General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy the "Political Polls are rigged" mantra is wrong and dangerous
It is an article of faith among many here that "the media" (not just Fox News and the like) are biased against Democrats. It is also an article of faith that said media is releasing Biased or fake polls to shift voter opinions away from Democratic candidates.
The problem with these assumptions is that "the media" doesn't do polling. They hire commercial market research firms to do it for him. While there are certainly polling firms that go into the business with a political bias, most do this as part of a broader business and have other, non-political clients (Coca Cola, General Motors, Delta Airlines etc.) To get that business (which is a much more substantial part of their business than high-profile political polls), they have to be seen as accurate and objective in their data collection.
There's also another category of polls: Universities (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Siena, Emerson, Marist). These are from academic market research programs that using poll preparation and data analysis as teaching tools. As with corporate pollsters, there's little value in carrying out polls that are intentionally biased.
The reason discounting polls out of hand is dangerous is that developing good political strategy depends on objectively analyzing available data. Almost every poll says the national political choice (yes, not applicable State by State, but there's no data suggest the races in WI, MI, PA etc are significantly different) is a matter of single digits. Can that change over a year? Of course. But to discount that data now is to say that you believe the race ISN'T close and that either Biden or Trump is comfortably ahead. Either assumption will skew your political behavior to the detriment of the camapaign.
Native
(6,107 posts)discounted because "landlines."
everyonematters
(3,524 posts)brooklynite
(96,882 posts)...is that polling DIDN'T predict a "red wave". It predicted multiple close races, which is what we got. Analysts (not unreasonably) assumed those races would break for the Republicans).
JohnSJ
(94,985 posts)have changed that the polls do not account for.
1. Many people do not answer calls from numbers they do not recognize because of all the spam calls.
2. National polls and favorability polls are not how presidents are elected and may give misleading impressions.
3. Some Democrats may "prefer" a different candidate in a polled question over Biden, but that does not translate that they won't vote for him in the general election. Republicans for the most part will stand in unison in their view of trump, and will vote for him in the general election.
I also think the mindset that the past will predict the probable action may not be correct. For example, it is assumed that young people won't turnout in large numbers to vote, because that has been the case in past election. I don't think those assumptions can be relied upon anymore because of the acceleration of changes that have occurred that will affect people. Such as abortion, climate change, voting rights, civil rights, etc.
State polls on the other hand, I believe more accurately predict the outcome in a state.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)What you're saying is: "I can't think of a a way to accurately collect polling data, so it can't be done".
This is part of their job. If their clients didn't find the data accurate, they wouldn't hire the firm (nb: that includes candidates up to and including the Biden campaign).
Polliing firms have moved to cell phones, texts and online collections. There are variable levels of accuracy, but that's why people pay them for the service.
JohnSJ
(94,985 posts)state polls were the worst in at least two decades, according to the new, comprehensive report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research.
.....
Those prime suspects will hardly be comforting to pollsters and those who depend on them, from political campaigns to the news media. The most likely if far from certain culprit for off-kilter polling results is that key groups of people dont answer polls in the first place.
Decreasing response rates have been a major source of concern for pollsters for more than a decade. But the politicization of polling during the Trump era including the feedback loop from the former president, who has falsely decried poll results he doesnt like as fake or deliberately aimed at suppressing enthusiasm for answering polls among GOP voters appears to be skewing the results, with some segment of Republicans refusing to participate in surveys.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/18/pollsters-2020-polls-all-wrong-500050
As for your assertion if the data wasn't accurate, they would not hire them, I disagree. They use them because it has been the traditional method of trying to access public sentiment, and the dynamics are changing faster than they are able to account for those changes.
Whether it is cell phones, landlines, online collections, a good number of people are not participating, and giving out that information.
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3710954-2022-polling-the-bad-the-ugly-and-the-really-ugly/
PortTack
(34,071 posts)Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)trumps support.
inthewind21
(4,616 posts)People not answering their cell phones have to do with anything? I see this repeated over and over. You think NO ONE in the entire country ever answers?
Pretty sure we are ALL aware a poll isn't how a president is elected. It's called a poll or survey for a reason. They ask a question and I answer.
It seems to me that you have never actually been polled and are assuming quite a bit.
JohnSJ
(94,985 posts)National surveys of the 2020 presidential contest were the least accurate in 40 years,
state polls were the worst in at least two decades, according to the new, comprehensive report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research.
.....
Those prime suspects will hardly be comforting to pollsters and those who depend on them, from political campaigns to the news media. The most likely if far from certain culprit for off-kilter polling results is that key groups of people dont answer polls in the first place.
Decreasing response rates have been a major source of concern for pollsters for more than a decade. But the politicization of polling during the Trump era including the feedback loop from the former president, who has falsely decried poll results he doesnt like as fake or deliberately aimed at suppressing enthusiasm for answering polls among GOP voters appears to be skewing the results, with some segment of Republicans refusing to participate in surveys.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/18/pollsters-2020-polls-all-wrong-500050
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3710954-2022-polling-the-bad-the-ugly-and-the-really-ugly/
I don't answer calls from numbers I don't recognize, and I don't do online polls when surveyed.
and while I may be the exception, I wonder how many exceptions are out there that do the same thing?
you are 1 in millions. So you don't do polls. Why all the concern over something you state you aren't even involved in?
JohnSJ
(94,985 posts)influence public opinion
PortTack
(34,071 posts)leftstreet
(36,204 posts)Polls were deemed more accurate when it was assumed polling was done by landline, and people were more willing to pick up an unidentified caller.
That's not the real world now. If pollsters could explain how they're gathering their data it could lend to their legitimacy.
GuppyGal
(1,748 posts)said.
inthewind21
(4,616 posts)assuming they are all done by phone. Some are, some aren't. I have got polls via text, email AND land line. Yes, they ARE contacting cell phones.
Sympthsical
(9,895 posts)Funny story. The other day I got a text. It was a man telling me about what he'd been up to lately and included a pic.
I had never met this person before in my life. Not a bad looking man. I'd wondered if, perhaps, he was someone I'd talked with on a dating app once and had simply fallen out of contact with. It happens sometimes. Go on a date or two, lose contact, then they reach out up to five years later, and I'm sitting there like, "I do not remember this person at all."
Anyway. So, I'm like, "Why is this handsome fellow texting me out of the blue?" I'm all settled down now.
Then I scrolled up and saw previous missed messages.
No, I will not be sending you a campaign donation.
And stop sending me pics! Weirdos.
Silent3
(15,909 posts)I have to argue with people here about this all of the time.
A related canard is "national polls are useless" when talking about presidential races.
No, they aren't!
While it's true that the electoral vote, not the popular vote, determines the winner, you still don't need state-by-state information to tell if the race is close or not. Whenever someone wins by electoral vote and not popular vote, it's a close race.
It's also true that conditions often can change a lot from what polls show many months before an election, but that doesn't make early polls "worthless" (a word that so many love to use about polling). Those polls still tell you how much work needs to be done between the time of the poll and election day.
Jarqui
(10,409 posts)Trump lost something like 211 of them.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#polls
Then Trump says "they stole it"
As part of the theft did they rig 211 polls from a variety of pollsters?
I realize they're just polls but always wondered why the media didn't confront him on that ... because Trump often loves to cite polls.
former9thward
(33,156 posts)It seems that would be something Trump would say.
Iwasthere
(3,308 posts)He thought it was rigged because he couldn't have lost because HE felt he had it rigged.
Response to brooklynite (Original post)
PortTack This message was self-deleted by its author.
Aepps22
(279 posts)Polls are data points that are useful to identify weaknesses or strengths but they aren't a guarantee of actual results. I think we all would do well to remove the emotional connection to polling (we're ahead vs we're behind) and focus on what the data says are the weaknesses of our candidates and do our part to help mitigate those weaknesses.
Voter turnout will always win the day. To the extent polling impacts turnout, we as individuals need to do our part to help get people registered and to the polls.
Happy Hoosier
(8,193 posts)Polls are only as good as their population models.
Elessar Zappa
(15,202 posts)polls havent been as accurate lately as they were in the past. But yes, we have to treat this as a close race and act accordingly. Donate, volunteer, and get out the vote.
Response to brooklynite (Original post)
elocs This message was self-deleted by its author.
Fix The Stupid
(957 posts)But other conspiracies..such as the ENTIRE Media in the US (even North America) is colluding to hurt the democrats.
You just gotta laugh sometimes.
"MY" Conspiracy theory? Totally legit...
"YOUR" Conspiracy theory? Met with ridicule and hand waving...
Again, comedy gold.
totodeinhere
(13,218 posts)a Democrat winning. Yet we continue to see Republicans winning elections.
keithbvadu2
(39,247 posts)(from Statistics 101 class) A telephone poll taken in the 20s or 30s indicated that a certain candidate would win.
Didnt happen. The other guy won.
Turns out that it was not a sample of the general population.
Only the relatively well-to-do could afford phones so they did not sample the common folk.
doc03
(36,291 posts)had this "Blue Wall" and "She got this" in 2016. Hopefully these bad polls will motivate people
to get out and vote. I heard just the other day that Nate Silver had Obama's chances at being re-elected at
17% at this time.
DestinyIsles
(263 posts)Remember Republicans were supposed to win the House the by 10 points with getting 25 + seats near the end of 2021 as polls were predicting. They wound up winning only 5 seats and winning popular vote by 3 points. No one is saying discount polls but they should be suspect this early out. I would be saying this even if Biden was leading by 10 points over Trump. So give me a break on the poll lecturing.