The U.S. and Europe Are Splitting Over Ukraine

[Celerity]

The GOP’s populist wing would abandon Kyiv—and endanger the world’s most successful military alliance.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/europe-united-states-international-relations-decoupling/675211/

https://archive.ph/qlKTZ



Europe and the United States are on the verge of the most momentous conscious uncoupling in international relations in decades. Since 1949, NATO has been the one constant in world security. Initially an alliance among the United States, Canada, and 10 countries in Western Europe, NATO won the Cold War and has since expanded to include almost all of Europe. It has been the single most successful security grouping in modern global history. It also might collapse by 2025.

The cause of this collapse would be the profound difference in outlook between the Republican Party’s populist wing—which is led by Donald Trump but now clearly makes up the majority of the GOP—and the existential security concerns of much of Europe. The immediate catalyst for the collapse would be the war in Ukraine. When the dominant faction within one of the two major American political parties can’t see the point in helping a democracy-minded country fight off Russian invaders, that suggests that the center of the political spectrum has shifted in ways that will render the U.S. a less reliable ally to Europe. The latter should prepare accordingly.

Read: What America’s great unwinding would mean for the world

The past few weeks have revealed that Trump’s pro-Russian, anti-NATO outlook isn’t just a brief interlude in Republican politics; suspicion of American involvement in supporting Ukraine is now the consensus of the party’s populist heart. During last week’s GOP presidential debate, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy—the two candidates most intent on appealing to the party’s new Trumpist base—both argued against more aid for Ukraine. DeSantis did so softly, by vowing to make any more aid conditional on greater European assistance and saying he’d rather send troops to the U.S.-Mexico border. Ramaswamy was more strident: He described the current situation as “disastrous” and called for a complete and immediate cessation of U.S. support for Ukraine. Ramaswamy later went even further, basically saying that Ukraine should be cut up; Vladimir Putin would get to keep a large part of the country. Trump did not take part in the debate, but he has previously downplayed America’s interest in an Ukrainian victory and has seemed to favor territorial concessions by Ukraine to Russia. He, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy are all playing to the same voters—who, polls suggest, make up about three-quarters of the Republican electorate.

Another bellwether is the Heritage Foundation, a prominent conservative think tank that has played an outsize role in GOP policy circles since the Reagan years. Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion, in February 2022, Heritage had been on the hawkish wing of the Republican Party, even publishing a call for Ukraine to be accepted into NATO. More recently, Heritage officials have called for halting aid until the Biden administration produces a plan to end the war—which is an impossible goal unless Russia agrees. Demagogues on the right are taking Putin’s side even more overtly. The talk-show host Tucker Carlson, for instance, in a August address in Budapest, maintained that anti-Christian bias motivated American opposition to Russia.

Link to tweet

snip

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. I don't see it that way- the US people stand with Ukraine

It’s just the RW think tanks that are trying to split the US from NATO.

[Celerity]

2. Even if Joe Biden wins reelection, Republican control of the House, Senate, or both could

substantially weaken U.S. support for the Ukrainian effort. And if Trump or one of his imitators wins the presidency in November 2024, Europe could find itself faced with a new American administration that will halt all support for Ukraine. Such a move would make the U.S. itself an obstacle to a long-term free and stable Europe. It would split the Atlantic alliance, and European states have not prepared themselves for that possibility. The reality is that, for many years, Europe has largely slipstreamed behind the U.S. on security matters. This has provided real benefits to the U.S., by solidifying American leadership in the world’s most important strategic grouping while allowing European states to spend far less on defense than they would otherwise have to. The differential also means that Europe, on its own, lacks the breadth and depth of U.S. military capabilities.

much more in the article

[brush]

4. Biden will win and repubs hold on the House is tenuous.

NATO is not dead yet.

[Celerity]

6. The Senate map is dire for us.

[brush]

12. We're not done yet. I think trump's legal woes...

and likely at least one conviction, will negatively affect republican Senate and House races.

trump will most likely win the repug nomination but not the WH. DeSantis has proven to be a dud and Ramaswamy, Haley, Christie and the rest are running for VP at best.

Outcomes hinge on trump's legal future. And that doesn't look good for republicans.

We're not beaten yet.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. That's a lot of "if's"

If Biden wins, and Dems keep the senate (which will no longer have Manchin and Sinema) and retake the house, Ukraine will get continued support from the US and NATO.

[Celerity]

23. Odds are low we retain the Senate.The Rethugs only defend 10 seats, all in Red (FL) to deep Red

(the other 9) states. I doubt we flip any. On our side, Manchin is pretty likely toast (Justice has outflanked him on the left and the right).

That takes it to 50-50, so we have to sweep all the rest, 5 or 6 which are in real danger (plus of course win the VPOTUS, so Harris can break ties if we do sweep all but Manchin).

In the House, we will start off likely even further in the hole before a vote is cast, as the Rethugs' super gerrymandered new NC map will likely take it from a 7-7 current tie to probably 11 R - 3 Dem, or 10 R - 4 D at best. We also are losing some key members in swing to pinkish districts, like Katie Porter in CA and Slotkin in MI, who are both running for Senate, thus putting their frontline seats in the House in real danger.

It would certainly help if NY was able to unfuck itself from the decade plus Cuomo shenanigans (in his obsessive war on NYC liberals) that by itself led us to lose the US House in 2022. The NY US House map went from 21 D to 5 R D almost for sure, (and perhaps as high as 23 D -3 R) to only 15 D- 11 R after the conserbite Rethug judge allowed the special master to take hammer and tongs to it. That net loss of 12 to 16 seats cost us the House alone. I am afraid it will not be fixed for 2024 though.

In order, I feel best about Biden winning, then us hopefully pulling back the House. I am not optimistic about the Senate, unfortunately.

[Fiendish Thingy]

31. A year ago, I completely agreed with you

But now I am not certain about any particular outcome, and feel there are a multitude of possibilities.

[Recycle_Guru]

17. not happening. Even conservative hawks like Graham and Cornyn

know we need to fully support Ukraine/defeat Putin or at least help Russians defeat Putin

[wnylib]

30. Then we'd better work hard to give Biden a solid majority Dem Congress.

[BannonsLiver]

18. Neither do I

And all of the cutting and pasting in the world won’t change that.

[betsuni]

29. heh

[betsuni]

28. +1

[brush]

3. trump will be lucky to stay out of jail. He won't win the presidency again.

Americans against trump outnumber the magats, just as we did in 2020.

[Celerity]

7. Trump is not the only blocking mechanism.

see https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218242269#post2

[DFW]

5. This is only from my personal encounters

But my acquaintances in both the USA and the EU are solidly behind the Ukrainian effort to free its occupied territories and maintain its independence from Russia. Even a few Russians I know who now live in the West feel the same way. They can’t stand VVP, although they fear his successor, and probably with good reason.

[Celerity]

10. You, I and many others on here travel in very cosmopolitan circles that see, rightly so, an

interlocked world.

Foreign affairs has rarely been an issue that motivates the American people for extended periods of time. IF the economy goes south, for instance, nefarious forces will play the 'why are we wasting hundreds of billions overseas when Americans here at home are in dire straits' card, perhaps to great effect.

We already see some indicators of a change in mood:

CNN Poll: Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine in war with Russia

Most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, as the public splits over whether the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html

Overall, 55% say the US Congress should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine vs. 45% who say Congress should authorize such funding. And 51% say that the US has already done enough to help Ukraine while 48% say it should do more. A poll conducted in the early days of the Russian invasion in late February 2022 found 62% who felt the US should have been doing more. Partisan divisions have widened since that poll, too, with most Democrats and Republicans now on opposing sides of questions on the US role in Ukraine.

A majority, but not all (68%) of those who say the US should do more to support Ukraine favor additional funding, as do 23% of those who say the US has already done enough. When asked specifically about types of assistance the US could provide to Ukraine, there is broader support for help with intelligence gathering (63%) and military training (53%) than for providing weapons (43%), alongside very slim backing for US military forces to participate in combat operations (17%).

Most Americans who say the US should be doing more to support Ukraine are in favor of providing assistance in intelligence gathering (75%), military training (68%) and weapons (60%), while among those who say the US has already done enough, only intelligence gathering earns majority support (52%). A majority of Americans do express concern that Russia’s war in Ukraine will threaten US national security (56%), but that’s down significantly February 2022 (72% were worried about threats to US security then).

A bigger worry across partisan lines in the new poll is that the war will continue without a resolution for a long time. Nearly 8 in 10 are worried about that, including 82% of Democrats, 75% of independents and 73% of Republicans. Nearly two-thirds overall are concerned that the war in Ukraine will lead to increased threats to democracy elsewhere (65%) or lead to Russian attacks elsewhere (64%), and about 6 in 10 are worried it could lead to a broader war in Europe (59%).

snip

[DFW]

11. Europeans obviously don't want an eternally extended conflict, either

Putin, on the other hand, wants either the EU or the USA to tire of supporting the Ukrainians, in the hope of weakening support to the point where he can defeat the Ukrainian resistance.

But he is counting on the EU forgetting what happened when Europe let Hitler “have” German-speaking areas of Czechoslovakia (and then the rest of the country). They haven’t forgotten. They would prefer we back them, but if we don’t, they will not look the other way this time.

[Celerity]

13. It is not our (Europe) resolve I worry about the most, on balance.

[DFW]

15. Agreed

It costs Putin less to influence one country’s media than 25 of them, especially when the USA provides him with so many dim-witted (and willing) accomplices.

[2naSalit]

19. +1

[Initech]

8. Keep the MAGA shitheads from getting the White House at all costs!

Holy shit, the fate of the world is at stake here,and we can't let these conspiracy theorist lunatics win.

[Beastly Boy]

9. Way too early to panic

This is one, very unlikely, scenario out of many far more likely ones. It is far from being the near certainty the article would like you to believe it is.

[Recycle_Guru]

16. clearly you are typing attention grabbing headlines--what you say is false

the right wing may be in the pay of Putin, but US policy is tightly aligned with EU / NATO policy vis a vis Ukraine

[Celerity]

24. I did not not 'type the headline', it is exactly the wording of the title. Do not try to assign

actions to me that I did not do.



as for this

what you say is false

1. I did not say it.

2. We do not yet know what will happen in terms of future elections, so your calling it false is unprovable at the present moment. The article is an opinion, just as your disagreeing with it is also an opinion. Time will tell.

[Elessar Zappa]

20. US support for Ukraine will continue.

[Mister Ed]

21. I remain optimistic. I think the U.S. military must be greatly pleased with the situation.

At a terrible cost to themselves, the Ukrainians are significantly weakening the principle adversary of the U.S. They're also exposing to U.S. military strategists the flaws and vulnerabilities in Russia's military systems, strategies, and infrastructure. This is a boon to our military planners, and might provide a greater return on investment than just about any other U.S. military spending could.

I also imagine that America's Military Industrial Complex is eager for the inevitable contracts to backfill the materials being provided to Ukraine, and I'm afraid it's all too true that our Military Industrial Complex carries a great deal of influence, and tends to get what it wants.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

22. Face it: ALL Russiapublicans hate democracy and love Putini.

It is no longer the "Republican" party; it's the Russiapublican party.

[roamer65]

25. The Repukes are Putler whores.

Plain and simple.

[DemocraticPatriot]

26. So far, it appears to me that the anti-Ukraine GOP lawmakers

have only been a very loud minority...


but that could change when the next votes come down.


The GOP base does seem to be headed into a 'no more aid' majority,
as the orange god has sent the message down from on high...

Where the GQP base goes, the GQP politicians think they have to follow,
since they have no political courage whatsoever...


Sad

[Mad_Machine76]

27. Not entirely accurate headline

It’s the GOP that wants to bail on Ukraine. Official policy under Biden is to continue to support Ukraine.