link. I will be making contact with that group.
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:49 AM
Nov 2012

I can't contribute time, but I can contribute money.

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)
118. Let's hope that he is a full roasted Teanut ala Allen West. Let him grandstand, then get taken out
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:52 AM
Nov 2012

in six years.

Response to cali (Original post)

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
15. Well, I really doubt he is worried about TX going blue any time soon.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:33 PM
Nov 2012

Considering he won by 15 points.

 

truebluegreen

(9,033 posts)
45. They are pretty close to being written in stone:
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:52 PM
Nov 2012

it would require a constitutional amendment to change them.

Can you imagine the teabaggers supporting a constitutional amendment in order for an Hispanic to run for President?

 

truebluegreen

(9,033 posts)
102. Born on US soil doesn't matter.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 07:27 PM
Nov 2012

According to the courts, there are two kinds of citizens: natural-born and naturalized. If you are a citizen and didn't have to go through the naturalization process then you are the former.

Children born overseas to American parents, military or ex-pats or whatever, are natural-born, like John McCain. If Cruz' mother was a citizen at the time of his birth, it's likely he is too. At worst, he had the option at the age of 18 to choose American or Canadian citizenship.

 

awoke_in_2003

(34,582 posts)
108. Yeah, I just refreshed my memory...
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 10:54 PM
Nov 2012

I cannot find any info on whether his father was a citizen in 1970. He fled Cuba in 57, but that is all I can find.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
112. There might be some debate, but he probably isn't disqualified from being president, since
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:19 AM
Nov 2012

his mother was a US citizen.

 

truebluegreen

(9,033 posts)
136. Yes, assuming his mother hadn't given up her citizenship.
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:22 PM
Nov 2012

And it doesn't have to be both parents: Obama would have been an American citizen even if he had been born in Kenya, because his mother was. Again, at worst, at 18 he could choose (silly teabaggers, eh?).

BTW, George Romney would NOT have been eligible for the presidency, because his forebears DID renounce their citizenship when they fled to Mexico to avoid anti-poligamy laws (there's still a bunch of Romneys down there, along with others).

Romney was of course eligible regardless of his fathers' status, because he was born in Michigan, where the trees are the right height. Edited to add: Think of him as an anchor baby!

 

Ter

(4,281 posts)
121. It has never been addressed regarding the presidency
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 01:04 AM
Nov 2012

To me, it's clear. You have to be born in the US, and even if you are, at least one parent must be born here too. So Rubio can't run either.

 

truebluegreen

(9,033 posts)
137. Not correct.
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:27 PM
Nov 2012

It has never been specifically addressed regarding the presidency because it didn't need to be. The courts don't make rulings for the fun of it, and all previous case law and precedent backs up what I said.

And one parent does NOT have to be born here--aren't you familiar with the (lovely)(reich-wing) term "Anchor Baby?"

If you are born here, you are a citizen, period.

 

Chan790

(20,176 posts)
36. Running for the US Senate has a lower requirement standard than the Presidency.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:47 PM
Nov 2012

- At least 30 years of age
- A citizen of the US for at least 9 years
- A resident of the state your representing

Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_are_the_requirements_to_run_for_the_US_Senate#ixzz2C1mThbKC

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
43. I know all that.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:51 PM
Nov 2012

But there was even talk about Arnold S. running for president some years ago. Maybe Cruz thinks the rules can be changed.

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)
56. Cruz is NOT an idiot. He is immoral, he's spiteful, and he's bigoted, but he's not stupid.Your worst
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:06 PM
Nov 2012

nightmare is Cruz on the SCOTUS, which is his goal (not POTUS, an office for which he is ineligible).

Cruz is a clever bastard with despicably selfish values. He's Paul Ryan with a law degree and the cunning to abuse it.

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)
111. At Princeton, Cruz was a national champion debater. He graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:17 AM
Nov 2012

School, where he was an editor of the Harvard Law Review, the Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy, and the Harvard Latino Law Review. After law school, Cruz clerked for the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals and the Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court, where he was the first Hispanic ever to clerk for any Chief Justice in the history of the SCOTUS. Cruz was also the first Hispanic Solicitor General in Texas, the youngest Solicitor General in the United States, and he served for the longest period of time as Solicitor in Texas history. He has had a very successful legal career (winning tough cases you and I wish he had lost).

You may call him an idiot if it makes you feel comfortable to pin that label on him, but he is not stupid by any conventional definition of the word, and I would question the wisdom of underestimating your enemy's strengths.

 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
139. That's quite a resume, I agree. I am basing my opinion on how unintelligent he was during the
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 11:49 PM
Nov 2012

debate with Sadler. He has very bad ideas and he couldn't defend them at all. This struck me as stupid no to prepare by coming up with a defense.

But, point well taken

 

OffWithTheirHeads

(10,337 posts)
12. And we are working real hard on Arizona too. Real close this year.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:30 PM
Nov 2012

Maybe even closer if they ever finish counting the votes.

Filibuster Harry

(666 posts)
16. Arizona too?
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:33 PM
Nov 2012

GOP may have a problem with Arizona too. It could turn sooner than Texas.
Interesting to see just how soon these states could be in play.

 

truebluegreen

(9,033 posts)
39. Any word on the vote count there in Arizona
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:48 PM
Nov 2012

and the massive number of provisional ballots? I bet Arizona is already purple.

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)
122. I think Arizona will turn blue in 2016 and stay that way. The state has a rising Hispanic AND
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 01:06 AM
Nov 2012

Asian populations and has a core of liberal/moderate Whites that is sizable. Arizona could very well end up with a democratic US Senator this year once all votes are counted, if that happens, the GOP takes a massive blow with one of it's golden boys losing.

Indpndnt

(2,391 posts)
17. Nearly 42% of the votes here went to Obama. Texas WILL go blue in the next decade or so.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:35 PM
Nov 2012

Of course, that doesn't fit the narrative of many here at DU who love to tell us to secede. Maybe they should get off their high horses and move to Texas. We'd go blue a lot faster. But that wouldn't be as 'funny' and would require them to actually do something to earn the 38 electoral votes here. I moved here from a very blue state and it is a lot nicer here than there.

For this one and only time, I will agree with Cruz: The republic party will soon be as relevant here as the Whigs.

txdemsftw

(461 posts)
19. Yep!
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:38 PM
Nov 2012

They only see what they wanna see. Guess in their minds, the majority of us are still riding around on our horses with our guns strapped to our hips.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
22. Cruz is a tea party republican elected to senate by a huge margin.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:40 PM
Nov 2012

I very much doubt he is actually worried about TX turning blue any time soon.
If TX was turning blue, it would not be electing a tea party republican to senate.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
47. What does that have to do with a price of tea in china?
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:54 PM
Nov 2012

One would expect to see close margins in a swing state.
In TX, neither Obama nor Sadler came anywhere close.
We are talking about 15 point margins here.
And Cruz is a tea party republican, not a moderate republican.

Indpndnt

(2,391 posts)
51. Because, like I said, you are seeing something much different than the other Texans here.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:59 PM
Nov 2012

Your thoughts about Cruz and Dem chances are very interesting. If you do live here, it must be in a deep red county in the back of beyond without a view of trending demographics.

And I'd love to have some tea from China for every time you've said "15 point margin" in this thread.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
53. And what is it that you are seeing?
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:01 PM
Nov 2012

How can TX be turning blue any time soon when Obama lost here by a huge margin?
And a tea party republican was elected to senate.

Indpndnt

(2,391 posts)
57. Exactly what everyone has said throughout this entire thread & in the article.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:11 PM
Nov 2012

Did you read any of it? Demographics are rapidly changing. There will be a stronger GOTV effort from now on. Some repubs here are finding their own party too extreme. And no, no matter how many times you push it in this thread, nobody is going to change the United States Constitution so Ted Cruz, American mommy or not, can run for POTUS.

MagickMuffin

(15,942 posts)
73. Perhaps lil Teddy won by the Latino-Latina population voting for him
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:34 PM
Nov 2012


Perhaps they did out of name recognition when they voted and saw his name on the ballot and didn't even consider his "teabagger" policies.

I know a woman (latina) here (in Texas) who would have voted for Perry as president (if he would have been the nominee) just because he was from Texas. No other reason. Just because he is from Texas!

Tarrant County is now sending the first African American to the House of Rep's. We still have a long way to go here but we KNOW how important it is to GOTV.

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)
59. I don't see Texas turning blue any time soon either. I see a breakthrough (not a sea change) in 2020
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:28 PM
Nov 2012

when I expect us to win a few statewide offices for the first time since dinosaurs roamed the plains, and -- maybe we will be able to call Texas as a key 50%-50% "swing state" in 2024.

Do you see it happening sooner than that? If so, I'd love to see your data because I wish the swing would come sooner, but I just cannot make a quicker timetable fit with the election data we have.

Look at the actual returns. We are not on the verge of tipping blue. The trend is good, but it is a slow trend. Texas is at least 4 years (and maybe 8 years) behind Arizona, and Arizona is not close to being a swing state yet. Plus, Texas is a big and expensive market to run for office in and so there is a much bigger infrastructural hurdle for us to overcome in Texas than in Arizona.


Texas will turn blue -- just as surely as Nixon's and Reagan's California turned blue -- but it will take quite a few election cycles.

Indpndnt

(2,391 posts)
71. Incremental, not "sea change" is a start. "Go blue" is a process and it will happen.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:07 PM
Nov 2012

But that's if, and only if, there is a massive GOTV effort here. Demographics mean nothing without votes. However, I do see up and comers like the Castro brothers stirring up a great deal of interest here. If we can stir up the Dems who feel their votes don't matter much here and add that to a strong GOTV movement, there will be hope by 2022-24.

Agree on Arizona, as well, although I hope we can catch up quickly by avoiding the types of difficulties they are currently experiencing with voting, provisional ballots, and the counting of those votes nearly a week post-election. However, I can see the Texas GOP trying that. If they won't stop redistricting us into pretzels, they aren't about to make voting any easier, either, I'm sure.

I like that line: "Texas will turn blue -- just as surely as Nixon's and Reagan's California turned blue..." Gonna have to steal that!

lobointexas

(85 posts)
89. Texas also has very low voter turnout!
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 04:54 PM
Nov 2012

There are a lot of democratic votes to be had if there was some help from the National Party. If Texas goes blue, game over, so you would think it would be worth the investment.

Even though it's an old article, it has some good information on voting in Texas.

http://goarticles.com/article/Texas-Voters/2017974/

Texas has one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the United States. Since the year 2000 hit it has dropped farther and farther down the list and now ranks fifth to last since the 2008 election.

snip

One of the biggest reason for low voter turnout in the State of Texas goes back mainly to socioeconomic factors. Since Texas has such a high poverty level there are naturally a lot of people who are too worried about money to be concerned with voting. This also contributes to the reason most minorities do not vote in the state of Texas. Since three out of ten people who fall into the minority category in Texas are considered at the poverty level, there is bound to be a decrease in minority voter turnout (Kolsti, 2006). It appears that people who are in poverty do not turn out to vote. This might has something to do with the lack of education among those who sit at the poverty level. In the state of Texas "one of five Texans over the age of twenty-five never graduated from high school (Wlezien, 2003)." People who have not achieved a high school diploma are five times less likely to vote than those who have graduated or at least obtained their GED or high school equivalence. Thus, if Texas has a high percentage of impoverish adults and adults with a limited education, the state becomes more likely to have a low voter turnout rate compared to other states were there is a lower poverty level such as Minnesota, which also has a higher rate of high school graduates (Kolsti, 2006).

Indpndnt

(2,391 posts)
94. Exactly! We need the Obama GOTV method to be put to work here!
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 05:23 PM
Nov 2012

Just as you said, "If Texas goes blue, game over..." And it is definitely worth the investment. They've laid the groundwork in other states for this election. Now we need them to help with Texas for the next. It may be huge, but with 38 electoral votes, it's worth every penny and effort. And that's just for the presidential race. We need those House seats, too, along with those in the Senate.

Good article, btw. Never saw that one. Thanks!

txdemsftw

(461 posts)
96. Exactly..
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 05:45 PM
Nov 2012

and that's the thing...we already know that Dems can win without Texas..but my gosh, we could win EASILY WITH Texas and not have to worry about so many other states and the crap that goes on there.

GOTV people...!! It takes WORK!

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)
99. We'll need a massive GOTV effort at first, but once the boulder starts rolling it will pick up speed
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 06:02 PM
Nov 2012

and momentum.

We always do much better in presidential election years so 2014 and 2018 are not likely to present our breakthrough election cycles.

The change is slow in coming, so 2016 may be too soon to expect a newly rejuvenated Democratic state party to overcome so many years of Repub political infrastructure.

I really think 2020 will be our big year (with some isolated bellwether victories in the interim foretelling of the big swing that is fast becoming inevitable).

txdemsftw

(461 posts)
100. I agree with you..
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 06:04 PM
Nov 2012

I am holding out for 2020 or maybe even 2024...but sooner would be wonderful, but I'm not getting my hopes up TOO much. We need to be realistic, but we need to make a much bigger effort.

lobointexas

(85 posts)
101. I'm not so sure.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 06:28 PM
Nov 2012

Yes it will take a massive effort, and yes it goes against the odds, but if Rick Perry runs for governor again, I think people will mobilize for change. I know a lot of republicans that think Perry made an ass of himself and embarrassed Texas during the primary's. If Julian Castro runs for Governor, I think he can beat him. Also, Castro may be, or is, one of the future stars of the Democratic Party and may hold higher aspirations, ie. the Presidency. I think this would be reason for Obama's team and National Democrats to seriously look at Texas, maybe as soon as 2014. If we could keep the excitement of this election going strong, maybe, just maybe. Look at what happened to the 2004 keynote speaker at the Democratic Convention. It won't be easy, and Democrats will need help but it can be done. The pool of non-voters is bigger here than anywhere else in the country, and 41% voting for President Obama, with no field offices, no advertising, and no visits, is pretty impressive to me, but I may be wrong.

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)
103. There were major GOTV efforts in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, McAllen, Corpus Christi, Austin, etc.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 07:37 PM
Nov 2012

While none of these efforts were based on the presidential race, the statewide votes across the whole ballot reflect that we have work to do as illustrated by the votes in 2012:

57.20% - Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan
41.36% - Barack Obama/Joe Biden

56.63% - Ted Cruz
40.45% - Paul Sadler

56.18% - Christi Craddick
39.58% - Dale Henry

53.73% - Nathan Hecht
41.88% - Michele Petty

55.51% - Sharon Keller
41.22% - Keith Hampton


These results are only a marginal improvement (on average) over the statewide results in 2010 (we actually lost ground at the top of the ticker from 2010 to 2012 but we've made some down-ballot progress since then):

54.97% - Rick Perry
42.29% - Bill White

61.78% - David Dewhurst
34.83% - Linda Chavez-Thompson

64.05% - Greg Abbott
33.66% - Barbara Ann Radnofsky

59.87% - Debra Lehrmann
37.26% - Jim Sharp


More troubling is the trend which shows no statewide improvement from 2008 (actually, we have slipped backward a bit since 2008):

55.45% - John McCain/Sarah Palin
43.68% - Barack Obama/Joe Biden

54.82% - John Cornyn
42.83% - Richard J. (Rick) Noriega

52.13% - Michael L. Williams
44.35% - Mark Thompson

51.09% - Dale Wainwright
45.88% - Sam Houston

51.64% - Tom Price
45.53% - Susan Strawn


I would love to share your optimism, but these numbers have a real world significance we would be foolish to ignore. We cannot fix the problem until we diagnose the problem and understand the magnitude of our task.

lobointexas

(85 posts)
107. I agree that it seems impossible in the short term.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 08:00 PM
Nov 2012

I'm only basing my optimism on the potential of new voters, in which Texas has Millions!! Where you said there were massive GOTV efforts, I believe, and correct me if I'm wrong, they all went for President Obama. Now if we could have that GOTV in every county, city, and town, we could possibly have the same results. I live in a very red county, and there was literally no GOTV effort. I'm not saying that we could do this overnight, but when it comes to changing a red state to blue, Texas is the number one candidate.

ThomThom

(1,486 posts)
48. a couple more summers like the last two and everyone will be leaving Tx
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:55 PM
Nov 2012

golf courses are already drying up and cattle ranching a thing of the past

Indpndnt

(2,391 posts)
55. It sure has gotten toasty, hasn't it? And the wildfires were terrifying.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:04 PM
Nov 2012

But, then, that's also true in the Midwest this year. Plus, the East Coast just got slammed by Hurricane Sandy. Where would everyone go? If I lived in the NE where I spent the first 25 years of my life, I'd still be without power. No, thanks. This is home.

txdemsftw

(461 posts)
18. I know a hell of a lot of Republicans in TX,
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:35 PM
Nov 2012

and most of them are NOT happy with the current party. They find these Repuke pols today even too extreme for THEM, and that is saying a lot since most here are Repubs due to religious views.

If the Republican party keeps on doing what they're doing, they will cease to exist within my lifetime. There will ALWAYS be plenty of bible-thumping assholes in this state, but my generation and younger are changing this state, as well as the Latino and African-Americans...

Texas was blue before and it will be again. Visit the major metro areas here and you will see it is much different than the rednecks living in the rural areas. I cannot wait to see that happen.

 

Panasonic

(2,921 posts)
21. Then quit and concede the election to Paul Sadler
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:40 PM
Nov 2012

You fucking idiot.

If you are scared of Texas going blue, then why the fuck are you a Latino and a Republican - even worse, A Tea Party fucknut?

Get back to me when you fucking figure it out.



sadbear

(4,340 posts)
54. You're putting the birthers in a very tight spot there.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:04 PM
Nov 2012


The only difference is that we know, without a shred of doubt, that Cruz WAS NOT born in the U.S.

I can see heads exploding right now.

Hell, I'm with you, LisaL. Cruz SHOULD run for president, if only so that we can see how the birthers react to it.

smaug

(230 posts)
60. The cynical position
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:32 PM
Nov 2012

Cruz is a reTHUGlikkklan because he faces less competition as a Latino in that party. This occurred to me because of what I had an African-American repub in college tell me years ago. And no, his name wasn't Clarence :|

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
24. I would love to have Democrat Texans return to every Congressional seat.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:40 PM
Nov 2012

If Cruz holds to his TP ways, he just might be in trouble. The TP is not what the majority of Americans backs. I voted against him and will do so in the future, he does not hold my values.

Avalux

(35,015 posts)
26. Cruz is a crazy-assed tea partier and it makes me sick he won.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:41 PM
Nov 2012

But he's right - Texas WILL be blue in about 10 years or so, if I and every other Dem in this state have anything to do with it!

txdemsftw

(461 posts)
29. It would certainly help if we didn't have so many
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:44 PM
Nov 2012

damn Dems here who don't bother to vote because they figure we'll lose anyway.

THAT has to change. We need some more support down here and some better attitudes.

So, for every Dem who bothered to vote..THANK YOU and to all who voted for Cruz...FU.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
34. Because they are not encouraged due to absence of any real GOTV in TX.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:46 PM
Nov 2012

So they think their vote does not matter.
You have to be self-motivated to vote in TX. If we actually want to turn it blue, democratic party needs to start spending some money and effort here.

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)
126. Some else posted the Facebook link to this email address above, try getting in touch.
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 01:19 AM
Nov 2012

Volunteers@turntexasblue2014.com

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)
125. Better to start with a grass roots effort. Our national party people are so fucking dense
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 01:18 AM
Nov 2012

at seeing opportunity, with the exception of Howard Dean. Dean should be made head of the DNC again, if not Dean then may be the Mayor of Los Angeles will see the importance of putting organizations into Texas, now, today. Arizona, Texas and Florida should be priorities starting today. We must fight in other states like Ohio, Iowa, Virginia and North Carolina too.

Indpndnt

(2,391 posts)
41. True, that. ALL of it!
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:49 PM
Nov 2012

Plus, there really wasn't a lot of info. out there about the Senate race, so there's a good chance folks really didn't know much about their two choices. If one of the Castro brothers decides to run, I can see that changing drastically. We need Obama's GOTV strategy here from now on.

BeyondGeography

(39,374 posts)
35. Don't worry, Ted, I'm sure they'll change the rules for ya
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:46 PM
Nov 2012

Newfangled ways to calculate EV's, tossing aside supervisory provisions of the Voting Rights Act, other forms of suppression...it's not over yet!

99Forever

(14,524 posts)
42. I fail to see the problem with this, Mr Senator.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 12:50 PM
Nov 2012

Maybe then we can crawl out of the 19th Century that bigoted, misogynistic dinosaurs like you want keep us in.

laundry_queen

(8,646 posts)
62. He clearly doesn't know how this whole '2 party' thing works.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:34 PM
Nov 2012

If that happens - Texas goes bright blue, then the Republicans have to chase the Democrats TO THE LEFT. If the Republicans instead decide to stay tea party wingnut crazy, then yes, they will be left behind. If they moderate their message and get rid of the crazies they have a fighting chance. Idiot.

Brother Buzz

(36,434 posts)
67. One of theses days, one of the Castro brothers is going to lock horns with this ass
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:53 PM
Nov 2012

And if I was a betting man.....

 

Arugula Latte

(50,566 posts)
68. FYI, Cruz, you're also in a world of hurt if Florida tips solidly blue.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:57 PM
Nov 2012

Gee, my heart just bleeds for you and your party. Who knew that being extremist and constantly sneering at everyone but white male Christians wouldn't be a winning strategy in the long run?

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)
127. Florida seems to be in that space now. Three of the last four Presidential elections, it went blue
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 01:25 AM
Nov 2012

or came close. The democrats winning margins were mush larger than the republican margins. If I remember, Florida went for Clinton at least once.

ceile

(8,692 posts)
75. That is probably the smartest thing I've ever heard him say.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:39 PM
Nov 2012

It will be another decade or so, but we'll get there.

ffr

(22,670 posts)
79. Senator, we're working on it.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:08 PM
Nov 2012


And a bunch of other states too. Montana looks like a possible candidate we'll be looking into as well.



barbtries

(28,795 posts)
81. i'll be happy the day
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:14 PM
Nov 2012

the republic party goes the way of the whigs and the tories and look forward to a more progressive party gaining viability when that occurs. i hope it will happen in my life time.

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)
128. Yes, when the democratic party still had lots of segregationists in it.
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 01:27 AM
Nov 2012

The goal should be to make a modern Texas blue, knowing what it being blue means today.

 

Swede Atlanta

(3,596 posts)
84. The only way they can keep that from happening is if......
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:36 PM
Nov 2012

They recognize that the demographics are changing and they identify those policies or core beliefs that are accessible in the new environment.

For example, I think there are a lot of voters that are concerned about the long term deficit but recognize that in the near-term it is imprudent to reduce expenditures. In fact it might be prudent to increase spending temporarily in the areas of education, job training and infrastructure as well as support for things like loan modifications, etc. At the same time they need to acknowledge that more revenue is needed. Come with an honest and sincere proposal for increasing revenue. Right now that MUST include allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire for the very wealthy. That means taxes for the uber-wealthy will increase somewhat. But leave the cuts in place for those people that will actually inject that savings directly into the economy through spending. The uber-wealthy don't create jobs with those cuts. They might buy a slightly larger boat or jet airplane but they don't increase their spending. They spend however they want anyway because of their relative wealth.

then lay out a plan for long-term deficit reduction. That should include a simplification of the tax code but not the "Fair Tax". It should include reducing or eliminating certain deductions. It must include a re-assessment of our national security and defense needs. The national security infrastructure has ballooned. I'm not suggesting an increase in expenditure and a focus on this area wasn't needed but do we need everything? Do we need to listen in on every phone call and read every e-mail? As Obama said in the debate we don't measure our security in the number of ships in the Navy but their capability and adaptation for the current threat environment. We must long-term reduce military spending.

Don't fight the ACA but rather promote those things that were originally conservative proposals. Continue to challenge and seek improvement in those areas that conservatives want. Obama never said there couldn't be changes but the underlying concept of giving everyone ACCESS to affordable health insurance and therefore healthcare is not negotiable.

What about stopping the culture wars? True conservatives want government out of people's personal lives. No one SUPPORTS abortion or wants it. But it should remain legal. Instead of battling so hard against abortion, conservatives could lay out proposals to provide young women with meaningful access to birth control and, in the event of a pregnancy, policies that ensure she and the baby get appropriate pre-natal care, that if she has to take time off from her job after delivery she has reasonable PAID maternity leave. Then ensure that she and the child have access to healthcare, that the child has a decent roof over its head, lives in a safe environment, has adequate food. Then that the child gets a decent "basic" education to position him/her for success. Give them a means to get higher education or job training. The list goes on and on.

Don't fight women's healthcare. Don't try to dictate what a gay man or lesbian can or cannot do. Support marriage equality and non-discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation.

Stop demeaning immigrants and non-whites. The demographics are changing. Come forward with meaningful proposals for dealing with our immigration challenges, not just "self-deportation".

Stop supporting the wealthy and Wall Street, carte blanche, a la Ayn Rand. They plan an important role in our economy but it cannot all be Wall Street and not Main Street.

Help American companies invest in R&D and to compete on the global stage.

Stop denigrating anyone that is not a "Christian" in your own view.

Okay..I'll stop ranting but the point is the party will NOT survive if it holds to its current Caucasian, patriarchal, Ayn-Randian policies. The populace has moved beyond that.

Even as a Democrat I would welcome them evolving over time. A democracy needs engagement between parties. One-party rule is disastrous. Even a small country like Sweden has 8 political parties represented in the Parliament.

txdemsftw

(461 posts)
88. I just have to say once again..
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 04:29 PM
Nov 2012

if the Dems would spend some damn money in this state to GOTV, we'd be in a lot better shape.

I agree with one of the posts above...we have a lot of latinos here who don't vote who could really tip the scale in our favor. We can't expect miracles to happen if no effort is being given.

Our cities here are diverse and there are a lot of people here who are sick of what we have now. We need to start by getting Rick Perry's bible-thumping ass out, elect more Dems in local/state offices, and get more Dems in Washington. That starts by GOTV and we need help with that.

PoliticalBiker

(328 posts)
97. LOLOLOLOL!!!
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 05:47 PM
Nov 2012

The republicrat party needs to go the way of the Whigs anyway... and the Do-Do and the T-Rex and the Mastadon and the.... well you get the picture.

Republicrats are terrorists. Their actions paint them as terrorists. Their words paint them as terrorists.

I remember when Imus was expelled from radio for making a disparaging remark about a black womens basketball team.
With what Rush the Limburger says every day, why is he still around?

Republicrats are terrorists

Incitatus

(5,317 posts)
104. +1
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 07:37 PM
Nov 2012

You know how sometimes the last post in a thread was almost exactly what you wanted to say? The first part, anyway. Although I completely agree with the rest.

Bucky

(54,013 posts)
105. More Republican skills at reading polling & demographic data.
Mon Nov 12, 2012, 07:43 PM
Nov 2012

Texas Dems, I'm sorry to say, are at least a dozen years away from being competitive on the statewide ballot. Unless the GOP has some game-changing meltdown, they own this place. Like Kenyan birth certificates, a socialized economy, UN blue helmets, secret black helicopters, and gun confiscations, the Republicans now continue their unbroken title of Best at Worrying About Shit that Won't Ever Happen.

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)
129. Texas need to find democrats that have balls, like Ann Richards, even though she was a woman.
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 01:33 AM
Nov 2012

The Castro brothers look good, if they stay clean, which will be hard with money being thrown at them. I would like to see one of them take on Cruz, or before than Corzine. More importantly, the Castro brothers are inspiring lots of starry eyed Texas children of all races and ethnic groups to think progressive and big.

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)
114. The problem is that the republican party nominates clowns that have diverse faces,
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 12:27 AM
Nov 2012

like Allen West of Florida, Scott of South Carolina, Cruz of Texas, female candidates from deep red states, Rubio of Florida. You can get knifed by a person that don't look like you or knifed by a person that does look like you, you get knifed regardless.

Fearless

(18,421 posts)
132. 41% of Texas voted Democratic (for the president)
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 06:15 AM
Nov 2012

Just 9 more percent and we're there. Perhaps 2016? Definitely 2020 based on population trends and the reliability of the Latino population to tend Democratic.

GreenStormCloud

(12,072 posts)
135. One party rule is ALWAYS bad for any country.
Tue Nov 13, 2012, 10:46 AM
Nov 2012

The Whigs died as a party and the Republican Party was born. If the Republican Party dies, the leftovers will unite with a faction of the Democratic Party and form a new party that will be viable. I will no make any attempt to speculate on what their uniting issues may be.

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