The true depth of the GOP's trouble

[dsc]

From 1968 through 1988, inclusive, the Democratic party won only one election (1976) which was pretty much a fluke. Carter won the entire confederacy except Oklahoma and Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio, PA, New York, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Hawaii. He did this with just under 52% of the vote. The GOP won a majority of the popular vote in 4 of the other 5 and a plurality in 68. By 1988 was over the Democrats wondered if we could ever win.

From 1992 to 2012 inclusive, the GOP has lost the popular vote in 5 of the 6 elections and only won the popular vote in an election which was a fluke. Bush was given the Presidency and we were at war. He managed to get a bit over 51% of the vote and a more narrow win than Carter's in the EC. In Bush's two wins he won a grand total of 3 eastern states (WV twice, NH once). He did poorly in the west as well. While he did win a majority of the states in the west, he got creamed electorally. In 2000 he lost that region 81 to 35. In 2004 he lost that region 77 to 44. The totals are different between those years due to the census. Bush got his wins by winning huge in the South and decisively in Midwest. In the other 4 elections the GOP got wiped out in the east Clinton lost no eastern states, Obama lost 2 in 2 elections (WV twice). Clinton won the Midwest 100 to 29 in both 92 and 96. Obama won the same region 97 to 27 in 08 and then 80 to 38. Clinton won the west 96 to 23 in 92 and 93 to 26 in 96 Obama in 2012 98 to 30, in 08 Obama won 95 to 25. Even in the South, our worst region, we held our losses, in 92 Clinton lost 47 to 114 and in 96 he lost 59 to 104. Obama lost 42 to 113 in 2012 and 55 to 101 in 08.

Take out Bush's two fluke wins (one stolen and one incumbency that he hadn't earned) and the GOP is a rump party that has trouble even blowing out in its own region. The South is the only region that the GOP is competitive in at the Presidential level. Congressionally they have a similar problem that only gerrymandering saved them from. In New England there is not a single GOP Congressman (not one). In the mid Atlantic outside of the gerrymandered states of PA and NJ they have 7 seats (6 in NY and 1 in MD). Out west CA is now 38 to 15 in the US House and that is under a less gerrymandered map. Washington State is 6 to 4. Oregon is 4 to 1. Nevada 2 to 2. Colorado is 3 to 4. Arizona is 5 to 4. New Mexico 2 to 1. Only Utah is a large state where we are on the short end of the stick (1 to 3).

On top of this is the Senate disaster that this year was. In New England they have only two Senators left and Collins is on political life support. In the mid Atlantic they have one Senator out of 12 and no realistic prospects. They lost Senate seats in IN, ME, and MA. They only gained one seat, in NE. It is possible they lost yet another seat in AZ when all the votes are counted. In the swing states this time we won every Senate seat save one (NV).

In 92 we started our rebound with a man from Hope. But we had realized we reached rock bottom. The GOP is like an addict in need of intervention. The excuses that the GOP are coming up with for how they lost are reminicent of those that addicts come up with for why they aren't addicts. We lost because the other side bought the vote. We lost because they turned out urban voters. We lost because we didn't have voter id laws. The GOP is close to rock bottom but they don't know it. Barring an intervention, we will be winning Presidential elections for years to come.

[DollarBillHines]

1. Texas will be Blue within eight years and it will be over for the assholes.

That's why they are screaming in their shrill, small voices.

They know that the end is in sight.

[dsc]

16. maybe

It will flip at the Presidential level before it does so at any other. Then it will break on the at large elections and finally in districts. I think if we run a Hispanic on our ticket in 2020 we would have a 50% shot at Texas, if not then it would likely take another 4 years.

[coalition_unwilling]

2. Few can even say any longer what the Rape-publi-scum are even for. We know they

are against blacks, women, Latinos, LGBT and the poor, but aside from the 1%, what are they for???

In my opinion, the debate in this country should be and I hope will be between Obama and centrist Dems and Bernie Sanders and Democratic Socialists. The Rape-publi-scum deserve to garner no more than 10-15% support in any election.

[dsc]

3. kick

[randome]

4. Very true.

The GOP is done for. All that's left is watching the corpse disintegrate. It will take a while.

[cliffordu]

5. Kicketty. Fer sher.

[Change has come]

6. Good work dsc.

[bluestate10]

7. I don't want to become over confident. We need to aggressively launch a version of Dean's

50 state strategy, except jack it up. We know what we are, we are an inclusive party. We should compete for Whites that aren't voting with us, but don't have religious or racial reasons for not voting with us. We need to vigorously compete for Texas, Arizona and seal the deal with Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia for good. We need to protect our backs, we can't ignore our reliable blue states, we must work to pull in even more voters in blue states. We must compete in state and local elections whenever they happen, where ever they happen.

[dsc]

8. Of course

even at our party's low point we held a multitude of state legislatures and Congressional seats. We held the US House from Ike's time until 1994 without break and from Hoover's time until 1996 without 4 years break. The GOP will use its rump status to rule as much as they can. In 2014 we need to work on getting the governorships and legislatures of the midwest states and the mid atlantic states we lost in 2009 and 2010. In the same mid Atlantic region we have all but 1 US Senator we have two high profile governors and a right wing state lege.

[Cayenne]

9. Libertarian party coming on stronger to

[dsc]

10. that can cut both ways

I know some Libertarians who would likely vote GOP because they are hard corps on the economic parts of Libertarianism. I know others who would likely vote Dem because they are hard corps on the personal liberty parts of Libertarianism. I tend to think much of the increase is coming from the second group not the first.

[ProSense]

11. National Exit Polls Table: 1972 to 2008

National Exit Polls Table
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

[dsc]

13. thanks neat link

it should be remembered as with all polls there is a MOE so we should be careful making mountains out of small differences from election to election (for example DU has had sport with Bush getting 80% of Mormons to Romney's 78% when that difference is within the MOE) but on the big groups this data is a gold mine. Sadly the 2012 data was not as complete and thus won't be able to be used as a direct comparison.

[loudsue]

12. North Carolina has turned red in both the governorship and the legislature....

the legislature turned red for the first time in 100 years in 2010.

There is something going on very wrong in this state. But it scares the p--- out of me. It's like people in rural NC have drunk the kool-aid and are ready to go to war.

[dsc]

14. we lost the lege in 2010

and thanks to gerrymandering may literally never get it back. I hope the governor's race is a one off with us having a woefully unprepared candidate against a well prepared one with the predictable results. On the plus side we won most of the Consul of state positions. In many states you end up winning or losing nearly all of those when you have a wave type election.

[InsultComicDog]

15. It looks like that but I don't think we can take it for granted.

We won big in 2006 and 2008, and lost big in 2010. We won pretty big in 2012, but 2014 we won't have Obama at the top of any ticket helping drive the vote, and it's hard to tell whether a less dynamic candidate would have even won this year.

I think also losing so many state houses in 2010 hurt us a lot with the gerrymandering of Congress. Plus the real game changer still hasn't happened yet - replacing one or two conservative Supreme Court justices with more liberal members.

[davidn3600]

17. I've said this before...it doesn't matter unless the electorate changes

Ultimately Congress will represent the people. We are a divided nation right now, and guess what...so is Congress. We are divided right down the middle...so is Congress.

What many here are hoping for is super-majorities of the current Democratic party. That's not going to happen unless the electorate become more left-wing. Voters have to change their political thinking.

Even if the GOP fractures and breaks up, do those voters vanish? No. Yeah the social conservatives will fade away into insignificance. But libertarians and moderates will start running as Democrats and will be accepted because of their center-left social ideas. And in primaries they may start defeating liberals. It could even cause divisions in voting blocs the far-left dominate right now (like the youth). They could move the party to the middle.

My point is, you would have a political re-alignment. And you really can't predict how that would go. It could very likely not only marginalize the far-right....but also the far-left. And this has happened in this country numerous times. The parties change somewhat through the ages. If the GOP falls apart, the Democrats could become a very different party.

Remember that 49% of the country voted against Obama. If the GOP falls apart, those 49% are not going to suddenly start voting for liberal government.

[ProSense]

18. Clarify: Only 47 percent voted Republican. n/t

[davidn3600]

19. Only 51% voted for Obama

47% voted Republican, 2% voted for someone else.

If the GOP fades out. Do the libertarians and moderates go down with the ship with the religious nuts? I very much doubt it. They will jump at the first evidence of trouble. They are already half way out of the door because of that mess at the convention.

Like I said, I think many libertarians will start running as Democrats and knocking liberals out of Congress. A lot of the youth already support them because of their social agenda.

Libertarians make up AT LEAST 10% of the GOP. That's based on the number of votes Ron Paul got in the primaries. If those 10% bolted from the GOP and joined the Democrats, what will that do to the Democratic party? And this is only libertarians. Moderates make up another 1/3rd of the GOP. What if they bolt too? Suddenly Democrats become the "The Big Tent Party." These people won't run as 3rd party because they know they wouldn't win. So they would register as Democrats and try to win primaries.

Think about it.

[ProSense]

20. Yes, but your point was

"If the GOP falls apart, those 49% are not going to suddenly start voting for liberal government."

A good chunk of the remaining 2 percent will "start voting for liberal government."

In fact, the government isn't liberal enough for them.

"If the GOP fades out. Do the libertarians and moderates go down with the ship with the religious nuts? I very much doubt it. They will jump at the first evidence of trouble. They are already half way out of the door because of that mess at the convention. "

Moderates? The GOP lost moderates two decades ago.

"Like I said, I think many libertarians will start running as Democrats and knocking liberals out of Congress. A lot of the youth already support them because of their social agenda. "

Are you serious?

Here is the youth vote for Democrats:

1992 - 43 percent
1996 - 53 percent
2000 - 48 percent
2004 - 54 percent
2008 - 66 percent

The notion that libertarians are going to start knocking out liberals is a fantasy.

[davidn3600]

21. You are missing my point

No matter what, with a fading GOP, the Democrats will be watered down as a growing majority.

You are saying a good chunk of that 49% will start voting liberal? What gives you any indication that is true? Where is your evidence of that? If these people just voted for Mitt Romney...you think in a few years time they will one day wake up, notice the GOP is gone, and start voting for guys like Obama?

That ain't happening, dude.

[dsc]

22. We were running under pretty bad circumstances

and got more votes for the House than they did. If it weren't for gerrymandering we would have a small majority in the House. In 2008, we wound up with a pretty large majority and I think the new normal for Presidential years is somewhere between what we saw in 2008 and what we saw in 2012. That would be a decent majority for us, maybe in the neighborhood of 25 seats.

[warrprayer]

23. kick n/t