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(116,464 posts) Fri Nov 16, 2012, 07:52 PM Nov 2012

Obama's Lead Expanding (but it's a tie!)

Obama's Lead Expanding (but it's a tie!)

by tremayne

Ten days after the election and votes are still being tallied in California and other states. The morning after the election AP said President won by 1.3 million votes nationally, about a two percent margin. The electoral vote was then 303-206 with Florida still undeclared.

We know the electoral college ended up a cushy 332-206, a 126 vote margin. Now we have an idea what the scope of the popular vote margin will be. After updates this afternoon, the race stands and at:

Obama 50.7%
Romney 47.7%

It's a 3% margin and still growing. What about raw votes? Right now:

Obama 63.2 million
Romney 59.5 million

The margin is 3.7 million and could expand to nearly 4 before it's over. Now, I've heard some Republicans say the 2012 race was closer than 2004. Silly, but math is not always their strong suit. Here are the 2004 margins for George Bush over John Kerry :

Bush + 2.4%
Bush +3 million votes
Bush +35 electoral college

And, of course, Bush had only Ohio as his margin of victory. Obama carried every contested state except NC (and the fact Republicans spent $43 million to hold NC tells you something as well).

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/16/1162425/-Obama-s-Lead-Expanding-but-it-s-a-tie

Seriously, Kerry had to overcome a massive Republican effort to suppress the vote, from long lines to intimidation at the polls. There were even blackouts and ballot tampering. Yet Kerry narrowed the popular vote margin to 2.4 percent.

Unlike Mitt, Kerry ran a smart race focusing on an electoral path to victory. By so doing he came within one state (Ohio) of winning.

Bush got 286 to Kerry's 251. Flip Ohio and Kerry wins 271 to 266. That was a close race.

Mitt had no chance. Even if he took Florida, he lost Ohio by nearly 2 points, Virginia by 3 points and Colorado by 5 points. He lost NH by nearly 6 points, and all the rest was simply MSM noise. His campaign was built on pure arrogance, and the last minute push, aided by the media narrative of a surge, was an attempt to compensate for a lousy candidate and his flawed campaign.