Is Gen Z Coming for the GOP?

[brooklynite]

The Atlantic

en z is poised to massively expand its influence in the 2024 election. But its impact may be more complex than typically assumed.

As many as 7 million to 9 million more members of the racially and culturally diverse Gen Z could cast ballots in 2024 than did in 2020, while the number of the predominantly white Baby Boomers and older generations voting may decline by a corresponding amount, according to nonpartisan forecasts. As a result, for the first time, Gen Z and Millennials combined could account for as many votes next year as the Baby Boomers and their elders—the groups that have made up a majority of voters for decades.

That generational transition represents a clear opportunity for Democrats, who have consistently amassed solid, sometimes overwhelming, margins among both Millennials and Gen Z voters. But an analysis of previously unpublished election data from Catalist, a Democratic targeting firm, by Michael Podhorzer, the former political director for the AFL-CIO, shows that even the emergence of these new voters may not break the larger political stalemate that has partitioned the country into seemingly immovable blocks of red and blue states.

Podhorzer’s analysis of the Catalist data, shared exclusively with The Atlantic, found that over the past four elections, Gen Z voters have broken heavily for Democrats in blue states, and provided the party solid margins in closely contested swing states. But in red states, with a few prominent exceptions, Podhorzer surprisingly found that even Gen Z voters are mostly supporting Republicans.

The generation’s strong Democratic lean in blue and purple states may create growing challenges for Republicans trying to amass the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House. But the Republican tilt of younger voters in red states could frustrate Democrats trying to loosen the GOP’s hold on those places. That seemingly unbreakable Republican grip has made it difficult for Democrats to win majorities in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, and has allowed the GOP to impose a sweepingly conservative social agenda across nearly half of the country.

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Speaks to politics as emotion for young, inexperienced, and often uneducated voters

Youth waver, and go with their peers, family, and cultural flow. Seniors less so. Red states are unreachable. I doubt we'll crack that egg. Until you take their beer and wheels.

[Sky Jewels]

2. "Not all" red states are unreachable.

George was solid red until recently. Same with Arizona.

[SomedayKindaLove]

5. And Virginia before that

[Sky Jewels]

7. Right!

I used to live in DC in the early-mid 90s. I had a good feeling about visiting Maryland, but I was always sort of freaked out by Virginia, because it still felt a bit like "enemy" territory. I think I'd get a very different vibe if I went there today, especially to northern VA.

[maxsolomon]

3. I sure hope so.

the Zs i am related to are to the left of Dems. my niece, for instance, voted for Pelosi's primary challenger.

[MineralMan]

4. Gen Z, like all generations is diverse in its politics.

I can't imagine that comes as a surprise to anyone, though.

[Beartracks]

6. "allowed the GOP to impose a sweepingly conservative social agenda...

... across nearly half of the country" -- even though far less than half the country actually supports such an agenda. Republicans have, through decades of shameless partisan action and propaganda networks, become WAY over-represented at nearly every level of government in the country.

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