General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAre there really 20% African Americans who will vote for trump over Biden according to the NY Times Sienna poll
of swing states released today?
Political scientist Larry Sabato, an American political scientist and political analys is questioning it. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, where he is also the founder and director of the Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Sabato
On CNN Sabato remarked:
"Speaking with CNN host Fredricka Whitfield, the founder and director of the Center for Politics, asserted no one should get shook up about the polling this far from the election, telling the CNN host, "Well, it's a low point for President Biden and, as I said, it's not unusual in the third year. But I'm sure they have specific plans to reach out to those groups. and often those groups don't engage in a major way until the end of a campaign or toward the end of a campaign, that's when they're contacted."
he continued:
"The poll had, I believe, Black voters at 22 percent for Donald Trump. I'm not allowed to bet on elections, Fred, but I sure wish I was because I would love to bet multiple people that the black vote for Trump in the end will be somewhere between 8 and 13 percent max."
"Twenty-tow percent? Come on," he scoffed as the CNN host laughed. "I mean, it really causes you to question how representative this poll is of what's going to happen. I believe that it tells you some of what's going to happen if the election were held today and the election isn't being held today — it's a year away."
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-black-voters-2666156696/
While I can see some African American voter not entirely pleased with some issues with President Biden, I also question if 20% of that voting block would actually vote for trump over Biden?
As someone mentioned in the comment section, we must be missing the "rising black neo-masochist movement", which would account for their trump support. (Sarcasm)
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Lovie777
(22,992 posts)Democrats, and many others from all sides will prefer a free society.
TheBlackAdder
(29,981 posts)
LiberalFighter
(53,544 posts)Silent Type
(12,412 posts)Lovie777
(22,992 posts)voters who are concerned about their bodies, voter rights, civil rights from all side in the USA.
TheRealNorth
(9,647 posts)That the increased percentage of African Americans (AA) that either vote or saying they will vote for Republicans is reflective of decreased enthusiasm to vote for Democrats, as opposed to an endorsement of Republicans.
Essentially, I am thinking these types of polls are a result of AA's that may have been Democratic voters just saying they are not going to vote. (Or prevented from voting)
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)that they are polling?
I assume they self-identify.
TheRealNorth
(9,647 posts)Usually,.the polls only include data on either "likely" or "registered voters". So if you say you not likely to vote, your not really "undecided" I think.
I don't know if the pollsters ask any follow-up questions about voting preference or reasons for not voting of the people who don't fall into the "likely" or "registered voter" samples.
Celerity
(54,417 posts)in terms of black support.
It is possible that black voters (and I would especially focus on the black male vote) in these 6 (or enough of the 6 to raise up the percentage) swing states tend to be less monolithically Democratic than in the nation as a whole.
dchill
(42,660 posts)...the black vote for Trump in the end will have to visit him in prison. So will all the other colors of votes for Trump. Or, possibly, a psychiatric institution.
ggma
(711 posts)Nobody I know.
gg
Dirty Socialist
(3,252 posts)Mainly because of his age, some because of inflation, which would be unearrented if they knew the facts about inflation
videohead5
(2,950 posts)Because he is 3 years younger than President Biden? He's also overweight and out of shape.
captain queeg
(11,780 posts)They are the ones who only listen to what a politician says and doesn’t look at what they do.
Shermann
(9,062 posts)
CanonRay
(16,171 posts)My guess is, it's bullshit.
ananda
(35,153 posts)Or: no way in hell!
You choose.
UncleTomsEvilBrother
(954 posts)...the discussion should be based on "why" reasons. Black women vote at higher levels than any other demographic. They vote for DEMS at higher rates than other group.
The DEMS have policies that could cater/keep Black women as the base - health care. Republicans seem to know this. That's why they have stopped messing with Obamacare. DEMS should tout their health care initiatives over and over again if they want Black women to stay home.
All women care about the health care for themselves and their children. Nobody votes on it as a wedge issue like Black women do, though.
TheBlackAdder
(29,981 posts)Not going to have much influence on them.
bdamomma
(69,532 posts)Won't Matter to tRump, no lives will matter to him. The media has a fixation on these freaking polls, anything could happen in a years' time.
eppur_se_muova
(41,950 posts)Hope the laugh is worth it.
As an African American I say hell no. Every four years we go through this bullshit on the African American vote slipping from Democrats to republicans with some idiotic polling and every election Democrats get anywhere between 85% to 90% of the black vote in Presidential elections.
PortTack
(35,820 posts)Oh please!!
There are others posting this poll with the caveat that we are about to lose. I hope these same ppl will remember their posting when the ‘24 election is won by the Dems.
kimbutgar
(27,250 posts)Sorry just think the 20% is a bs sampling.
PortTack
(35,820 posts)PortTack
(35,820 posts)To that 7 million win. Yes yes, I know it’s only the popular vote and there are those that will say he only won by 40k. Okay…Frump only won by approx 18-20k. PA, MI and WI where frump won in ‘16 have an entirely different landscape than in ‘16 or ‘20, much much more democratic.
Frump was an unknown in ‘16. Now that ppl know who he is, ppl are terrified of the idea of another frump presidency.
It’s utter nonsense to say young ppl, in the end won’t vote for president Biden. They may not vote, but not anything like it used to be. Look at the PACs and dot. Orgs young ppl like David Hogg are heading. The trend for young ppl in this country is for more freedoms, not less. They are not dumb or uniformed, quite the opposite. Their future does not include a scamming con artist like the orange mass who may very well be in a home prison situation by next year.
Aussie105
(7,927 posts)It is difficult to design a non biased poll, especially impossible to write one that looks at political voting 12 months away.
Must question the motivation behind the design and publication of this poll result. (Social Engineering comes to mind.)
PortTack
(35,820 posts)
Quixote1818
(31,155 posts)next year.
The_Casual_Observer
(27,742 posts)Speculation crystal balls.
calguy
(6,154 posts)All polls this far out are bullshit. Trump hasn't gained any new supporters since last time, that much is a given. It's also safe to assume he's lost a far amount of support based on his indictments alone. Add to that he'll likely to be a convicted felon a year from now, If he lost in 2020 and has done nothing to expand his base, one can only assume that this poll is meaningless.
Mr.Bill
(24,906 posts)Maybe they won't vote for Biden, maybe they will vote third party, maybe they won't vote at all. The thing is, if they voted for Trump last time, it won't matter for Biden how they vote or even whether they will vote. They will be lost Trump votes that will not be replaced.
I will say if they don't vote at all, it will hurt republicans down ballot.
calguy
(6,154 posts)These early polls really don't mean a thing this far out.